patrick.net

Another reason the 2010s are not the 1970s is that the baby boom was aged 11 to 29 in 1975 and in 2015 they will be aged 51 to 69.

Can you spot the difference?

Now, in some ways the baby boom edging off into retirement will be VERY stimulative to the economy. TONS of jobs being opened up by their retirement, and also TONS of jobs being created by their new demand -- in health and other services they will command.

This will throw a lot of velocity into the economy and might make things better than I expect. We'll probably just keep raising the debt ceiling trillions at a time and borrowing to pay for all of this, with the Fed doing their part with their $40-$50B/mo monetary expansion, and that's how inflation will keep going.

War says

Worse yet, adjusted per capita wages are at 30 year lows.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=cZV

is real (2012) per-capita wages.

Now, this is deceptive due to the increasing L-curve of wages being shifted to the upper decile and percentile I guess.

There are literally thousands of ways that the 2010s aren't the 1970s. So much so that it's extraordinarily difficult to draw conclusions based on what happened in the 70s.

As it turns out, there really aren't any patterns in economics. Each period is different, for different reasons. New technologies, wars, cultural shifts, politics, demographics, disease, and so many other factors contribute to the result.

Anyone claiming certainty about what will happen over the next 10 years is probably trying to sell you a book. Even if they're right about the direction, they're most likely way off about the magnitude. The number of people who have accurately predicted a major economic trend more than once is incredibly small...possibly zero. Many blowhards claim that they have, and yet they've never profited from such accurate powers of prediction for some reason.

Bellingham Bill says

Now, in some ways the baby boom edging off into retirement will be VERY stimulative to the economy. TONS of jobs being opened up by their retirement,

The average baby boomer without a company plan has 32k in retirement savings, with a company plan 88k. That is a whole 6k a year for average lifespan. With that kind of nest egg when do you suppose they will be retiring and opening up all these jobs?

Kevin says

here really aren't any patterns in economics. Each period is different, for different reasons. New technologies, wars, cultural shifts, politics, demographics, disease, and so many other factors contribute to the result.

No kidding. I just read in this morning's WSJ, 2nd consecutive year of Japanese trade deficit. Mainly because of an offshore earthquake causing a tsunami, and political discord with China.

Put that on your quant extrapolations.

bob2356 says

Bellingham Bill says

Now, in some ways the baby boom edging off into retirement will be VERY stimulative to the economy. TONS of jobs being opened up by their retirement,

The average baby boomer without a company plan has 32k in retirement savings, with a company plan 88k. That is a whole 6k a year for average lifespan. With that kind of nest egg when do you suppose they will be retiring and opening up all these jobs?

When they turn 65 and can get social security and medicare.

It won't have any real impact on the jobs market though.

Gold:
It's in a standard consolidation that's happened at least 3 times since 2001. It's just now entering the timing band to break out again.

K-cycle:
Yes I thought they were the length of a human life. I don't where people got the 70s from.

Points 1-7:
Everyone will think all those things are going to happen, causing the dollar to tank and gold to explode for a couple years. In the end only the minor ones will happen this time... Several year consolidation, solidify another level lower living standards level for all. Then come some more off the list, and then worse than the list. Rinse, Repeat for a decade or two.