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Yale's Shiller Gives Insight on Housing Market


               
2013 Jan 31, 9:20am   6,205 views  19 comments

by FunTime   follow (1)  

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2127058979001/yales-shiller-gives-insight-on-housing-market/?source=Patrick.net

Shiller. I report indicated -- gotta say this is pretty good right US single family home prices continuing decline in November 10 month in a row. Of increases so we bring in Robert Shiller -- is the professor at Yale musical what -- of that report to. Tell us to come down maybe a little bit or to tell us that we finally turn the corner and housing. As reflected in prices is looking pretty good what he say professor Shiller. Well of course runs its stake com how -- there isn't that exciting. We we had a huge exciting...

#housing

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18   Raw   @   2013 Feb 4, 9:16am  

FunTime says

"If someone had to pick -- all my money in the stock market or all my money in index bonds," Shiller says, "TIPS would win hands down.

I like stocks, but if I had to choose something in bonds, TIPS would be it.
With rates close to zero, rates cannot go anywhere else but up, which would spell a disaster for bonds. Ofcourse, Uncle Sam will be footing most of that bill when the time comes.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100431901

19   thomaswong.1986   @   2013 Feb 4, 5:19pm  

Raw says

He is brilliant when it comes to devising analytical tools and formulas, but when it comes to forecasting he is a disaster. Ask yourself, if he can accurately forecast why isn't he a billionaire?

actually he has done well $$$ writing about the irrational behavior of investors. and frankly his predictions did come true both to the stock and later home price bubble. Frankly, his book Irrational Exuberance i expect to be classic reading for decades to come but not as economics but behavior sciences.

"The behavioral finance school gained new credibility following the October 1987 stock market crash. Shiller's work included survey research that asked investors and stock traders what motivated them to make trades; the results further bolstered his hypothesis that these decisions are often driven by emotion instead of rational calculation. Much of this survey data has been gathered continuously since 1989, and is available at Yale's"

He did not create any tools that were not already there be they the Price to Earnings multiple for stocks or Home price to individual income multiple to home prices... its been around for decades for any individual to see.

If anything, Shillers tools is a simple question... Why do you believe you will get 20% appreciation on your home ? And let the emotions fly.....

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