patrick.net

War on Nate Silver is a war on facts. If the situation is reversed Silver would be honest. The dude is a statistics junkie and is only interest is being accurate. If he got the election wrong, how do you think that would effect his new book sales?

Yep. I followed Nate's stats all during the last election and he was remarkably accurate. So much so that I don't bother reading any other poll. Unless something drastic happens in the next 3 days I suspect Obama has won the election.

Slightly off-topic, but I liked 538 more in 2008. Silver & co did a whole series of on-the-ground reports from McCain and Obama's field offices around the country; the number of staffers at each office, the differences in approach, etc. That was very interesting and just as informative as the day-to-day number crunching. I'm not sure why they didn't repeat that this time around because I would really be interested in what they would have found.

For our right leaning friends who can't handle visiting Nate's blog, here is the latest:

There is some hopeful news as Nate has Romney's chances improving by Tuesday.

bdrasin says

Slightly off-topic, but I liked 538 more in 2008. Silver & co did a whole series of on-the-ground reports from McCain and Obama's field offices around the country; the number of staffers at each office, the differences in approach, etc. That was very interesting and just as informative as the day-to-day number crunching. I'm not sure why they didn't repeat that this time around because I would really be interested in what they would have found.

I sort of liked that better as well. That said ( its been a long time) but to me it seems like the amount of raw data, stats, and scenarios for the 2012 version of the site seems far more extensive than in 2008. I imagine it takes a huge amount of time having to compute all of those numbers and outcomes.

Nate Silver addresses pundits who say he is biased and wrong:

Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

But the state polls may not be right. They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16 percent.

Romney's slipping further.

Most of the criticism I heard about Nate Silver is that he's a skinny guy, so he's probably effeminate, and therefore he hates real manly Romney. Although I suspect that Romney is the type of "manly man" who asks his butler to cut off the crust of his sandwich, even though he's a mature adult.

Typically over-the-top ultraconservative emotion-laden arguments. Ironically, they accuse liberals of being driven by emotion.

thunderlips11 says

Most of the criticism I heard about Nate Silver is that he's a skinny guy, so he's probably effeminate, and therefore he hates real manly Romney.

It is my understanding that Nate Silver happens to be gay, which makes him an easy target for this abuse. But he isn't saying anything different than other poll watchers.

bdrasin says

It is my understanding that Nate Silver happens to be gay, which makes him an easy target for this abuse.

I think you'd find a sudden end to rightwing homophobic attacks on Silver if his respected analysis portended a Romney victory. :)