patrick.net

David Losh says

I think all the money that could ever have been wrung out of the housing market wil be reinvested into huge corporate housing projects that will wipe out the small investors.

What I really think is that a lot of the small investors think they are bigger than they are, and will get creamed by a newer concept in housing.

Corporate housing? Do you mean something akin to company towns?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Company_town

I suppose what is old is new again...

robertoaribas says

David Losh says

It's pretty well accepted that QE !, 2, and 3 failed.

I think he made this last bone head move of buying mortgages because he knows he's gone after the election.

does "pretty well accepted" mean some anonymous people with no economics education think so on line? Because, the majority of eocnomists give Bernanke pretty high marks for his handling of what could have been the 2nd great depression.

Again, you don't need to study economics, it's basic math. If you are really good at math you can create some complicated constructs and slice and dice them and then sell them as investment vehicles and hide the simple truth behind complex formulas, but under the hood everything can be reduced to basic math which just is. If you believe the man behind the curtain can create wealth out of thin air or increase government spending without equally hurting all the ones that are not on the receiving end then I have a bridge to sell you..

New Renter says

Corporate housing? Do you mean something akin to company towns?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Company_town

I suppose what is old is new again...

part of that is what some of these Companies do with Free Kitchens... and entertainment. Keep you at work as much as possible like Google (how evil).

when i got stated in SV the point was to leave after 5pm ASAP to have a real life, and many did just that. but today the cool hipsters have been brainwashed.

Will Google's Housing Plan Do No Evil?
http://realestate.aol.com/blog/2010/02/22/will-googles-housing-plan-do-no-evil/

Despite the generous perks enjoyed by the Mountain View, Calif., company's workers, such as free lunch and dinner, on-site medical clinics and subsidized day-care centers, many still put up with inconvenient commutes to Google's remote corporate headquarters.

Now Google is urging Mountain View city officials to change local zoning laws to allow the company to build six- and seven-story housing units in the North Bayshore near Highway 101, Silicon Valley's sclerotic traffic artery. After a tentative nod of support from city planners and council members, the officials reconsidered, citing potential pitfalls such as increased population density and more local traffic. Does Google's housing plan for the future violate the ubiquitous company's mantra "Don't be evil"?

David Losh says

E-man says

I doubt it. He's been doing a fantastic job.

It's pretty well accepted that QE !, 2, and 3 failed.

I think he made this last bone head move of buying mortgages because he knows he's gone after the election.

Looks like my beloved Bernanke still has his job. :)

New Renter says

E-man says

David Losh says

dublin hillz says

keeps Bernanke

Bernanke is toast, either way.

I doubt it. He's been doing a fantastic job.

At providing a lucky few to collect high returns on borrowed money in the form of rent and property appreciation while simultaneously dumping the vast majority of investment risk to the taxpayer? If that is what you mean then yes, he is doing a bang up job.

The money was available to anyone that has a job with a FICO score above 620. Don't tell me you don't fit in those criteria. Properties are available all over the country. If you're not willing to take the risk, you have no one to blame but yourself wouldn't you agree?

I'm speaking from a person who stayed home for 1.5 years to take care of my newborn and still managed to acquire rental properties during this time with other people's credit and money. You're in a much position than me. I'm not sure what you're complaining about.

War says

E-man says

still managed to acquire rental properties

And your losses are in the hundreds of thousands of dollars..... and growing.

I cannot argue with that. How can I dispute facts? :)

E-man says

The money was available to anyone that has a job with a FICO score above 620. Don't tell me you don't fit in those criteria. Properties are available all over the country. If you're not willing to take the risk, you have no one to blame but yourself wouldn't you agree?

I'm speaking from a person who stayed home for 1.5 years to take care of my newborn and still managed to acquire rental properties during this time with other people's credit and money. You're in a much position than me. I'm not sure what you're complaining about.

I am not criticizing you - I might have done the same but I already was too far upside-down on my house - loans at favorable rates and terms were not likely to happen. I also had my hands full with my own 18 month old and other matters. Having just been burned in RE - Yes, I HAD taken a risk - I was also twice shy at the idea of doubling down, especially in the still out of whack Bay Area.

I AM criticizing what I consider to be a exacerbation of what I consider to be poor and shortsighted monetary policy. You are merely taking advantage of it as I might have done had my circumstances and understanding of the overall situation been more favorable.

War says

And your losses are in the hundreds of thousands of dollars..... and growing.

@War I think that I mostly agree that housing prices are falling, but the way you argue is so not helpful.

I think E-man makes some good arguments in favor of buying rental properties, even if prices were to fall. If rents don't tank, isn't he likely to be OK?

Would you be willing to lay out your thinking about that?

robertoaribas says

I get tired of him calling me a liar. You can take my economics predictions for whatever, but calling me a liar is uncalled for, when I back up everything I claim with verifiable links... see above for example. he should be permanently deleted on here, he subtracts from the value of this forum

Roberto, Roberto, Darrell/War is clearly correct about his claims of an impending price collapse in Phoenix. I mean prices have shot up from a price-to-income ratio of 2.25 last year to an astounding 2.95 or so now. That places Phoenix squarely in the affordable bracket so you'd better sell now before prices collapse to the 'ridiculously affordable' mark.

LiarWatch says

robertoaribas says

I get tired of him calling me a liar.

Then be truthful. It's that simple.

Says the bloke who spends so much time trying to wind him up about house prices in Phoenix despite the fact that market is ranked as affordable.

LiarWatch says

Just be truthful Bigbsy.

Says the person who's no doubt never set foot in Phoenix.

Heres an update: last month a house on my street sold for 1.2m and its 1000 sq feet smaller.

I now plan to flip this house.

If I get 1.2m I will retire - probably move to vegas its nice and sleazy.

You can retire on 400K?

400K wont keep you in depends, when the shit really hits the fan.

PockyClipsNow says

I now plan to flip this house.

Great idea!

Yes, timing is always difficult. This spring inventory is historically tight - so by late summer there should be some high comps that will justify my 1.2m price.

Also I am redoing some tile and painting, new sod - the usual flip so not ready to list yet.

IMO houses in this price range only make sense as a speculative investment you can live in. Thus i got the 5 year IO ARM. Prices might be higher in 2 years but I will certainly take a 200k+ profit in a year. That would put me at almost 1.2m net worth - certainly enough to retire in my 40's.

I was actually happier living in my 1 bedroom apt in a cool part of town when i was 'bubble sitting'. No yard,no home projects, no worries - used to walk to cool bars and drink. This house is nothing but projects staring me in the face daily.

1.2 mil won't cut it today in retirement...

David Losh says

I'm very different in my thinkink that housing will become an after thought
to the broader economy.

I think people will take on less debt, and look for ways to cut expenses
while they figure out how to make more money.

I think all the money that could ever have been wrung out of the housing
market wil be reinvested into huge corporate housing projects that will wipe out
the small investors.

I have problems for you to accuse people wrong based on your own philosophy. Your theory MIGHTY be right but there is not much analytical basis to support it. To me, you are not much different than Robert in terms of spreading a universal investment philosophy. At least he has more data to support his idea. Also, for investment, timing is super critical. You were right telling people to sell in 2006 but not after 2009. Keep in cash (or government bond) is probably safer but that is not the best strategy for everybody universally.

SoftShell says

1.2 mil won't cut it today in retirement...

You are correct.
That 1.2 million wont go far, but will also prohibit the retiree from other benefits, because of having 1.2 million in the bank. The bureaucracies still look at that 1.2 million like it's 1985 1.2 million. And not 2013 post Obama part 2 1.2 million.

David Losh says

E-man says

I doubt it. He's been doing a fantastic job.

It's pretty well accepted that QE !, 2, and 3 failed.

I think he made this last bone head move of buying mortgages because he knows he's gone after the election.

I am less certain that Bernenke is toast. His QEs may be failures but w/o them, Obama most likely lost the election and he was/wil be the one who appoints the FED chairman. With that being said, it is not a certainty that Ben will be back (he may not want to come back, either.)

You guys must have a donald trump lifestyle to say 1.2m wont last long. I should be able to get 8% return if I self manage rental houses or an apt building.

Even if I just leave it in the bank/bonds I wont run out of money for 20 years - then I can go on social security and live with a fat lady (my backup retirement plan).

BTW i am 44 yo.

It's all based on porky retiring in his 40's, as stated above.....
Medical alone will eat that chunk of cash up bigtime...

SFace says

CaptainShuddup says

You can retire on 400K?

400K wont keep you in depends, when the shit really hits the fan.

You sure can, why not?

say Porky is 65.

* Sell for 1.2M and pocket 430K net of fees and settlement.

* buy in Las Vegas for 130K.

* Use 300K and buy a lifetime annuity. At the current age, it is approximately 1,620 a month.

* I presume the guy has SS of around 2,000K a month.

No rent tp pay, 3,620 a month in income, tax eats up maybe $500, so $3,120.. There's senior citizen discount everywhere in Las Vegas. A round of golf for old residents in the weekday may by $15. He can golf every weekday.

* When he is old and sick and need more money, reverse mortgage the 130K home.

assuming SS is there for you as it exists today...
Last i read any changes would affect those below 55 only....
I'm in the 'safe' zone...

PockyClipsNow says

You guys must have a donald trump lifestyle to say 1.2m wont last long. I should be able to get 8% return if I self manage rental houses or an apt building.

Even if I just leave it in the bank/bonds I wont run out of money for 20 years - then I can go on social security and live with a fat lady (my backup retirement plan).

BTW i am 44 yo.

Again, I ask where on earth do these petty females exist? Maybe you all need to travel in more intelligent circles. Broaden your horizons.

errc says

Women love all that sq ft, regardless of what it costs nor what you have to sacrifice to afford and maintain the big spread, but there ain't no arguing with um.

Mobi says

You were right telling people to sell in 2006 but not after 2009.

I was talking about my strategy of not buying property after I saw the tax credit at work. There was no doubt prices would rise with QE 1, 2, and 3, I just didn't buy into a highly manipulated market place.

We invested instead in our small cleaning business, and it grew better than I ever expected. That cost me money. You can't just change from brokering Real Estate to being a small business owner without spending money.

I took a lot of flack for my decision from my buddies in the Real Estate business, but they are less skeptical now.

We sold a place in Atlanta in 2011 because it was losing value. Not all markets were, or are hot, you have to pick, and choose. I do tell people today to sell. This market place is a dream. People are buying anything half way decent, with escalator clauses, waiving inspection, and now waiving the over appraised value clause.

It's crazy.

Guys I know who are long time investors are selling. We are in the 60 year old range, and holding onto property is a pain.

So my advice isn't universal. I am purely a speculator, and a high risk investor. I am usually right in my assessments of the market place, but it's certainly not for everyone.

robertoaribas says

Well, it would certainly be impossible to buy BOTH a home,

I own homes, and we are selling one as soon as it's ready for the market. Why would anyone hold onto property in this economic climate? It makes no sense. Even in your dream world of rental profits, I see much more money in maintaining properties than owning them.

David Losh says

robertoaribas says

Well, it would certainly be impossible to buy BOTH a home,

I own homes, and we are selling one as soon as it's ready for the market. Why would anyone hold onto property in this economic climate? It makes no sense. Even in your dream world of rental profits, I see much more money in maintaining properties than owning them.

Reasons are simple:
In a highly manipulated housing market, it is not hard to make quick profit through flipping and/or rental if you know your local market (all short term. Long term wise, you have the risks of government pulling the support.) There are other options but they all have their own issues, for example:
1. Stocks - even more highly volatile and highly manipulated.
2. Bonds - either the rates are too low or they are gambles like stocks. (Some company bonds may have good enough rates but it depends on how confident you are to these companies.)
3. Gold/Silver - overvalued IMO.
4. Cash - safe and maybe not a bad idea if you don't need any dividend.
5. Small business: depending on the nature of business. For a fulltime worker, the options are limited (obviouly you need to work 40 hr/wk or more) except when you invest in other people's small business (not my preference).

Therefore, real estate becomes handy for many people who do not want to play the stock/bond market.

Mobi says

Therefore, real estate becomes handy for many people who do not want to play the stock/bond market.

In terms of investment Real Estate will always be there.

I disagree that buying into today's Real Estate market was a great idea, or any time after the global economic crash.

The economy changed. Wages, and employment have changed.

What really bothers me is the amount of debt. If you want to talk about investments, you should be talking about getting out of debt.

Even a mortgage at these historically low interest rates is 3.5%. A safe Mutual Fund is paying 4.5%. Getting rid of your debt is a much safer investment than anything else.

Next is this thing about how your renters are going to be paying your mortgage. I don't buy into that at all. Here in Seattle they are building apartments to accomodate the temporary workers we have coming in for tech jobs.

I think buyers are smarter than they were. I did a search in my area of solds, and available listings, and was surprised that some people have bought pretty well in today's hot market.

As Roberto says you can buy for less than rent, so why are these rentals going to be paying for themselves?

Renters will pay debt, look for cheaper rents, take some time, buy well, and the rental market will be floated by corporate investors.

Real Estate is a job, it's a long term hold unless you turn properties. As we get closer to equilibrium in pricing, which will be up to the Fed, we'll lose appreciation. There is no other rationale. There is no economic reason for the price of Real Estate to continue to go up.

robertoaribas says

the majority of eocnomists give Bernanke pretty high marks for his handling of what could have been the 2nd great depression.

It takes a real kensian economics professor to make such a statement, which basically means that that:

1. Govt can create wealth.
2. Govt can make something out of nothing.

Both of these points were refuted over and over again, in history, but, I guess, some of us, will never learn.

David Losh says

Why would anyone hold onto property in this economic climate? It makes no sense. Even in your dream world of rental profits, I see much more money in maintaining properties than owning them.

If you bought property with the plan to rent them for profit and you are spending more on maintenance than you are profiting, then you are doing something wrong (or you got unlucky).

Maybe Seattle isn't a good place to buy-to-rent, or maybe your timing was unfortunate. There are many, many people out there in the world who have done quite well buying properties and renting them out. Sometimes it's a no-brainer to make it work (look at the price to rent ratio in Phoenix when Roberto bought), and sometimes it's marginal and takes some other factor to make it work: circumstances that make the tax benefits particularly valuable, skills or related occupation that gives you an edge, or some other flexibility or complementary benefit. Economies of scale apply, too (if you maintain them yourself, and can amortize your tool purchase across 5 properties instead of 1, for example).

I watched my parents acquire 4 buildings over a decade. Their approach was to select a property that was in poor condition, and under market rents, but would cover the payment, hopefully with a little bit of headroom. As tenants moved on (as they always do) they would go in and upgrade the unit - often a full gut job. They were small business owners in a business with strong seasonal patterns -- summers were slow. To keep their employees busy, they would have them paint, sand floors, etc. As the properties gained equity, they also provided an important source of collateral for their business loans.

If they hadn't been willing to hang drywall and lay tile themselves, or if the didn't have the flexibility and idle employees that the business provided, it wouldn't have worked out as well for them. They would have hired all the work done, maybe hired a management company, and in the end they would still own the buildings free and clear, but they would probably have come out behind compared to other investment options.

I had always thought I would repeat what they did, but my situation is so different, and I don't have all of the complementary puzzle pieces to make it work. I have a job that takes a lot of my time, has me traveling frequently, and doesn't provide the flexibility I would need.

It's not for everyone or every situation, and if it isn't working out for you, and you can get out with your skin...do it. But I think you would be wrong to conclude that it's a losing investment strategy...

swebb says

It's not for everyone or every situation, and if it isn't working out for you, and you can get out with your skin...do it. But I think you would be wrong to conclude that it's a losing investment strategy...

You outlined perfectly how Rental Property can be a very good investment, but there was no reason to rush into Real Estate after the economic crash, before you could see where all the prices will fall.

I also have a variety of workers who did work on properties we owned. I sold them before 2007, we still have some partnership positions that I want out of.

The way I see it is that the tax credit encouraged first time home buyers to pay more for properties than I would want to spend. Then we had the lower interest rates and prices started moving up again.

We could have flipped some properties, but in our market place more guys ended up with rentals in 2009, 2010, than they intended. Those are being sold off now in this extreme state of exhuberance.

I like Real Estate. I've been in the Real Estate business my entire career. I'm just saying that we have a very screwed up market place today, with way too many people paying way too much for properties. I can see a quick flip, but not a long term hold.

David Losh says

I like Real Estate. I've been in the Real Estate business my entire career. I'm just saying that we have a very screwed up market place today, with way too many people paying way too much for properties. I can see a quick flip, but not a long term hold.

I think that's going to vary a lot from market to market, and where you think things are headed. I think the flip vs buy and hold question varies not just with the market but also on individual situation -- some people are better equipped / connected / situated to flip, for others the buy and hold strategy is a better fit.

I'm not in the buy-hold-rent situation, but I did buy a place so I could live in it. The analysis isn't exactly the same as a pure financial investment, but it's similar. My net "rent" (less maintenance) is in the $900-$1000/month range. Similar property would cost me $1800/month to rent. For Denver, for my situation, for this particular house...it's a no brainer, and would also make a nice rental...I bought well and the market is improving...whether or not it makes more sense to hold or sell is a tougher call. Both are good. I don't know that I could "step and repeat" even 3 months later -- market is "improving" too quickly. Maybe Denver will look more like Seattle in the coming quarters.

robertoaribas says

If you waited, you will now pay more,

No I won't.

Let me recap this for you again, because you really aren't getting it.

In 2007 prices were obscenely high. After the crash prices came back into focus, until the tax credit, then the interest rates.

The example I gave before about the blocker in Shoreline was that a buyer paid $225K for that bank owned property, I guess based on the fact the bank had lent $430K on the property pre 2007.

$225K looked like a bargain to that buyer, but to me it was full retail.

There is no bottom or top to the Real Estate market. There are only good deals, or liabilities. The very idea some one is using sales data as a barameter should have been dispelled in 2008, but here we are with Real Estate agents pushing the greater fool priniciple.

I won't pay pay more. No buyer needs to pay more, and like I said, looking at my area, some buyers are getting pretty good deals. My area, however, is across the Freeway from the Puget Sound part of the city, where the competition is fierce.

It's all in the deal. My deal is that I'm clearing my leverage, and getting to cash.

David Losh says

I disagree that buying into today's Real Estate market was a great idea, or
any time after the global economic crash.

Depend on your strategy.

First, you do not have to hold. As a matter of fact, you want to turn it over as fast as you can if you see the writing on the wall (not only real estate but also everything else.)

Second, buy properties that are harder to get loan with so the prices are not artificially supported by low interest rate. Wait to sell them when the foreclosure pipeline empties out (e.g., Roberto would make a really nice profit if he sells now. It may get better next year in his local market.)

You will not see this kind of market very often (once in a lifetime kind of thing.)

robertoaribas says

as prices have risen strongly since then

So what? Prices rose strongly in 2006. Two years of price hikes based on low interest rates doesn't mean squat.

robertoaribas says

a very clear bottom, in most cities 1 to 2 years ago.

Baloney. According to Real Estate sales people there may have been a bottom, or top, based on that sales data barometer, but no, there isn't a cleiling, or a floor to getting a good deal in Real Estate. It all depends on the buyer, and seller.

Mobi says

You will not see this kind of market very often (once in a lifetime kind of thing.)

We saw it in 2006, 2007, and we did turn a few properties. This time around the margins for my area are much tighter, and in 2008, 2009 some flippers flopped. Some who wanted a quick buck ended up renting out the property, but will be selling now I expect.

Most of my work has been with distressed properties, and those that were not bank financable. It was good money then, but now we have way too many yahoos who entered the get rich quick schemes that really screwed with the profit potential..

The Professor says

These people, most of who are not "pure slumlords", are the reason that it is possible to pay "half as much to own vs rent same house". They are also the reason that young families can't buy entry level homes, but they can rent them.

What you are writing makes about as much sense as accusing chicken farmers and grocery stores of causing hunger in the world: if only they had not fed the corn to the chicken, and let the corn sit in the field not consumed by distributors, there would be much more corn per capita around the world! It's the classic socialist technocrat idiocy of assuming bureaucrats moving food from field to people's dinner table would cost nothing, whereas in reality that kind of government-run monopoly is far more costly than market competition bringing food to people. Likewise, hasn't the housing bubble and crash in recent years proved again that ownership is not a good idea for everyone? Renting money and being stuck to a big bundle of housing (in time) can be far more costly than renting houses (by the small time increments).

Not everyone wants to buy 30yrs of housing at a time or even 5 years . . . just like you can buy a dozen muffins for $5 or so at Costco, or you can buy 1 muffin for $1 near your office. Do you want to buy a dozen every two weeks and figure out ways how to keep them from going stale for the next 11 days? A house is just a wooden box sitting out in the rain.

Houses should be a place to live, not an investment.

If nobody invests in a house, there wouldn't be new houses, and those existing houses would also deteriorate quickly. Investing in house is just someone bringing more and better housing service to the market. . . just like chicken farmers use corn to raise chicken, producing a product that is worth more to the end consumer, even if to the statistically obsessed morons the chicken farmer actually consumes more "food" by weight than the "food" he produces by weight.

David Losh says

Mobi says

You will not see this kind of market very often (once in a lifetime kind of thing.)

We saw it in 2006, 2007, and we did turn a few properties. This time around the margins for my area are much tighter, and in 2008, 2009 some flippers flopped. Some who wanted a quick buck ended up renting out the property, but will be selling now I expect.

Most of my work has been with distressed properties, and those that were not bank financable. It was good money then, but now we have way too many yahoos who entered the get rich quick schemes that really screwed with the profit potential..

There weren't many distressed properties back in 2006-2007 and that's the difference. But then, you paid a lot (even for distressed properties) and tried to flip, which is risky. Now you can work with distressed properties and do a quick flip. Profit margin is an issue but as long as you don't put mcuh money to fix them up, you are OK. You have to know your local market well so that you do zero fixing and zero renting before flipping them (have to be patient and only viable for small investors.)

robertoaribas says

and 2010, the bottom...

You have no idea what you are talking about.

There are no economic facrtors to support the price hikes we have, except historically low interest rates.

We are in a massively manipulated Real Estate market place.

You are promoting the greater fool concept of sales for the people who will pay way more than a property is worth.

You are looking at select data to promote sales. It's unfair to the the client.

Mobi says

There weren't many distressed properties back in 2006-2007

There were always distressed properties, but in my case we bought from home owners who wanted to sell the crap they had owned for many many years. In one case we bought an unfinished flip. We paid less than we could get on the open market after the house was completed.
'
There is always a deal in Real Estate. The difference now is the margins are less due to increased competition.

The Professor says

Reality says

If nobody invests in a house, there wouldn't be new houses, and those existing houses would also deteriorate quickly.

Invest in building, sure.

Are you saying that an invester takes better care of a house than an owner?

The house became empty precisely because the previous "owner" abandoned it.

The Professor says

Reality says

makes about as much sense as accusing chicken farmers and grocery stores of causing hunger in the world: if only they had not fed the corn to the chicken, and let the corn sit in the field not consumed by distributors, there would be much more corn per capita around the world!

Huh??

How does this equate to rentiers collecting money for doing nothing more than being connected to the source of credit?

With the numerous government subsidized loans around, the first-time home buyers of any credit worthiness is far better connected to cheap sources of credit than any typical investor, who usually have to pay substantively in cash for those houses.

The broken houses, abandoned houses are the corn, something that is theoretically "food" but nobody wants to eat when chicken is on the offer. The investor money is what turns such shacks into livable houses (akin to corn into chicken), along with the on-going services that keep roof over roughly 35% of the population that are either in too mobile stage of their lives to settle down or simply don't have the temperament for maintaining houses.