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Nate Silver is awesome


               
2012 Nov 2, 4:36am   5,410 views  19 comments

by CL   follow (1)  

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2012/10/31/mitt-romneys-electoral-problem-and-the-war-on-nate-silver

"But let's be clear on something: Conservatives might dislike and disagree with the numbers Silver is pushing, he is not alone in pushing them. There are in fact several Web sites and/or scholars who push statistical models aimed at making similar estimates about who will be the next president, and they all give an edge to President Obama. The Princeton Election Consortium, run by Professor Sam Wang, projects Obama pulling in 303 electoral votes, for example; Votamatic, which is run by Drew Linzer, a professor at Emory and Stanford, predicts 332 electoral votes for Obama; Real Clear Politics's "No Toss Up States" map gives Obama 281 electoral votes. (Huffington Post's Pollster.com gives Obama a base of 253 electoral votes and leads in five of toss-up states as compared with 206 electoral votes and a single toss-up state lead for Romney.) And the major online betting markets all give Obama pretty good odds of re-election (Intrade puts it at 63.3 percent chance, and Betfair says 68 percent)."

Romney campaign ad, then perhaps a Crossroads GPS ad. ("Liberal stat nerd Nate Silver says Pennsylvania is 94.2 percent likely to vote for President Barack Obama's foreign agenda—show Silver he's wrong by voting for Mitt Romney.

#politics

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1   rooemoore   @   2012 Nov 2, 4:41am  

War on Nate Silver is a war on facts. If the situation is reversed Silver would be honest. The dude is a statistics junkie and is only interest is being accurate. If he got the election wrong, how do you think that would effect his new book sales?

2   edvard2   @   2012 Nov 2, 4:42am  

Yep. I followed Nate's stats all during the last election and he was remarkably accurate. So much so that I don't bother reading any other poll. Unless something drastic happens in the next 3 days I suspect Obama has won the election.

3   bdrasin   @   2012 Nov 2, 4:50am  

Slightly off-topic, but I liked 538 more in 2008. Silver & co did a whole series of on-the-ground reports from McCain and Obama's field offices around the country; the number of staffers at each office, the differences in approach, etc. That was very interesting and just as informative as the day-to-day number crunching. I'm not sure why they didn't repeat that this time around because I would really be interested in what they would have found.

4   rooemoore   @   2012 Nov 2, 4:55am  

For our right leaning friends who can't handle visiting Nate's blog, here is the latest:

There is some hopeful news as Nate has Romney's chances improving by Tuesday.

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