patrick.net

....for the long-term dividend growth investor ....

AverageBear says

...Now would be a good time to initiate, or add to an Aflac (AFL) position.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AFL&a=06&b=19&c=1984&d=03&e=7&f=2013&g=v

I guess I'm missing something. How does the "With the Bank of Japan's race to debase..." correlate to Aflac? I don't understand the relationship.

I think AFL could take a 2.5-5 point haircut easy enough. Then it might be a good time to initiate some scale in. A small position could be initiated at about 48+/- or any decent drop, however ultimately I would be looking for and targeting 44.50+/- and take the full trade, what ever your risk appetite allows (3%).

Graybox, I agree. I should have updated my initial statement, to keep an eye out to see if it drops any more... 75% of Aflac's business is done in Japan, and a weaker yen 'could' mean lower profits for Aflac. However, this is blown out of proportion by Wall Street, because Aflac's US profits, and some pre-planned hedging of the foreign exchange, shoudn't affect Aflac's dividend (or growth of dividend)...

This dip can be seen as a good entry point, but timing for a further short-term dip can be tricky. (I know I suck at timinh).. Maybe put 50% of position now, and see if you can get your 2nd half at a lower price?

I do like correlations and I think you maybe on to something. I trade 7 JPY currency pairs however I'm not much for playing the div. trades, nothing wrong with them just not my thing. AFL does preform well on the dividend side for sure.

Note of caution;
Do realize the JPY has the characteristic of trending for long periods of time. After looking at the technicals again there is a reasonably high probability AFL 40 is on the table, a bit of a price vacuum sits just under 48. Some tighter risk controls might be a good idea, I would divide the risk at least by 3 and more so by 4 saving some (50%) for a $40 position.

Perhaps a 25% position to start just to feed the beast, however to be honest even at $48 based on the JPY I would not even risk a 25% of my position due to not having price probability on my side. Where ever you are looking to buy I do encourage doing so on confirmation of price, such as a 3-bar reversal or what ever method you use to confirm price is on your side.

I know long term div. investing has it's own metrics and system however we all want to buy low and sell high.... Who doesn't like 50% more cash.

Graybox, Thanks for the info... I'm not a technical investor/trader, so this addition to my position would be for the long haul. I'll buy small amounts (as that's all I can afford), during small dips... I'll only sell a stock if the dividend growth stalls/stops, or is cut.... So, I bought 50 shares at 48.80 today.... And I'll buy more if it dips in the future...We'll see if AFL will grow it's dividend as it has in the past... Cheers..

I placed a few alerts on AFL it will be interesting to watch.

good times

http://www.businessinsider.com/usdjpy-nears-100-2013-4

If I can get a new Nissan GTR for $75000 thanks to Abe, I will jump on it.

My summer trip to Japan has just got a whole lot cheaper.

Enjoy your radiation.

Good to see you have some green since you bought....

AverageBear says

a weaker yen 'could' mean lower profits for Aflac

I though I might mention I read that the correlation coefficient AFL- JPY is just about N/A @.17, Believe it or not AFL is more coefficient to the EUR I guess they do lots of bus. with the EUR. It comes in @ .47 which is basically still neutral. I don't know if this info is valid or not.

Correlation is a great tool though, I have a live feed from my broker that I correlate 29 currency pairs as well as country vrs. country. I am more apt to look at .75 and over -.75 and under. I trade 16 pairs using a parallel/inverse strategy which can be used in a variety of ways above and beyond it's designed purpose.