patrick.net

Timing markets is hard. I'd just go with the fundamentals.

If a stock has a low P/E and a good solid business, it's probably OK to buy. Even better if it pays a dividend.

I'm all about dividends Patrick. I have a lot of positions that had 5% or more dividends when I first bought and have appreciated since I got them. In my IRA and 401k thought it is all funds, I rode out the last downturn, but my new strategy is to change my balance between cash and stock and have a little more cash on hand for the down market. I'll miss some of the up, but I think I can miss some of the down too. It's not an all or nothing move though, I don't like to move everything at once.

I agree then. I think it's good to have some money on hand to pick up good deals when the market staggers.

2008 was actually a great time to buy. Seemed like the world was ending, but it didn't.

I'm out of the market by this time next year. Just don't care to toss the dice anymore.

Maybe I'll buy a house..... :-)

jvolstad says

I'm out of the market by this time next year. Just don't care to toss the dice anymore.

Maybe I'll buy a house..... :-)

NOOOOOOO!!!!!!

jvolstad says

I'm out of the market by this time next year. Just don't care to toss the dice anymore.

Maybe I'll buy a house..... :-)

Why not buy now when prices have still not peaked?

fil says

I'm all about dividends Patrick. I have a lot of positions that had 5% or more dividends when I first bought and have appreciated since I got them. In my IRA and 401k thought it is all funds, I rode out the last downturn, but my new strategy is to change my balance between cash and stock and have a little more cash on hand for the down market. I'll miss some of the up, but I think I can miss some of the down too. It's not an all or nothing move though, I don't like to move everything at once.

Fil,

Disclaimer: I don't have a very good track record with stocks, but I believe we might have another month up so your target is right on. I'm still 25% in cash. I'm thinking of going 40-50% cash once S&P hit 1,500 or by the end of this month, whichever comes first.

Historically speaking, bear market lasts about 10 months while bull market lasts around 33 months.

The bear market started in early 2000 bottomed out in the third quarter of 2002, which lasted for about 2.5 years, but that bull market lasted for over 5 years. This last bear market lasted 15 months. Wouldn't that make this bull market last about 4 years??? We're about 3.5 years into it now. Are we going to have a recession early next year? Hmm, we're cutting it pretty close now. :)

E-man says

I'm still 25% in cash. I'm thinking of going 40-50% cash once S&P hit 1,500 or by the end of this month, whichever comes first.

My strategy is pretty similar E-Man. I am doing most of the stock to cash movements in my retirement accounts to avoid the tax implications of my brokerage positions. I think I am about 25% cash now and will be somewhere between 40 and 50 % by the n end of the month. I will keep moving a bit every week after that. I'll probably start incrementally increase my stock holdings again when the S&P is around 1000. If it never goes that low I will need a plan B.

2008 was actually a great time to buy. Seemed like the world was ending, but it didn't.

Patrick,
I was unemployed in 2008 and continued to buy stocks. I picked up some GE just under 6, got some dividends and sold around 16. If only I had been employed through that period. I would have bought so much more stock. Everything I bought in 2008 and 2009 made a good return.

I wish I had had the guts to buy in 2008 when everything was crashing hard.

I wish I had had the guts to buy in 2008 when everything was crashing hard.

Not only was I unemployed, but I had a baby on the way as well. Everything I invested in was big, but we have seen big companies fall and leave investors hanging. It was a bit stressful to pull the trigger on some trades. For the most part they went down after I bought them, but eventually back up.