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I just bought a house and it will cost half as much to own vs rent same house


               
2012 Oct 12, 8:54am   133,376 views  412 comments

by PockyClipsNow   follow (0)  

I hope this is a real world math lesson for some of the 'should I buy now' crowd. Its a tough decision.

Price: 875k
$ Financed: 700k

Loan: 5/1 Interest Only ARM at 2.875 with .25 points (union bank)
Payment: 1677
Prop tax: 912
total: 2588
(im in 28% effective tax bracket so 2588 * .72 = 1863 'after tax write off payment')
Add fire ins of 129 per month and total pmt after tax write off = $1992

This is a custom built, recently remodeled huge estate home on acreage and zoned for horses - would rent for 3800 to 4200 based on craigslist comps.

If I change jobs I can make 1k per month easy in profit when renting it out. Its not a great rental though, but an awsome to live in property.

I sold four homes off in 05/06 and the plan was wait for 50% drop then buy back in. Well prices only came down to 70% of peak fraud prices - close enough with the low intrest rates (which I am betting are permanent, as in the rest of your life. If rates spike in 5 years I will simply pay off the loan, refi, or get a loan mod - no worries here.)

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1   Patrick   @   2012 Oct 12, 8:57am  

Show me on my calculator:

http://patrick.net/calculator.php

2   bubblesitter   @   2012 Oct 12, 9:02am  

Sounds too optimistic.

3   PockyClipsNow   @   2012 Oct 12, 9:03am  

calculator says actual property value is 1.6m
and 'ok to buy'. not sure what intrest rates you put on that link.
one large factor is that I AM NOT MAKING PRINCIPAL PAYMENTS which I believe are for chumps. That would add 1k a month to the payment and its not a tax write off. also zero HOA on this house (hoa is not a write off)

Also I believe getting a 30 year fixed at a higher rate (it would be liek 3.6% for me) is for chumps.

IO ARMS are the way to go since if rates rise or the payment adjusts up you can always get a loan mod - they are doing 2% intrest only loans with 100k principal reductions by the million right now. That is not likely to change. If I were more daring I would quit my job, get a low paying job, get a loan mod, then get a better paying job but that is too much ifs lined up for me.

4   PockyClipsNow   @   2012 Oct 12, 9:05am  

bubblesitter says

Sounds too optimistic.

what is optimistic? I locked the loan in already.
the rent might be optimistic. who is paying 4k in rent? i guess people who own horses or want a 5 bedroom custom home with the big tits kitchen remodel.

5   pazuzu   @   2012 Oct 12, 9:08am  

"I AM NOT MAKING PRINCIPAL PAYMENTS.... IO ARMS are the way to go"

Zombie needs to eat more brains.

That does make them smarter right?

No? Oh well.

6   PockyClipsNow   @   2012 Oct 12, 9:14am  

Principal payments in a loan are stupid for two reasons:

1. If prices tank and you walk away you lose DP+all principal payments made
2. Most people just get a heloc anyway after a number of years to buy a dumb car or send kids to school.
3. the principal payment will blow up your debt to income ratio which limits your acquistion of other loans/mortgages. (we are year one of the next up cycle of real estate, time to buy quality properties located well at a good price - if you can find them, not easy)
4.If you think you can pay off a gigantic 500k+ loan rotsa ruck buddy, i am relying on future price appreciation then selling to make money.

7   bubblesitter   @   2012 Oct 12, 9:15am  

PockyClipsNow says

the rent might be optimistic.

Yes. That's what I mean...come on 4K continuous flow? I doubt it...

8   Patrick   @   2012 Oct 12, 9:19am  

I also seriously doubt the $4K rent for an $875K place. Even around here you'd pay only $3K for that place.

Even at $4K it doesn't work though, unless you put in unrealistic appreciation assumptions, as bubble buyers are wont to do:

http://patrick.net/calculator.php?uaddr=%2C+&rent=4000&price=875000

9   Eman   @   2012 Oct 12, 9:21am  

Congrats Pocky. Sounds like a beautiful house. I'm jealous. :)

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