patrick.net

Reality says

All that money paid out as wages on such counter-productive work has to be
taken from taxpayers now or in the future with interest added.

The multiplier effect in this case is negative! As it destroys productive
jobs via taxation now and in the future to pay for the government waste.

I disagree. The net effect of "taxes taken" would be forced consumption. That is, some percentage X of the taxes taken to pay Solyndra employees would have been saved anyway, adding no benefit to the demand economy at a time when the economy surely needed demand. Alternatively, some percentage Y of the wages paid would also be saved. However, as long as X>Y (and assuming no borrowing here, while we both acknowledge borrowing is what happened in reality you used the taxes example) the multiplier effect is not negative, not zero, not 1, but greater than 1.

Reality says

The real beneficiaries of Solyndra are the well-connected corporate cronies who
could draw much larger paychecks as a result of government subsidy.

No disagreement with this statement in principle, however you are looking at the wrong culprit. The owners of Solyndra (capital) emerged victorious from the wreckage with nearly $1B losses able to be applied to future gains. Primary debtors are left holding the bag.

This is why I chose Solyndra - to in effect head off where the conversation may go next - to the bailouts of the automakers. The real beneficiaries of a liquidation in Detroit (which we would have had) would have been a few monied interests with access to capital at that time. It would have been a consolidation of wealth and power grab by vultures and opportunists. Those manufacturing jobs would have been in Mexico and other countries willing to help with labor arbritrage faster than you can say Foxconn.

david1 says

The net effect of "taxes taken" would be forced consumption.

Such forced consumption is no different from the 19th century French that hired gangs of workers to dig holes on the side of the road and filling them back up. The ultimate result was economic collapse and the political turmoil of 1848 (and the birth of Communism Manifesto, perhaps that kind of circumstance is what some want for the near future).

That is, some percentage X of the taxes taken to pay Solyndra employees would have been saved anyway, adding no benefit to the demand economy at a time when the economy surely needed demand.

This anti-savings attitude among Keynesians is really quite non-sensical. Savings (consuming less than production) is the very source of capital formation. When a recession hits, the economic slow down is indicative the existing capital structure running into limitations reality (e.g. natural resource limit, etc.), so a new form of capital is urgently needed to utilize available resources more efficiently. Savings (consuming less than production) provides the resources to make such long term capital structure adjustment, so a new and more productive relationship among resource, labor and capital can emerge and give rise to recovery while rendering old capital obsolete.

The Keynesian policy of suppressing savings and artificially pumping up old pre-crisis demand literally gets in the way of such a transition and reformation. It is literally a policy prescription for entrenching the old established capital by evicerating what could emerge to replace them. It is little wonder that after a few decades Keynesian practices, the working class is reduced to semi-slavery existence under the entrenched capital . . . for there is a lack of new alternative capital to offer the workers a better deal!

Alternatively, some percentage Y of the wages paid would also be saved. However, as long as X>Y (and assuming no borrowing here, while we both acknowledge borrowing is what happened in reality you used the taxes example) the multiplier effect is not negative, not zero, not 1, but greater than 1.

Reality says

This anti-savings attitude among Keynesians is really quite non-sensical

Your ignorance on Keynesian attitudes is what is non-sensical. Keynesians are not anti-savings at all. Your inability to understand the difference between an economy with too little capital vs. one with too little demand is hard to believe.

Re: Anti-Savings.

We have strayed quite far from talking about Keynes pulling a multiplier effect from his ass, haven't we?

My argument would be that if the savings taken via taxes come largely from those who would only use those savings for rent-seeking behaviors that are destructive to growth, then take away.

david1 says

Re: Anti-Savings.

We have strayed quite far from talking about Keynes pulling a multiplier effect from his ass, haven't we?

No, we haven't. Saving and investment are two sides of the same coin. Someone has to be saving (consuming less than producing) in order to for himself or for someone else to use the difference to invest in higher order machinery (i.e. capital formation).

My argument would be that if the savings taken via taxes come largely from those who would only use those savings for rent-seeking behaviors that are destructive to growth, then take away.

The very idea of new capital formation is to reduce the market power of existing rent-seekers, and offer both workers and natural resources a a more productive combination. Someone has to save (consuming less than producing) in order to come up with the difference to make the production of such new machinery or new business (i.e. new capital formation) possible!

Your very beloved Keynesianism is a rent-seeker entrenchment tool.

tatupu70 says

Your ignorance on Keynesian attitudes is what is non-sensical. Keynesians are not anti-savings at all. Your inability to understand the difference between an economy with too little capital vs. one with too little demand is hard to believe.

Sounds like you don't know much about Keynes at all. He is on record advocating reducing interest on savings to zero over time ("in one generation" was his plan). If that's not anti-savings, I don't know what is.

You don't seem to understand capital or demand either. Capital investment creates its own demand. The idea of "too little demand" is really quite silly. People always have more wants. Those wants failing to translate into Qualified Demand is usually due to existing capital structure unable to deliver supply at a price low enough given existing natural resource constraints. That's why new capital formation is critically needed so supply can reach market at lower price (and still profitable for the producer) so people's wants are satisfied as "qualified demand."

Reality says

Capital investment creates its own demand.

Oh no--another Say's Law proponent? Reality says

The idea of "too little demand" is really quite silly. People always have more
wants.

Demand requires not only the "want" but also the means to satisfy that "want". When people have no money, by definition, they have no demand.

tatupu70 says

indigenous says

Actions are what I look at, the hell with the theory.

Well then why the hell would you call it Keynesian if you know it's not? Call it politicians spending too much on defense because that's what it is.

I guess it depends on what your definition of defense is.

Maybe military can play defense thru good offense, the way peyton manning and kurt warner, and even tom brady at times , have done in the nfl. I'm still not sold that you can encapsulate those type actions into the definition of defense, but I've been wrong before

tatupu70 says

Reality says

Capital investment creates its own demand.

Oh no--another Say's Law proponent?

Says Law is not even necessary to recognize that Capital Investment creates its own Demand. "I" is one of the items in the general equilibrium formula.

tatupu70 says

Demand requires not only the "want" but also the means to satisfy that "want". When people have no money, by definition, they have no demand.

Yet, government giving people money only serves to rob Peter to pay Paul. Take a wild guess whether the rich or the poor is more likely to buy off and have the politicians in their own pockets? The fundamental solution to satisfying more and more human wants and needs has to come from more productive ways of combining labor and resources into goods and services that people want at prices that people can afford.

Reality says

He is on record advocating reducing interest on savings to zero over time ("in
one generation" was his plan).

Keynes was anti-excess savings (savings over and above what was necessary for investment). Too much savings will lead to underemployment. That's why wealth disparity is such a problem--the 1% saves way too much.

tatupu70 says

Keynes was anti-excess savings (savings over and above what was necessary for investment). Too much savings will lead to underemployment.

That's a ridiculous set of statements. Did you ever read Keynes' book? or do you just make up things in your own mind and attribute it to Keynes?

The idea that too much savings would leadto underemployment is preposterous. Money in savings accounts don't just sit there. The money is swept every night and invested.

That's why wealth disparity is such a problem--the 1% saves way too much.

Shall we mandate that the 1% must each spend 10% of their income on Ferrari's? LOL. To the extent that the wealthy consumes less than they produce, that's a good thing . . . so there's more resources for the rest of us to consume! So plebian cars and mere "luxury" cars are still made for us, instead of the ultra-lux cars sucking up all production resources.

The real problem in our current society is the encourage of dis-savings among the poor and middle class, so the upward social mobility that used to be so traditionally American is now so broken.

Reality says

The fundamental solution to satisfying more and more human wants and needs has
to come from more productive ways of combining labor and resources into goods
and services that people want at prices that people can afford.

Correct. But that doesn't happen with no demand. There is no investement without demand.

Reality says

The idea that too much savings would leadto underemployment is preposterous.
Money in savings accounts don't just sit there. The money is swept every night
and invested.

Really? What are short term treasuries paying now? Or bank savings accounts?

Reality says

The real problem in our current society is the encourage of dis-savings among
the poor and middle class, so the upward social mobility that used to be so
traditionally American is now so broken.

You have got to be kdiding. The problem is that the guy making $7/hour at Walmart isn't saving enough??? Are you able to type this stuff without laughing?

tatupu70 says

Correct. But that doesn't happen with no demand. There is no investement without demand.

What kind of market demand was there when iPod, iPhone and iPad were merely figments of Steve Jobs' imagination?

The big breakthroughs in life are not result of endless replications, but genuine entreprenuership.

tatupu70 says

Really? What are short term treasuries paying now? Or bank savings accounts?

Not nearly high enough. The FED is robbing the retirees to pay the banksters.

tatupu70 says

You have got to be kdiding. The problem is that the guy making $7/hour at Walmart isn't saving enough??? Are you able to type this stuff without laughing?

Walmart pays more than minimum wage. In any case, the lack of savings among low to mid-income families make them much more vulnerable to what essentially is loan sharking by banksters. That condemns them to perpetual and generational poverty.

Reality says

How can what he said and wrote in his magna opus ("The General Theory"), the
defining work of his economic theory not matter?

This is such a ridiculous use of the latin term and not correct...it would be magnum opus. Or perhaps you meant plural "great works" which would be Magna opera, if my grammar school latin holds.

Anyway, the problem you have here is I usually remember when I have read something before....and curiously, the wikipedia page on Keynes also refers to "General Theory" as his Magnum Opus.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes

Did you write the wikipedia page on Keynes? jk....

It was lifted from Martin Frost so maybe you are he...

Just use normal english and make your points. We already know you are pretty bright so speaking like this is unneccesary.

Reality says

The idea that too much savings would leadto underemployment is preposterous.

So please explain this one. With math or examples, please.

Reality says

That condemns them to perpetual and generational poverty.

Funny, I thought what condemned them to generational poverty had something to do with the amount of their productivity siphoned to the top...ie how low their wages were.

Reality says

What kind of market demand was there when iPod, iPhone and iPad were merely
figments of Steve Jobs' imagination?

Huge demand. That's why Jobs figured out a way to make them.

Reality says

The big breakthroughs in life are not result of endless replications, but
genuine entreprenuership.

Yep--how does that relate to the discussion at hand?

Reality says

tatupu70 says

Really? What are short term treasuries paying now? Or bank savings accounts?

Not nearly high enough. The FED is robbing the retirees to pay the banksters.

Yep.

david1 says

Did you write the wikipedia page on Keynes? jk....

It was lifted from Martin Frost so maybe you are he...

Just use normal english and make your points. We already know you are pretty bright so speaking like this is unneccesary.

Thanks, but no and no to the two bold guesses. Obviously, if I were Martin Frost or read Wikipedia, I wouldn't have made the rather rudimentary mistake in Latin. I used the expression for two reasons: 1. the significance of the book in the context of Keynes' theory; 2. the book was written in such a (unnecessarily) convoluted and dense way that a Latin phrase would be appropriate.

david1 says

The idea that too much savings would leadto underemployment is preposterous.

So please explain this one. With math or examples, please.

1. Savings are invested.

2. Japan, Korea and China all had/have extremely high savings rate during their massive economic growth period. Comes to think of it, the US had very high savings rate in the 1950's. The problems began in the 70's, after the savings rate dropped starting in the late 60's.

david1 says

Funny, I thought what condemned them to generational poverty had something to do with the amount of their productivity siphoned to the top...ie how low their wages were.

Considering how high the youth unemployment rate is both in this country and in Europe, largely due to minimum wage laws, it's questionable how much productivity those baseline retail jobs can have.

The lack of savings deprive the poor family of any opportunity to start their own businesses, which used to be what made Americans upward socially mobile. Read the biographies of Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford and etc. I don't think many youths of America today are aware of iconic American figures from an earlier much more upward mobile era.

tatupu70 says

Reality says

What kind of market demand was there when iPod, iPhone and iPad were merely

figments of Steve Jobs' imagination?

Huge demand. That's why Jobs figured out a way to make them.

No, the market didn't exist. Jobs' supply created the demand. That's the market premium of Apple.

Reality says

The problems began in the 70's, after the savings rate dropped starting in the
late 60's.

Hmm. Nice, but the problem is my data shows the savings rate rangebound by 5 and 8% in the 1950s, 7 and 10% in the 1960s, 8 and 13% in the 1970s, and hovering between 10 and 12% in the early 1980s until around 1985, where the savings rate gradually deteriorated to 2.5% today.

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Reality says

No, the market didn't exist. Jobs' supply created the demand. That's the
market premium of Apple.

The market existed. For an iphone--it was cell phones or smart phones.

But even the market didn't exist-there could still be demand. Before cell phones were manufactured, there was demand for a phone that could work anywhere. Just no product to satisfy that demand.

david1 says

Hmm. Nice, but the problem is my data shows the savings rate rangebound by 5 and 8% in the 1950s, 7 and 10% in the 1960s, 8 and 13% in the 1970s, and hovering between 10 and 12% in the early 1980s until around 1985, where the savings rate gradually deteriorated to 2.5% today.

Are you talking about savings account interest rate or per centage of income put into bank savings account? The numbers don't look right for generalized savings that would include the entire difference between earning and consumption (i.e. not just bank savings accounts, but also financial investment of all kinds).

tatupu70 says

The market existed. For an iphone--it was cell phones or smart phones.

But even the market didn't exist-there could still be demand. Before cell phones were manufactured, there was demand for a phone that could work anywhere. Just no product to satisfy that demand.

The "Demand" in economic discussion is a very specific term, not just want, but a qualified demand meeting price points. There could not have been quantifiable qualified demand before the price point for iPhone was set.

Reality says

replacing old capital structure (which has run into a wall as proven by recession) with a New Capital Structure that liberate human labor and natural resources to more productive use.

sounds pretty Marxist to me! Sign me up!

Of course, the recession happened in the aftermath of the home ATM running out of cash, starting in 2006. I haunt DeLong's site regularly trying to make him understand that, LOL.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=i9G

is a graph I posted for him today -- blue is YOY job growth, red is YOY consumer debt take on . . . borrowing our way to prosperity!

We don't have a supply-side problem, we have the problem that J6P -- aka Mr & Mrs Consumer -- got tapped out 5+ years ago:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT

THAT'S who hit the fucking wall, not capitalism per se.

Push a trillion dollars into the middle class's hands again, like what the housing bubble was doing 2004-2005, and things would be great again.

Reality says

The "Demand" in economic discussion is a very specific term, not just want,
but a qualified demand meeting price points. There could not have been
quantifiable qualified demand before the price point for iPhone was set.

Sure there can. Jobs goes out and asks people if they'd be willing to buy an iPhone like device at $100. Or $200. Or $300. etc.

The true demand at any price point is never known exactly. It depends on the price of substitute items as well as many, many other factors. I'm not sure what your point is--nobody invests capital without having an idea of the demand for what they are going to make.

Bellingham Bill says

Reality says

replacing old capital structure (which has run into a wall as proven by recession) with a New Capital Structure that liberate human labor and natural resources to more productive use.

sounds pretty Marxist to me! Sign me up!

Not at all Marxist. Marxism advocates a centralized economic and social structure that would put an end to future on-going creative destruction for capital. That's why the soviet car factories were still building 1950's Lada's all the way to the 1980's. That's the very antithesis of what I'm advocating here. Keynesianism is essentially a mild version of Marxism that advocates government subsidy to keep the Lada factory in business after the consumers already expressed wishes for something new.

Bellingham Bill says

We don't have a supply-side problem, we have the problem that J6P -- aka Mr & Mrs Consumer -- got tapped out 5+ years ago:

That's just another way of saying the consumers are having a hang-over from past over-consumption and debt. The solution to that is not more alcohol and more debt, but more productive jobs to pay off the debt. That requires new capital formation displacing old jobs with new more productive jobs.

Bellingham Bill says

Push a trillion dollars into the middle class's hands again, like what the housing bubble was doing 2004-2005, and things would be great again.

hmm, this policy prescription sound awefully like telling the patient suffering from hang-over to just imbibe even more alcohol as a way of solving the morning-after headache. The consumer debt would have to be paid back, causing another debt service crunch down the road. That's what the 2004-05 housing bubble (to bail out the NASDAQ bubble crash debt service burden) proved in spades.

Reality says

Corporations hording massive cash for many years is prima facie proof that there
is a lack of productive capital investment opportunity to buy into.

You suck at using latin terms. Prima facie is evidence, not proof. Using prima facie here only means the corporate cash hoards are evidence of lack of productive capital investment opportunity that are worth testing.

The way you used it here, you meant res ipsa loquitur, "it speaks for itself."

tatupu70 says

Sure there can. Jobs goes out and asks people if they'd be willing to buy an iPhone like device at $100. Or $200. Or $300. etc.

No, he did no such thing. The specs for iPhone and all other i products were shrouded in secrecy before release.

The true demand at any price point is never known exactly. It depends on the price of substitute items as well as many, many other factors. I'm not sure what your point is--nobody invests capital without having an idea of the demand for what they are going to make.

An educated guess regarding future demand is not the same as qualified demand in the market place right now.

Reality says

An educated guess regarding future demand is not the same as qualified demand
in the market place right now.

So what? We're not talking about qualified demand in the market today. That can never be quantified so it's pretty much useless. We're talking about demand. Which can easily be estimated about potential future products.

Reality says

No, he did no such thing. The specs for iPhone and all other i products were
shrouded in secrecy before release

lol. I guarantee you that Apple did market research and focus groups. Regardless, the concept that demand can be estimated before a product is released is the point. Companies spend a LOT of money doing just that.

tatupu70 says

So what? We're not talking about qualified demand in the market today. That can never be quantified so it's pretty much useless. We're talking about demand. Which can easily be estimated about potential future products.

Estimation of future existence is not the same as existing now. It can be safely estimated that your dead body will be in a coffin somewhere within the next 100 years; that does not mean it is there now.

Eventus Stultorum Magister.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=ibt

Vaticanus says

The Keynesian way to create demand is to break windows to sell more windows,
destroy cars to sell more cars ( see cash for clunkers),

Vaticanus says

The Austrian way to create demand is to allow people to use their land, their
labor, their resources to produce things the they can trade for other things

Other than this critique of Keynesianism being untrue, please review the link I previously posted and tell me what the graph means.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=ibt

If what you say about Austrians are true, and this is the best method for economic growth, then why does the red line cross the green line? Why does the slope of the blue line and and slope of the green line appear to be correlated?

Personally I prefer the growth in blue over the growth in red. But what do I know?

David1 said;" Personally I prefer the growth in blue over the growth in red. But what do I know?"

Your numbers are an illusion. You must subtract the growing national and household debt from these numbers to have any connection to reality. We are headed for a debt crisis both domestic and international.