patrick.net

Most telling excerpt:

The report said the shadow inventory, which is made up of loans that have been delinquent for at least 90 days, is more than SEVEN TIMES the inventory of REOs that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and HUD currently own.

I guess Reuters has no credibility either ..

robertoaribas says

charlie brown has nothing on you waiting for the great pumpkin!!!

This implies credibility ?

robertoaribas says

if it isn't too much for your abilities

Please go back and insult one of your students. I'm not interested in engaging you:

"Horrible teacher. Sent him multiple e-mails asking for clarification (online class) or about issues in the grading of his tests and responded to only 2 of 11 e-mails. Also never addressed all points of those e-mails. Grades not turned in in a timely manner either."

robertoaribas says

How did waiting the last two years work out for you? You're still here,
hoping for the crash, and you missed it!

Well, I'm sorry you completely screwed up your analysis of the market, and
missed the buying chance of a life time.

robertoaribas says

Well, I'm sorry you completely screwed up your analysis of the market, and
missed the buying chance of a life time.

Debatable here in California, certainly true to some degree. I was looking for a home, wasn't thinking of flipping it in 2012. Does that make me stupid? I did not feel like I was being attacked by the entire post, thanks for that.

robertoaribas says

you dig up derogatory revues by my students

Yes. You are on here 24/7, who is this guy I wondered? It is a free country, I can use Google.

robertoaribas says

I'm also the department chair

Actually, I'm not allowed to disclose on a blog my work details, so I found your 'according to your abilities' comment highly insulting.

robertoaribas says

Don't get your comment

Of course, with exceptions, however, prices did not drop percentage wise here in California as much as they did in Phoenix. 40k for a property that rents for $800 is a no brainer. Lucky you. I am happy for you, really. I only look in Tarzana, Woodland Hills, and Encino, California as I like the area and it is the only current option geographically with work. The cheapest property I looked at was 150k a couple years ago, not exactly the same price to rent ratio, that is what I meant by 'debatable'

While I agree that these numbers probably only reflect a few specific, judicial states, you have to think that the properties banks/agencies aren't foreclosing (because they can't handle the costs of owning the properties yet) must be comparatively substantial. Of course, there’s no way to prove that theory so it’s pointless to argue. Regardless, foreclosed properties will trickle into the market and a majority of them will be bought up by investment firms to rent out. I don’t think there will be a large change in housing prices until investment firms don’t see renting profitable anymore and begin selling off their inventory. Carrington Holding has stopped putting money into rentals but then you have Blackstone which has been approved to invest as much as $2.1 billion into rentals (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/carrington-stops-buying-u-s-rentals-as-blackstone-adding.html). So, even the biggest players have different opinions.

People keep mentioning judicial states, yet ignore the numerous laws that states like California and Nevada have enacted to stall foreclosures. Maybe the stalling can put all homeowners in the black and that shadow inventory will never come. But it is shadow inventory none the less. Banks in judicial states already had the laws to allow them to manipulate the market. Banks in non-judicial states just waited until the politicians created them.....

Funny how somebody gets lucky and catches a manipulated dead cat bounce and thinks they are some kind of investing genius. Anybody who invests based on fundamentals and "analysis of the market" would have NEVER bought two years ago. Only a speculator would have bought. Real investors knew there should be much more downside. Knew that economic fundamentals didn't support prices. Knew that prices should go lower than when the bubble began. Saw how rates were low and deflation was said to be the threat, and how deleveraging of housing hadn't happened yet.... It's like the guy who bought Pets.com after it fell 80% and then saw it double in price. He thought he was so smart. Such an expert investor. Then fundamentals caught up and pets'com went belly up.....

Cheeseus Sonofdog says

Knew that economic fundamentals didn't support prices.

What economic fundamentals are you following that said prices were too high 2 years ago?

robertoaribas says

David9 says

I guess Reuters has no credibility either ..

Care to point out how anything I said was wrong?

I'll take a stab: it was Linus who waited for the Great Pumpkin, not Charlie Brown.