patrick.net

You guys crack me up.
What part of 49% - 49% do you NOT get?

This isn't 2008

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

On the night before America votes, 59% of likely U.S. voters expect Barack Obama to be elected president.

It wasn't a secret Obama was going to win by late October, it was unpopular to say you were voting republican in 2008. You would have killed your social life, and you could have lost your job(I'm not kidding).

11/04/2008 46% 52% Obama +6
11/03/2008 46% 52% Obama +6
11/02/2008 46% 51% Obama +5
11/01/2008 46% 51% Obama +5
10/31/2008 47% 51% Obama +4
10/30/2008 46% 51% Obama +5
10/29/2008 47% 50% Obama +3
10/28/2008 46% 51% Obama +5
10/27/2008 46% 51% Obama +5
10/26/2008 44% 52% Obama +8
10/25/2008 44% 52% Obama +8
10/24/2008 45% 52% Obama +7
10/23/2008 45% 52% Obama +7
10/22/2008 45% 51% Obama +6
10/21/2008 46% 50% Obama +4
10/20/2008 46% 50% Obama +4

CaptainShuddup says

You guys crack me up.
What part of 49% - 49% do you NOT get?

What part of "Electoral College" don't you understand?

CO, VA, and NH are close enough that a different result wouldn't really be a surprise. FL would be a bit more of an upset (and would by itself utterly doom Romney). After that there would have to be a pretty serious bias for things to work out differently.

Overall I'd say 300 EV is pretty close to an even bet - unlike the actual winner, which is not as I've noted elsewhere.

What part don't you understand? Romney needs to win the national popular vote by about one percentage point to avert a tossup, or a loss, in the Electoral College.

The win by Obama is a sure thing. A question is whether he can get 300.

bdrasin says

CO, VA, and NH are close enough that a different result wouldn't really be a surprise. FL would be a bit more of an upset (and would by itself utterly doom Romney). After that there would have to be a pretty serious bias for things to work out differently.

Overall I'd say 300 EV is pretty close to an even bet - unlike the actual winner, which is not as I've noted elsewhere.

Here it is, with Obama losing FLA, VA AND Ohio, but winning the Western States (which I think he will carry those again).

Here is the closest map you will see.

LarryPatrickMaloney says

Here is the closest map you will see.

You sure Obama is going to carry D.C.? He's only up 87-8 there, which is most likely due to that incorrect voter turnout model thinger I heard about on FOX...

LarryPatrickMaloney says

Here is the closest map you will see.

Closest to.....imaginary?

I was scared to pick Florida and Virginia, but I think we can say Obama trounced Mittens with 332 to 206.

Who cares about Florida?

I am merely having fun looking at them trying to screw a light bulb.