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Why Don't More People Strategically Default?


               
2012 Oct 29, 1:40am   8,778 views  32 comments

by ChrisKolmar   follow (0)  

Why isn't everyone underwater on their mortgage strategically defaulting?

1. It takes the average foreclosure 600 days to complete. Rounding, lets call it 2 years. (Source: http://allfinancialmatters.com/2011/12/02/the-average-foreclosure-length-631-days/)

2. By definition of being underwater, the owners have no equity left.

3. Median price of a home in '07 was $247,900 (Source: http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf).

4. Assume they had a prime loan, for some reason, @ 5% (Source: http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/graph/default.aspx?cat=2&ids=1,-1&state=zz&d=1825&t=MSLine&eco=-1) with 20% down ($49,580).

5. Their monthly mortgage payment is ~$1,0000.

6. After the 2 years, they would have accumulated $24,000 in cash savings. Not to mention not paying for insurance & maintenance. (I assume you have to pay taxes still or face prison time?)

Why the heck wouldn't you default and squat? Am I missing something?

#housing

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21   BayArea   @   2012 Oct 29, 9:19am  

Few things...

- I am underwater on my primary residence property, but not enough for it to make business sense to walk away. There's a threshold obviously.

- Because I am acquiring more property, the savings of foreclosing and squatting for two years doesn't measure up to the potential gains of acquiring investment property. And a foreclosure black-eye could make things quite difficult for me to proceed.

- I am amused by the "moral obligation" mumbo-jumbo. Both parties went into a contractual agreement. One party lent money while the other party took on an asset. If, for whatever reason the party with the asset stops making payments, they give back the asset. And the bank is/was very well aware that if the financial system/economy collapsed, people would be exersizing that part of the agreement. And don't forget that the asset gets returned in full even though the owner paid for that asset for years! Oh how well positioned is that bank compared to the rest of us eh?

- The bank will ALWAYS exersize every possible legal avenue to extract the most money out of any particular contractual agreement. Sometimes the little guy will be smart enough to do the same. I applaud all of you who have improved your lives by moving on from your debts legally. And at the same time to be fair, I am disgusted in our system for continually offering the "outs"

curious2 says

The larger question is, why is America as a society encouraging default and punishing savings, encouraging grasshopper behavior while punishing ant behavior. FIRE lobbying and bailouts are pushing us all towards collective default, and a profound shift in national character.

Spot on sir.

22   David Losh   @   2012 Oct 29, 10:53am  

Number one the bank writes the contract to suit them. The bank does the appraisal, and has all the data on larger economic forces that come to bear on the Real Estate Industry. The bank lends money on the value of the asset.

There may be a promise to pay, but the promise to pay is secondary to the whole foreclosure market.

Ask why the foreclosure market is overwhelmed.

Banks didn't care how much they lent, they were selling the Notes as fast as they were churning them out. Those Notes were sold to a secondary market without any regard for the value. Those loans were insured against loss, and resold as investment quality based on a rating system.

How could the entire financial market have missed the mark on the value of the assets.

Now ask yourself, if they didn't know how could you be expected to know. If they lied, or ignored, they should be the ones taking the loss, not you.

Either way, walking makes the most sense if the numbers make sense to you.

The bank is the enemy, give them nothing.

23   taxee   @   2012 Oct 29, 11:26pm  

curious2 says

why is America as a society encouraging default and punishing savings, encouraging grasshopper behavior while punishing ant behavior. FIRE lobbying and bailouts are pushing us all towards collective default, and a profound shift in national character.

Could it be because the worst actors among us saw an opportunity? Instead of dealing with reality and investing in creating a workable, livable future they chose to: 1)Collude with a totalitarian government to avoid environmental laws, labor laws, accountability and US domestic competition and resurrect slave labor (Nixon in China). 2) Creat a totally fiat world currency run by crony banksters and their political puppets (Nixon again) 3) Expand irresponsible government spending agreed to in exchange for lowering of the top tax brackets which encouraged quasi criminal short term thinking and behavior aimed at accumulating vast personal fortunes that encouraged even more corruption of the poltical process. 4) Turn the natural desire and historical basis for middle class US property ownership into a tool to exploit the average citizen and resurrect the rentier class. By any objective measure we have arrived at a very f'd up destination.

24   After Foreclosure   @   2012 Oct 30, 12:06am  

Guys, this article is from almost a year ago. Dec 2011. Things are different now.

25   ChrisKolmar   @   2012 Oct 30, 1:26am  

jon says

Guys, this article is from almost a year ago. Dec 2011. Things are different now.

For some reason the title of my thread changed and it got turned into a link submission. The focus here isn't at all on the article. Going to fix it now.

26   Eman   @   2012 Oct 30, 1:42am  

IDDQD says

E-man says

And lastly to echo what theoakman said above, some people have self respect & live up to their obligations. :)

Funny to hear it from the dude who openly stated that his investment plan includes walking away from his obligations if price of his investments plunge:

E-man says

If shit hit the fan, we walk away. Yes, we ruin our credit. We lose other people's money (the lenders), but we still have our cash and our knowledge. The beauty when shit hit the fan is that "cash is king." Then we take the cash and go for the next round. That's my investment model. :)

Thank you for proving my point about being short-sighted. Investors and I are buying properties in the Bay Area for 35-40 cents on the dollar. These properties are now worth 50%-60% of the peak value. In some parts of the country, you can buy them for 20-25 cents on the dollar. You bears are calling for another 65% drop from here.

If the bears' prediction comes to fruition, do you think you still have a job by then, or will the soup line be the norm? Ask your spouse if your first obligation is to put food on the table for your kids or pay mortgage to the banksters if SHTF? I hope your spouse dumps your sorry ass if your answer is the latter.

I know a couple of persons that are in a bind right now, but refuse to let the property go because they said "we know what we signed." You just have to respect that.

27   Eman   @   2012 Oct 30, 1:45am  

Nobody says

Clinging onto the hope of unrealistic price gain.

As unrealistic as their hope, it has come to fruition this year for some homeowners. Have you seen the double digit gains in some parts of the Bay Area? :)

28   BayArea   @   2012 Oct 30, 5:20am  

E-man says

Nobody says

Clinging onto the hope of unrealistic price gain.

As unrealistic as their hope, it has come to fruition this year for some homeowners. Have you seen the double digit gains in some parts of the Bay Area? :)

I have. And as a homeowner and an active investor, I don't know whether to celebrate or cry.

29   Sakman   @   2012 Oct 30, 5:26am  

People don't strategically default for the same reason that they vote for a democrat or a republican.

Path of least resistance, lack of knowledge, unwillingness to change. Actual answers from my under water friends and coworkers.

30   Tenpoundbass   @   2012 Oct 30, 6:02am  

Sakman says

People don't strategically default for the same reason that they vote for a democrat or a republican.

Path of least resistance, lack of knowledge, unwillingness to change. Actual answers from my under water friends and coworkers.

In times of crisis, people generally don't judge others with as much scrutiny as they would in good times. How ever when the worm turns, and better times are ahead, and people can breath again. That's when they start to think about the stuff they saw along the way. It's then they want to hold people for what they did back then.

Those people that didn't strategically default, will hold them selves morally above those that did. It's no different than a college kid that will hoot an holler and cheer some college girl on as she strips at a patio bar wet T-Shirt contest.
How ever 10-15 years down the road, that girl wont stand a chance getting a job, when she shows up at that same persons office for a job interview.

"Hey I know you! Did you ever enter a wet t-shirt contest at the Elbow room on Las Olas back in '89?"

31   rufita11   @   2012 Oct 30, 6:06am  

My parent's long time neighbor, got over 500K as a second on her house during the height of the bubble. She told my dad that she got her money, so the bank can have the house whenever they want it. She's been living rent free for over a year now. I double checked this on Zillow--she wasn't lying.

32   BayArea   @   2012 Oct 30, 7:04am  

CaptainShuddup says

How ever 10-15 years down the road, that girl wont stand a chance getting a job, when she shows up at that same persons office for a job interview.

I would expect that she would be the #1 candidate for the job, ahead of you and I.

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