0
0

You Didn't Account for External Demand


               
2012 Nov 1, 11:13am   6,652 views  23 comments

by ChrisKolmar   follow (0)  

You guys look a lot at the median income, or median rent, of a locality as the basis for your evaluation, but that won't account for external demand.

Take SF for example. Prices are 11x income, which is stupid. BUT it COULD be justified if there is demand from outside of the valley.

Let's say every rich person in NY, Shanghai, Hong Kong, London, Geneva, and every other crazy rich person in the world wants a home in SF. Then prices might be right as the global demand is much higher than the limited supply of SF housing.

Note this theory only works in Global cities (NY, SF, Miami, LA) and not land locked places with less global appeal (San Antonio or Phoenix).

Thoughts?

#housing

Comments 1 - 11 of 23       Last »     Search these comments

1   bmwman91   @   2012 Nov 1, 11:19am  

Yup, our government is even encouraging foreigners to price-out natives. Spend $500k on real estate, get a resident visa. Americans are trapped-out financially and we'll sell our nation well before we address any of the reasons why our economy is broken. Capitalism!

2   bmwman91   @   2012 Nov 1, 1:32pm  

IDDQD says

bmwman91 says

Spend $500k on real estate, get a resident visa.

Did this thing really passed in Congress? I remember hearing that some clown (Chuck Schumer?) proposed such legislation but I'm not sure it really became the law.

I believe so.

And your user name is pure win.

3   Eman   @   2012 Nov 1, 3:27pm  

Chris,

What's the percentage of foreigners buying real estate in San Francisco do you know?

4   bmwman91   @   2012 Nov 1, 4:42pm  

Over the last few months, I have been seeing a surge in the number of people speaking Mandarin in public, and they dress the part of monied foreigners. They seem to range in age from early 30's to mid-40's. So, they aren't folks that moved here decades ago. China has a lot of money from the west, and the people holding it want to put it somewhere. If they have been convinced that the SFBA is one more item on the list of "things to do for social status" then it is game over for people living here. The cultural mentality over there has basically bred the perfect consumer-Borg that believes that respect is bought through brand-name conformity. If the SFBA is one of those brand names, well, folks here will find out just how much money has made its way over there (and back!).

It's not a knock against the Chinese, it's just a statement of fact. Europeans came to America and used the idea of property ownership as an excuse to commit genocide. There are countless other examples throughout history where peoples have been pushed out of their homeland by foreigners. This might just be the next chapter in that book. We may well have sown our own undoing by pushing "American culture" all over the world. We got a hive-mind culture to buy into our ideas of insatiable consumerism, handed them trillions of dollars, and now they are setting out to take their piece of the bullshit-pie that we convinced them to seek. Ironic, no?

5   Eman   @   2012 Nov 1, 5:20pm  

BMW,

It's ironic that we have enjoyed a very high standard of living for a long time, and some of us don't know it or don't appreciate it. The foreigners come here & see everything is cheap compared to where they came from.

In the late 90's foreigners bought into the fortress and drove up home prices. They bought shacks on an oversize lot in Atherton and Menlo Park for over $1M. They tore those shacks down & put a McMansion on it. To them, $1M-$1.8M was a bargain while Americans complained it was too expensive and over-priced. LOL!

Now I see Chinese going into Cupertino & paying $800k -$1.2M for a shack, and they think it's a bargain.

I bust my behind to make sure that my kids will have a decent place to live in the Bay Area instead of being renters for life. We typically don't value what we have until we lose it.

6   bmwman91   @   2012 Nov 1, 5:35pm  

E-man says

We typically don't value what we have until we lose it.

Yup.

I'd take renting in the SFBA over living in China any day though (been there enough times to say that for certain). Lots of people there feel the same way, and have the cash to do something about it. Trips to industrial China really do a lot to show how good things are here. Buuuuut, it's more fun to complain!

But seriously, when the time comes for kids of my own, I'll be getting the hell out of the SFBA.

7   HEY YOU   @   2012 Nov 1, 6:32pm  

Native Americans wish we would all leave. We overdeveloped some nice property.

8   lisalisa   @   2012 Nov 1, 11:27pm  

HEY YOU says

Native Americans wish we would all leave. We overdeveloped some nice property.

F'd a lot of it up...and the Native Americans want to just live off the land and only take what they need.

We are some bunch of EMEA's

9   Eman   @   2012 Nov 2, 1:09am  

bmwman91 says

But seriously, when the time comes for kids of my own, I'll be getting the hell out of the SFBA.

People move here for jobs. Real estate has always been expensive where the jobs are. In general, it's easier to move out, but harder to move back. The inflation might be 2% in other local area while it's closer to 5% in the Bay Area.

It's unfortunate for some people that moved here in the late 90's and early 2000's. They worked hard, saved money, bought at the peak, and lost everything. You have had your chance to buy real estate at a discount in the last several years. I guess the discount wasn't close enough for you to jump in. Just remember that if you missed a RE cycle, you'd have to wait 7-10 years. Maybe you'd be ready by the next cycle. :)

10   ChrisKolmar   @   2012 Nov 2, 1:10am  

E-man says

What's the percentage of foreigners buying real estate in San Francisco do you know?

Just pitchin a theory. Here's some data to back it up:
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/morning_call/2012/09/foreign-buyers-shopping-for-bay-area.html

11   Eman   @   2012 Nov 2, 1:18am  

ChrisKolmar says

E-man says

What's the percentage of foreigners buying real estate in San Francisco do you know?

Just pitchin a theory. Here's some data to back it up:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/morning_call/2012/09/foreign-buyers-shopping-for-bay-area.html

Chris,

Foreigners spent $82.5B in the last 12 months. That's an increase from $66.4B. I guess by knowing the total real estate sale dollar amount in the last 12 months, we can figure out the percentage of the foreigner's purchase.

Comments 1 - 11 of 23       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   users   suggestions   gaiste