patrick.net

"Stockman argues the problem in housing is the two forces needed for a recovery, first-time buyers and trade-up buyers, are missing. With the combination of 7.9% unemployment and staggering student loan debt, he doesn’t see a young generation of new home buyers coming into the market. And with baby boomers heading for retirement with less than adequate savings, he thinks they’ll be trading down with their homes, not up."

first shoulder than a peak ... currently at second shoulder followed by the decline.

I am not sure if the green inflation line is even an indicator of a possible bottom. Net income is shrinking (thanks to new taxes), wages I think will continue to fall so inflation will only make home prices fall further because it makes cost of living go up. I think we are in an inflationary depression like scenario which is a pretty bad situation for home prices.

HousingBoom says

I think we are in an inflationary depression like scenario which is a pretty bad situation for home prices.

deflation is certainly a possibility. our national economy since 1700s has certainly seen greater amount of deflation than inflation (last 40 years).