patrick.net

David9 says

I'm glad he is reaching out for information.

Not so sure he's reaching out - his typical MO is to TELL everyone why they are wrong and he is right. Not sure it will be any different in this dog-and-pony show.

I hope job report is good so Fed doesn't print $2 trillions per year.

I only have 2 trees left in my backyard.
Not enough to make paper.

less reason to think the "recovery" can last with interest rates soaring and the fundamentals of the economy not improving-and even conceding the economy is improving, its not improving at the same 80% rate that interest rates since May!

and the ten year is up to 2.89% up from 1.6% in May
up around 80%!!!
do you really think the Re market can sustain that as cash investors exit the market?
Remember many cash investor borrowed the money at low rates and will stop doing so as rates go higher.
Do you think all the millenials with out jobs or with part time jobs and student loan debt are going to fill the void?
The data says other wise as they are buying homes at a lower rate than before.

Welcome to the recovery as Tim Geithner wrote in the summer of 2009

smaulgld says

do you really think

Did anyone think Princess Diana's death was a complete accident?

I see similiarities between the two subjects.

David9 says

smaulgld says

do you really think

Did anyone think Princess Diana's death was a complete accident?

I see similiarities between the two subjects.

Rates were higher at the time of Diana's death
today the 30 year is heading higher though and now stands at 4.75% non FHA 4.62 FHA

Has housing improved from where we were a few years ago, maybe? A round of chemotherapy can also temporarily improve your condition, doesn't mean the cancer has been cured.

robertoaribas says

see you on here, a year from now, when home prices are even higher, and you are even more shrill and disconnected from reality.

What if they're lower?

Goran_K says

robertoaribas says

see you on here, a year from now, when home prices are even higher, and you are even more shrill and disconnected from reality.

What if they're lower?

EGAD!

Repeat from August 2013
Unfortunately too much of the economy and housing market depends on the Fed.
But having said that I'll go with home prices on the national level flat to slightly down YOY in August 2014.
To me what is more important is not home prices but increased sales of homes and higher home ownership rates-that would reflect a true recovery

If you read any of my writings there is a consistent theme:
regarding Housing, the stock market and gold and silver/

Housing-macro economics make it easier to track the direction of prices because even if the Fed's monetary policy is geared towards boosting home prices there is a limit to what people can pay and how many people can pay higher prices.

With a weak job market and tepid wage growth, rising home prices are difficult to sustain in all but a few markets

My prediction last year, that year over year come this year, prices will stop rising was a prediction that I could make with confidence because you can't get water out of a stone.

Stock Market- my writings make clear that with companies buying back their own shares and sovereign funds buying you have the largest participants in the market and they can keep the market afloat even if the fundamentals don't support higher prices.

I have written that it's much easier to pump up (and keep up) a stock market bubble than a real estate bubble. Once people accept sky high valuations in stocks they can continue to rise. Rising stock prices attracts more buyers, but rising home prices repels many.

At some point stock market prices will collapse if they continue to rise with out revenue and earnings growth to justify them.

Gold and Silver-these markets are small and the silver market expecially so and they can be subject to monetary policy, geo political events, large players in the market, such that predicting price moves in the gold and silver markets is harder and indeed the moves in these markets are often counter intuitive.

Any national home price predictions for August 2015?

The fake recovery, like any market distortion that defies all reason, can last far longer than you can stay solvent while shorting it.

HydroCabron says

The fake recovery, like any market distortion that defies all reason, can last far longer than you can stay solvent while shorting it.

The internet bubble lasted five years

smaulgld says

Any national home price predictions for August 2015?

Hard to say. I think it will be more of a 'cooling' than any large scale drop at this stage. Although that could change if institutional investors decide to start listing their inventory. Although in the area that I live in now (Florida), prices hit a peak around August of last year and are now starting to drop.

Diomedes777 says

smaulgld says

Any national home price predictions for August 2015?

Hard to say. I think it will be more of a 'cooling' than any large scale drop at this stage. Although that could change if institutional investors decide to start listing their inventory. Although in the area that I live in now (Florida), prices hit a peak around August of last year and are now starting to drop.

I agree because unlike the last housing price bubble-there have been far fewer homes sold this time around and many are still underwater from the last bubble so inventory will remain relatively tight and any price rise will be met with selling which will push prices back down again.

http://smaulgld.com/real-estates-underwaterdown-side-sticky-catch-22/

Prices would collapse if there was an over all deterioration of the entire economy