patrick.net

david1 says

indigenous says

The way it was predicted was though the use of praxeology.

LOL. I have said it before - I am not smart enough to follow Hayek in the abstract but I can add the numbers myself.

But you can follow Krugman?

indigenous says

But you can follow Krugman?

The numbers back Krugman.

david1 says

The numbers back Krugman.

that and the NY Times but after that...

david1 says

Rockefeller held 90% market share for 25 years - you really think he was undercutting prices over those years? He was dictating the market price.

Standard Oil was not founded until 1870. It was simply an superbly managed early mover in a brand new industry at the time. Kerosene was the primary product before 1911 (when the breakup was ordered), and kerosene price was cut by more than 70% in those decades. On the even of the breakup, Standard Oil only controlled 11% of oil exploration and crude production. While it did account for 90% of refining, half of the refined products were exports, and Standard Oil was more or less the only major exporter of refined oil products (kerosene) as it had literally created the kerosene lamp market in the far east.

At a time when most oil refiners tossed away gasoline, Standard was using the waste fuel for running its own machinery and heating. It also launched the petrochemical industry in the US, making highly profitable consumer products from crude oil that enabled it to under-price competition for kerosene, the main refined product from crude oil at that time.

The whole anti-trust litigation against Standard Oil was rather similar to the government case against IBM in the 70's and against MSFT in the 90's . . . companies that had experienced early mover advantages in a new and rapidly growing industry, and were just about to be eclipsed by new technological development as the industry matured. In the case of Standard, it lost dominance in the world market to much cheaper Russian production at the end of 19th century, just before the government brought the anti-trust case that eventually led to the break-up.

Reality says

It was simply an superbly managed early mover in a brand new industry at the time. Kerosene was the primary product before 1911 (when the breakup was ordered), and kerosene price was cut by more than 70% in those decades.

Do some research. The price for refined products fell yes, but MARGINS certainly did not. Despite gained increased horizontal efficiencies, margins never fell below the point that it was forced into by competition prior to reaching monopoly status for over ten years after obtaining monopoly status, and they frequently increased. This is substantial considering Standard sold 10B gallons of kerosene in these ten years.

Combine this with the ability to depress the price of crude, despite holding only 11% of deposits as you mentioned. It matters not - at 90% refining monopoly, he could control price of crude by simply not buying. He was the ONLY buyer.

As you mentioned Russian and German refineries coming online in the 1890s began to chip away at that market share and margin - but he still had huge market share (over 60% i believe) until the breakup.

david1 says

Do some research. The price for refined products fell yes, but MARGINS certainly did not.

So what? The oil industry was still very young. Prices being cut by more than half was far more important to the consumers of kerosene than some dumb f*ck wasting gasoline and unable to maintain a high margin. Do your own damn research. Since when was giving a shop away a condition of doing business in the US? The real reason from the complaints from the competitors was actually that Standard wasn't charging enough Margin! The price was so low as to put the other "honest businessmen" out of business! Standard Oil was simply the most efficient producer in the US. Many former competitors decided to join Standard Oil after being shown the operating cost book at Standard.

By 1911, competitors was catching up to Standard Oil, which had seen its refining market share dropping to 60% in the US (half of which was for export, so really only little more than 30% share of US consumption).

Reality says

When you put that $5 gazillion under your mattress, you removed that $5 gazillion from money supply in the market place. It is no different from if you had burned it so long as you don't take it back out to spend it.

OK--then your definition of money supply is basically worthless, because it cannot be measured.

Reality says

So you are telling me Warren Buffet is worth $50billion only after he sold everything and hold $50billion in paper cash in his hands?

I'm telling you Warren Buffet's estimated worth is $50 billion. And that's not the same as having $50 billion in cash.

tatupu70 says

When you put that $5 gazillion under your mattress, you removed that $5 gazillion from money supply in the market place. It is no different from if you had burned it so long as you don't take it back out to spend it.

OK--then your definition of money supply is basically worthless, because it cannot be measured.

You are just another puppy lost to the number fetish. The concept of money supply, just like the concept of economy size, are not directly accurately measurable. Otherwise, there wouldn't be so many different M numbers, each trying to approximate the _differential_ in change of money supply. Yes, in case you did not know, all the M numbers or GDP numbers are not considered actual size measures, but the changes in numbers allegedly reflect the changes in the underlying conceptual reality.

Someone putting a wad of cash under the mattress for the long term, or drop the wad in a lake, or burn the wad, is obviously removing the wad from money supply in the economy. Government econometricians' inability to account for it, unlike the torn and worn notes recycled at the mint, is a flaw in methodology . . . does not change the fact that money removed by private sector (by deliberate act or accident) has the same effect on money supply as money removed by the mint/treasury/FED.

Reality says

You are just another puppy lost to the number fetish.

lol--yes, us lost puppies that prefer facts, numbers, data. You know--commonly called supporting evidence. Obviously lack of such doesn't particularly worry you.

Just out of curiosity--when does it enter the money supply? When I put it in my wallet? When I spend it? What if I go to the Porsche dealer with $200K but decide against buying--is that $200K in the money supply while I was at the dealer?

Reality says

So what? The oil industry was still very young. Prices being cut by more than
half was far more important to the consumers of kerosene than some dumb f*ck
wasting gasoline and unable to maintain a high margin.

Competition forces falling margins. The fact Standard was able to maintain margins is the benefit of holding a monopoly. Reality says

Standard Oil was simply the most efficient producer in the US. Many former
competitors decided to join Standard Oil after being shown the operating cost
book at Standard.

Standard was the most efficient because of horizontal efficiencies with shipping. What are you arguing, that Standard's practicies were not monopolistic?
Reality says

Do your own damn research.

It will be better than the research on Standard you swiped from wikipedia.

david1 says

Competition forces falling margins. The fact Standard was able to maintain margins is the benefit of holding a monopoly.

Not necessarily true in a rapidly growing industry where a constant stream of new customers could still be found every day. The oil industry was certainly a rapidly growing one in the late 19th century. After 1900 or so, Standard Oil maintained margin by losing worldwide market share.

Standard was the most efficient because of horizontal efficiencies with shipping. What are you arguing, that Standard's practicies were not monopolistic?

Standard also generated far less waste than most its competitors in the first couple decades of its existence. It was also pioneer of highly profitable petrochemical industry in the US, thereby reducing the adjust production cost of the main line product kerosene. After 1900, competitors were catching up both in material utilization and forming their own horizontal shipping collaborations.

Reality says

After 1900, competitors were catching up both in material utilization and
forming their own horizontal shipping collaborations.

After Standrad "chilled out" on the monopolistic practices following the passing of Sherman in 1890.

Reality says

After 1900 or so, Standard Oil maintained margin by losing worldwide market
share.

They didn't maintain margin, it fell overall, but they didn't lower margin to be anticompetitive due to Sherman.

david1 says

After 1900, competitors were catching up both in material utilization and

forming their own horizontal shipping collaborations.

After Standrad "chilled out" on the monopolistic practices following the passing of Sherman in 1890.

You probably also think the decline of MSFT and passing of leadership to Google and Apple were due to government anti-trust suit in the early 1990's. LOL. Apparently, it doesn't occur to you that as a company becomes industrial leader for a decade or two, it starts to attract dead weight sinecure seekers who signed up for "job security" just like IBM used to have a reputation for never laying off anyone (before the 1990's). Do you think the decline of IBM and passing leadership to MSFT and Apple in the 80's was also due to government anti-trust suits the decade before?

The result of those sinecure seekers is that the company then lose its edge. Just look at MSFT, its Windows Mobile and Windows 8 fiasco. The company has become too ponderous to execute. The same thing was happening to Standard after the first couple decades of rapid growth. While it still had dominant share of the old oil fields in the east, it lost to competitors left and right in the much faster growing western states.

They didn't maintain margin, it fell overall, but they didn't lower margin to be anticompetitive due to Sherman.

It was beaten domestically by competition in the western states, and internationally by German refiners and Russian oil explorers.

david1 says

It is apparently a coincidence that ~10 years after major ant-trust legislation was passed and numerous threats were made to Standard for their anti-competitive practices they STOPPED acquiring all of their competitors and/or running them into the ground.

Perhaps the competitors in the western states and overseas being just as efficient as Standard, which itself had declined in efficiency due to corporate bloat, had much to do with it. Like I said, do you think the MSFT woes with Windows Mobile and Windows8 in the past decade are due to government anti-trust threats a decade earlier? Or largely due to the big corporation having become a bureaucracy and hence no longer having the efficiency that it had earlier.

david1 says

Nope.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=ijL

You probably meant this but still no. Definately increasing.

?g=ijN

Reality says

corporate bloat

There is literally no proof of this existing in Standard or even commonly. You speak of it like it is inevitable.

Reality says

Assigning a number doesn't necessary clarify the issue

True, but having no way to quantify makes a measurement entirely useless. How can you tell if it's rising, falling, or staying the same?

Reality says

It starts to affect your behavior when you took off to the Porsche dealership with the intention of spending the money.

So, like I said, under your definition, money supply is impossible to measure. And therefore, inflation is impossible to measure. Which makes it a useless concept.

If you can't measure it, then how can you tell if it has any effect? Or what causes it?

Reality says

or salaries of the CEO's of the 327 largest companies being the same as that of all CEO's.

The Fortune 500 clears $11.75T in revenue

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2012/full_list/index.html

73% of total US GDP.

Throw out your clowncar rightwing economics books and learn some real economics:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

Bellingham Bill says

The Fortune 500 clears $11.75T in revenue

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2012/full_list/index.html

73% of total US GDP.

Do you happen to know that only corporate profit, not revenue, contribute to GDP?

Bellingham Bill says

Throw out your clowncar rightwing economics books and learn some real economics:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

Of course I know what pareto-principle is. I also have enough common sense to realize that Fortunate 500 companies do not generate 73% of total US GDP.

Reality says

Do you happen to know that only corporate profit, not revenue, contribute to
GDP?

Value add would probably include more than profit. Wages most probably. Fees paid to vendors perhaps. A percentage of capital investments maybe.

indigenous says

Is this in reference to domestic products or foreign produced products? It makes sense that if they were foreign produced that they would not be counted. But it does not make sense if they were produced domestically they would not be included?

Unless the car maker makes a profit, the value of the car in GDP is already fully accounted for by the input factors: the wages, the parts vendors etc. So nothing is contributed by the car maker itself unless there is added value, i.e. profit.

Reality says

how is that fundamentally different from a gang of vandals?

This is not related to my point. It wouldn't be, btw. I was simply contradicting your point that "only corporate profit" contributes to GDP.

Are you claiming that if every unprofitable corporation were eliminated, there would be no net effect on GDP?

You know there are unstream and downstream relationships that would be damaged. You know the workers unemployment (if even temporary) would damage GDP. So just admit a Company contributes more to GDP than simply its profit.

david1 says

Are you claiming that if every unprofitable corporation were eliminated, there would be no net effect on GDP?

There would be a positive net effect on GDP. That's literally what the math says.

You know there are unstream and downstream relationships that would be damaged. You know the workers unemployment (if even temporary) would damage GDP. So just admit a Company contributes more to GDP than simply its profit.

That's a different issue altogether. You are assuming the workers and intermediate products vendors can not find alternative customers. Regardless they can or can not, the contribution from a money losing company to GDP is literally negative. That's just simple arithmetic.

I wog said:
"There are three ways to put money into the hands of consumers:

1. debt
2. wages
3. government entitlements

If you know of a 4th way, please tell me."

and I gave three examples of other sources of money for consumers to spend.

4. interest
5. rent
6. sales of property/goods

to which I wog replied:

"Absolutely not. Interest is money moving up the scale. It's earnings on capital. Same with commerce. At best it's in the same category as wages. Sale of property and goods is only an increase in spending money if it's done at a profit and then again it's earnings on capital."

so in other words....
in I wog world. Wages = interest
in I wog world: Wages = Rent
in I wog world: Wages = selling property

in I wog world there are only three ways that consumers get money, borrow it, earn an hourly wage, government gives it to you.

I am glad we don't live in I wog world!

Oh,

and here is one more way to increase demand by consumers via lower costs and/or higher incomes.

7. lower or eliminate income/sales taxes

Vaticanus says

Oh,

and here is one more way to increase demand by consumers via lower costs and/or higher incomes.

7. lower or eliminate income/sales taxes

8. Allow the production and sale of illegal goods( eg absinthe, sassafras oil, etc )
9. Eliminate quotas( eg sugar, ethanol ,etc )

In another thread I wog said: "EVERYONE CALLED THE FUCKING REAL ESTATE BUBBLE!!!! The reason it continued for as long as it did was people who DIDN'T CARE it was a bubble were giving away free mortgage money. NOT investors."

I especially like how you admit that banks were giving away free money, money which they essentially created out of thin air mind you. Brilliant demonstration of how the supply is VERY flexible under our current Keynsian Nightmare system of fractional reserve banking bets backed by the FED.

Vaticanus says

I don't know any American with no children who is willing and able to work that
cannot earn enough to have the necessities and a little discretionary income to
boot.

You need to get out more.

indigenous says

If what Keynes said is true then there would have been no economy before central
bankers.

What did Keynes say?

indigenous says

Then tell us what Keynes said

Keynes said a whole bunch of things. However, I'm trying to find out to what you are specifically referring when you said this:

indigenous says

If what Keynes said is true then there would have been no economy before central
bankers.

I'm assuming there is something he said that made you write that...

tatupu70 says

indigenous says

Then tell us what Keynes said

Keynes said a whole bunch of things. However, I'm trying to find out to what you are specifically referring when you said this:

indigenous says

If what Keynes said is true then there would have been no economy before central

bankers.

I'm assuming there is something he said that made you write that...

The basic concept that I'm getting from keynesians is that the economy is created by government spending.

indigenous says

The basic concept that I'm getting from keynesians is that the economy is
created by government spending.

For someone who talks about Keynesian economics as much as you do, I would have expected at least a cursory understanding beyond typical coservative talking points. Obviously I gave you too much credit.

indigenous says

What also creates demand is investment in small business

Really? How does that work? Please explain in more detail.

tatupu70 says

indigenous says

The basic concept that I'm getting from keynesians is that the economy is

created by government spending.

For someone who talks about Keynesian economics as much as you do, I would have expected at least a cursory understanding beyond typical coservative talking points. Obviously I gave you too much credit.

Yes clearly, can you explain your perspective?

thunderlips11 says

The fundamental problem with capitalism is that profits always move money up the pyramid. There needs to be some system to move money down the pyramid, however this particular FACT doesn't appear to interest free-market lunatics and they just assume there will always be customers regardless of who holds all the cash.

Austrians explain that by time-demand problems.

You see, rich genius self-actualized entrepreneur decides he will put off buying a diamond dog collar for Tibbles, his toy puddle, until later, and use the money to invest in a new enterprise, a chain of convenience stores.

Bumette the baglady spends all her resources on buying a hotdog because she is hungry.

Therefore, we can see why rich genius the self-actualized entrepreneur is rich and Bumette the baglady is poor. The former delays consumption, but the latter irresponsibly spends all their resources on immediate gratification.

Of course the bag lady could do some work? You know pull over
and ask one of them will work for food fellers to get in your car and you will put them to work and see what happens.

indigenous says

The main dynamic behind this is comparative advantage which is the foundation of
the modern economy

What's the comparative advantage that the Chinese have in manufacturing? Do you consider the fact that they have lots of people willing to work for nothing a comparative advantage?

tatupu70 says

indigenous says

The main dynamic behind this is comparative advantage which is the foundation of

the modern economy

What's the comparative advantage that the Chinese have in manufacturing? Do you consider the fact that they have lots of people willing to work for nothing a comparative advantage?

Their comparative advantage is lots of low cost labor.

You do realize the per capita income in China has gone from $500 per year to $7000 per year in the last 10 years?

Look we have been over these points many times.

I don't have the time to do this.

I will give you one last comment each

indigenous says

You do realize the per capita income in China has gone from $500 per year to
$7000 per year in the last 10 years?

I sure do.

The interesting scenario is what would happen under following conditions:

1) Those who have disposable income would never finance anything except the house - cars/clothes/vacations/other discretionary items would be paid in cash/atm/credit card paid off before interest comes due

2) People would hunker down and constrict spending on discretionary items and save as much money as possible for a few years.

Would these behaviors teach the elites not to take things for granted?