patrick.net

CDon says

The answer to me seems obvious - meaning the forecast is years of stagnation to (at best) a market that rises lower than the rate of inflation while the remaining excesses are worked off.

Like the saying goes, "the market abhors a vacuum." No one makes money in stagnation. It won't be tolerated for long. If the efforts to create a bubble fail you will see a push to create a crash.

The Government is going to run out of the juice it will take to create a bubble. And really what it will take is going back to no-doc loans and the lifting of buyback clauses, and I don't see that happening soon.

ELC says

BTW, great post.

Thank you. while im not above the occasional snark, I do appreciate discouse too.

ELC says

I think they will follow herd mentality as usual and at a certain point all give up.

OK, but arent they, by definition all following the herd now? Right now, the herd is (1) sitting tight toughing it out and (2) capitulating so slowly and so infrequently as to cause the dearth of inventory and bottom we see now.

It sounds like you are assuming the herd (which has been following the path above for the past 3-4 years) will suddenly capitulate en masse. Outside of a black swan event (which IMO if you worry about this everpresent fact of life is a reason to never buy) is there anything specific you see happening that will change the situation?

ELC says

Like the saying goes, "the market abhors a vacuum." No one makes money in stagnation. It won't be tolerated for long. If the efforts to create a bubble fail you will see a push to create a crash.

Abhorent or not, they do exist. Witness for example the early 90s real estate bust. From 1992-1998 the stagnation continued, pretty much unabated before prices took off again. No money was made (or lost) during that time. As an aside - if you go gack to the early days of the internet chatrooms, you see some interesting paralels where people are fairly convinced the 92-98 stagnation was just a prelude to a much bigger catastrophic drop in home prices.

ELC says

The Government is going to run out of the juice it will take to create a bubble. And really what it will take is going back to no-doc loans and the lifting of buyback clauses, and I don't see that happening soon.

Here we disagree, not only in intent but in scope. TPTB intent is not to create another "bubble", but instead a "floor". Thats why I believe all those who are calling for a real "recovery" will be disappointed as we continue to stagnate and work off the excesses.

As to scope, frankly, I dont think you have any real idea how far they are willing to go to keep a floor in place. Remember, back in 08, a real honest to goodness liquidity trap was setting up - CPI actually fell, Ted spread was off the charts, we broke the buck for godsakes.

All that talk of "we were 6 hours away from TEOTWAKI in the form of electronic bank runs" was not all hyperbole. Among many of the wonks, that really was how close we were.

So, rightly or wrongly, you have to keep in mind thats what is driving their thinking and the scope of how much juice they have to keep the floor in place. The thinking among TPTB is that a true honest to goodness liquidity trap is so dangerous that it simply cannot be allowed to happen. Revolutions are borne on the shoulders of such events.

Thus, before they have to roll out the tanks to defend the status quo, ask yourself what they will do to prevent this possibility.

Interest rate changes
Changes in Discount rates
ZIRP
QE
TARP
QE2
Operation Twist
QE3 (we are here)
QE to infinity
Nationalization of industries or sectors of the economy.
Debt Jubilees
Selective Defaults
Printing of checks to every man woman and child in the US (remember, the moniker "helecopter ben" isnt mere hyperbole - read his position paper on how far he would go to prevent deflation).
The Sale of govt controlled assets.
Privatization of licenses.
The sale of Alaska.

Again, not saying I agree with their viewpoint. I do however understand what they (at least think) they are up against. So long as thats the case, I really dont see why they will suddenly "rip the band aid off" given the alternative is so much more potentially devestating than the status quo.

robertoaribas says

cdon just wrote a very cogent explanation of the market... and immediately gets a dislike...
see, that is what starts to set some people (like me) off on this site. His response was frankly one out of a hundred in terms of quality on this blog; If you don't like his premises or conclusions, explain how you see the world differently...

Ive always found that strange too. Construct a decent argument and (other than ELC who had a thoughtful one) get nary a peep in response other than a bunch of dislikes.

If there was a agree/disagree button, that would make a bit more sense - almost like "I disagree with what you are saying, but I dont have the time or energy to pen a response". And maybe in fact that is what people are trying to say.

Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger. So my guess is more often then not the dislike is either:

"I dont like what you are saying. I think you are wrong, but I dont have the ability to debate you on the merits, so let me stick out my tounge and run away"

or

"I actually think you could be right - but I dont want to admit that, and I dont like that you are telling me something I dont want to hear...so let me stick out my tounge and run away"

Either way, its rather disappointing. Incidentally, I won der how many dislikes this post about the nature of dislikes will get?

CDon says

Still, the more time I spend here, the more I see a common theme emerging. Many of the posts here are made with a surprising amount of emotion and more often than not that emotion is fear and or anger.

I find it that way on all forums where it's free to join and you can post anonymously with little moderator interference. Emotions are purposely exagerated to elicit a response. That's why when you compose a serious down to earth post you seem to be ignored. It's the way Internet discussions have always been. I assure you very few are actually angry. In fact they're probably watching TV and talking with their spouse at the same time they're typing. Others have a whiskey in one hand and are typing with the other. Don't take it to heart.

I *only* use message boards while drinking

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

MsBennet says

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

He just needs to put the douchebears on ignore. I did, and Pnet sure seems a lot cleaner to me!

Roberto, I agree with bmwman. Use the ignore button. I think your post are pretty informative from the landlord perspective, but getting into flame wars where you're calling people "morons, little girls, etc" and talking about buying exotic private islands kind of makes you a catch 22 sometimes.

Man, I was in the Philippines a while back when I used to work for Goldman sachs. All I remember is that metro Manilla was brutal. The heat, the smog, the traffic. I'm guessing whereever you're moving isn't near there.

Billybigrig says

you may have received one dislike but did anyone once use a condenseding retort

Only mildly. But still, fair point.

Billybigrig says

the only thing this guy is doing is trying to say a few hail Mary's and thinks everthing will be all warm and fuzzy again...
In my neck of the woods we call it backpeddling...

Not sure I understand. What "guy"?

ELC says

Emotions are purposely exagerated to elicit a response. That's why when you compose a serious down to earth post you seem to be ignored. It's the way Internet discussions have always been. I assure you very few are actually angry.

Probably true as im relatively new to blogging. Still seems like a waste of time to mostly log in to hurl insults, but obviously, im in the minority.

robertoaribas says

and talking about buying exotic private islands kind of makes you a catch 22 sometimes.
It was liarwhaterver that started that "buying exotic private islands..."
I intend to RETIRE to an exotic non private island... why the hell would I want a private island? where would I go out to eat? do yoga? hang out in coffee shops playing on the internet? find friends to kayak and mountain bike with?

Completely OT, but I happen to know a guy who bought a private island...Big Mistake.

Theyre actually kinda cheap so the guy (who had IBM ground floor money) bought it on a lark. The reason they are so cheap however is they are undeveloped - and development costs a FORTUNE. Had to build a mini wastewater treatment facility to get enough drinking water. For the pouring of the slab, it was actually cheaper to build a facility & manufacture the concrete on site, than it was to ship in fully loaded cement trucks from the nearest islands. Insurance was sky high as risks like "piracy" were built into the policy. He had to contract with the Govt to ensure they would defend his island if it were invaded. Overall it was a nightmare.

MsBennet says

By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

somethings are best said in italian: ce l’ ha piccolo!

robertoaribas says

pazuzu says

"Roberto is in it too deep to have an open mind. If he had an open mind he wouldn't be able to sleep at night."

That's what the bottle is for.

yes, with 13 homes and 5 mortgages, I feel really nervous. I mean, I only take in $13,000 a month in rent, and I have to pay $7000 in bills including the home I live in... Hell, if things turned really bad, i'd actually have to use some of my salary for living expenses. Oh the horror!

Quick, look over here! Look at how great I am! Roberto, if you only knew the kind of lot that many readers on here are carrying. Your Phoenix empire would barely carry the monthly cost for a regular 2bd condo in many metro areas. Give it a rest. Go help your students skip a grade. That would be more honorable than calling people names over and over on this site.

bmwman91 says

MsBennet says

Roberto, I was really admiring you for being ahead of the curve and daring to buy a bunch of homes and rent them out. But your need for adoration is quite puzzling. By continually bragging, it makes me wonder if you are telling the truth at all or if you have some deep-seeded need to cover up past rejections. Perhaps from your childhood. You had my respect but now I'm little sad for you.

He just needs to put the douchebears on ignore. I did, and Pnet sure seems a lot cleaner to me!

touche

robertoaribas says

I teach college not grade school

Jr College :)

When did this become a censored forum?

I did none of those things. I had a dispute with one other user.

You are the one responding and saying censorship is ok with you.

I am betting you would change your toon if you got deleted.

Funny a liberal fighting for censorship.

Free Speech 1
Duckface 0

yup1 says

Sounds a little like church.

Or the tea party

robertoaribas says

I do not mark insulting names or words at me as spam, because i don't care about insults. I do mark calling me a liar as spam, because unless someone cares to back it up with facts, in any other non anonymous forum that would be considered libel, and thus I don't think it should be tolerated here.

If you don't consider your linked blog having posts by you saying

Evidence piling up that the Phoenix Arizona Housing Market is in big trouble.
Posted on September 16, 2010

Why am I still bearish, when there has been good news on some housing fronts?
Posted on October 16, 2010 by robertoaribas

and here is you Oct 31 2012 post
You gave Phoenix as an example. I have 3 condos under contract today, that are selling at 80%+ off of peak prices. They are not even in the worst areas, though certainly not luxury. 30K for a 3/2 2 car garage 1450 square feet, near metro rail and freeways... rents for $800. This isn't 2000 pricing, this isn't 1990 pricing, this is NEVER pricing, they sold new for 60's in 1982.

Told your blog followers you are a bear on Oct 16, 2010.
Told this forum you are in contract to buy Oct 31, 2010.

Maybe it isn't a lie, it is pretty damn close.

So you are basically saying that from Oct 16, 2010 to Oct 31, 2010 you went from being a "bear" to being in contract to buy. Holy F*** that is one massive change of heart, mind, and soul.

I noticed you did not tell your blog of your actions until Aug 17, 2012. Of course you even told half truths at that time "Full disclosure, I began buying properties 18 months ago" That is a half truth because you actually started on Oct 31, 2010 not in March 2011 like you claim.

Now you come on hear and toot your own horn on a hourly basis.

And now robertoaribas will promptly meltdown, start calling me names, and cry to Patrick to have me banned. Even though I have not called him a liar, and have backed up his statements with his own statements. How did you put it

robertoaribas says

because unless someone cares to back it up with facts

Backed it up with facts! In fact in your own words.......

yup1 says

So you are basically saying that from Oct 16, 2010 to Oct 31, 2010 you went from being a "bear" to being in contract to buy. Holy F*** that is one massive change of heart, mind, and soul.

I noticed you did not tell your blog of your actions until Aug 17, 2012. Of course you even told half truths at that time "Full disclosure, I began buying properties 18 months ago" That is a half truth because you actually started on Oct 31, 2010 not in March 2011 like you claim.

Now you come on hear and toot your own horn on a hourly basis.

And there you have it no response from robertoaribas!

yup1 says

And now robertoaribas will promptly meltdown, start calling me names, and cry to Patrick to have me banned.

Looks like you did as predicted, again.....

robertoaribas says

obsessive little bitch ass

robertoaribas says

A smarter person than you

robertoaribas says

Now, I know your blind rage at me, or perhaps your general nature precludes much in the way of thinking.

robertoaribas says

Now, I know since you have your proctology headlite on, and are attempting to look straight up my rectum

robertoaribas says

You are extremely jealous of me, and will go to obsessive lengths to take me on, on here.

You attempt to weasel out with "I quit my blog" LOL

I wonder home many properties you had when you started posting again on Aug 17, 2012? I am gonna guess you had already purchased ALL of the properties you bought.

You are the equivalent of a wall street slimeball telling his clients to buy the same crap he is selling, and to sell the same crap he is buying. I mean you are selling yourself on your website as a professional.

"Roberto Ribas Realtor and Mathematics Professor.
I’ve been investing and working in real estate for over a decade. My background in mathematics enabled me to see the bubble coming. I have been researching housing bubbles and markets for many years now."

"Phoenix Finance and Home Buying Economics"

Nice advice you gave your readers on your website.

You are Realtard Scum!

yup1 says

My background in mathematics enabled me to see the bubble coming. I have been researching housing bubbles and markets for many years now."

I bet it had nothing to do with math. He was probably reading Dr. Housing Bubble's blog. That blog laid it out very concisely.

yup1 says

You attempt to weasel out with "I quit my blog" LOL

I wonder home many properties you had when you started posting again on Aug 17, 2012? I am gonna guess you had already purchased ALL of the properties you bought.

You are the equivalent of a wall street slimeball telling his clients to buy the same crap he is selling, and to sell the same crap he is buying. I mean you are selling yourself on your website as a professional.

"Roberto Ribas Realtor and Mathematics Professor.
I’ve been investing and working in real estate for over a decade. My background in mathematics enabled me to see the bubble coming. I have been researching housing bubbles and markets for many years now."

"Phoenix Finance and Home Buying Economics"

Nice advice you gave your readers on your website.

You are Realtard Scum!

You are complaining about his insults, and yet, you are also insulting him.
He's given you a perfectly cogent explanation of what he did, including a relevant link, so why are you continuing with this?

Bigsby says

You are complaining about his insults, and yet, you are also insulting him.

I called him Realtard Scum and you consider that an insult? He is a realtard which by definition means he is scum.

robertoaribas says

yup1, here is a link to get you started to dealing with your envy in a more healthy manner.

Why is it you think anyone would be envious of you?

I have no desire to be a slumlord. I have no desire to collect rents from the less fortunate. I have no desire to be a realtard and lead people to the path of debt slavery. I have no desire to be a junior college teacher leading those young minds to a life of debt slavery.

You obviously think very highly of yourself. Maybe you should reconsider.

yup1 says

Bigsby says

You are complaining about his insults, and yet, you are also insulting him.

I called him Realtard Scum and you consider that an insult? He is a realtard which by definition means he is scum.

It's an insult, so quit complaining about being insulted. If you want to dish it out...

yup1 says

I have no desire to be a slumlord. I have no desire to collect rents from the less fortunate. I have no desire to be a realtard and lead people to the path of debt slavery. I have no desire to be a junior college teacher leading those young minds to a life of debt slavery.

Damn, that's a lot of crap in one paragraph. And how does it make you feel belittling someone for being a teacher?

Bigsby says

It's an insult, so quit complaining about being insulted. If you want to dish it out...

Are you his little bitch?

Bigsby says

And how does it make you feel belittling someone for being a teacher?

Makes me feel just fine. Unlike you media programmed fucktards I do not believe that every teacher comes directly from heaven. In fact this little scunbag realtard and jc teacher says he left ASU to become a jc teacher for more pay, ROFL.

robertoaribas says

yup1 says

I have no desire to collect rents from the less fortunate.

The college students and young professionals who rent my places would have a serious issue with your characterizations... until they realize it is just haphazard insults from somebody terribly bitter with envy!

Oh you actually think you are providing a valuable service. Collecting rents from others is a valuable service for you, not for them.

robertoaribas says

all you can do is come on here and attack me!!!!

Attack, if you call pointing out what you have posted on here and your blog attacking you. I pointed out your deception on your blog. I pointed out your bragging about yoga classes. The truth hurts.

yup1 says

Bigsby says

It's an insult, so quit complaining about being insulted. If you want to dish it out...

Are you his little bitch?

Why are you spending your time pissing and moaning about being insulted whilst simultaneously insulting others? You come across as a complete dick.
yup1 says

Makes me feel just fine. Unlike you media programmed fucktards I do not believe that every teacher comes directly from heaven. In fact this little scunbag realtard and jc teacher says he left ASU to become a jc teacher for more pay, ROFL.

Who said every teacher came directly from heaven? But you decided to disparage a profession rather than directly address the person. I guess you are just a very important person with a very important job rather than the douche bag you come across as.

robertoaribas says

I take yoga at a hot yoga studio... You should try yoga, the meditative aspects might help you with your obvious envy and hatred.

The only envy here is your envy for more of you.

Why don't you log into Bigsby now and use him to defend you, again.

Sorry a little late on that one. HERE COMES BIGSBY/ROBERTO

yup1 says

robertoaribas says

I take yoga at a hot yoga studio... You should try yoga, the meditative aspects might help you with your obvious envy and hatred.

The only envy here is your envy for more of you.

Why don't you log into Bigsby now and use him to defend you, again.

Perhaps because we are two different posters.

robertoaribas says

yup1 says

The truth hurts.

it hurts you, that much is clear for everyone to see. You must not have any life at all, to spend so much time following me around here! Are you in love with me? face it, you have a homosexual crush on me, that is why you spend your days researching me! Notice I know nothing, and care nothing for you!

Now, go get yourself some help!

Again you think way too much of yourself. Kind of creepy dude. Are you going to all male yoga classes?

yup1 says

Again you think way too much of yourself. Kind of creepy dude. Are you going to all male yoga classes?

Nice. Adding a bit of homophobia to the mix. Classy stuff.