patrick.net

Oh and as stated earlier even with that "tight" market, rents are declining.

Oh wait, that hasn't happened in trendy hot downtown LA either. Oh, checked again, yes it has.

Wonder what will happen when the four buildings currently under construction come on line...or with the other four planned buildings.

See...there's that whole thing where rents can't surpass what people make, even in a micromarket. People bitch about SF and NY, but even there rents can't go beyond salaries. Once prices get high enough, people just get roommates or move in with mom and dad, reducing demand, at least at higher prices.

robertoaribas says

dodgerfanjohn says

For contrast, I'm looking in Torrance, CA and to see 30-40 available units at any given time is an absolute flood. And probably many more apartment units than dublin. Pop 147k

40 units in a city of 147,000 would round to zero mathematically.

If you use that as proof of a "flood of inventory" well, whatever. Nice talking to you, I don't waste my time with complete idiots!

Lol there's about 40-50 online comments by people with first hand experience who think you are an idiot. Is that also statistically insignificant?

"i would not recommend this teacher to anyone. i learned more about his Dog and how many motorcycles he owns, and how many sports he plays, and how big his shoe size is( yes he told this to the ladies in class) worst math teacher i have ever had. just because the subject matter is easy in his own mind doesn't mean we get it. absolutely terrible"

Bragging about what you own and are worth. Bragging about shoe size. We get the picture.

Lol.

http://www.ratemyprofessors.com/ShowRatings.jsp?tid=643999

And BTW Ribas,

You may want to take some lessons from one of your coleagues in the English department because I've noticed that your comprehension skills are lacking.

OP was trying to show an over abundance of rentals in his map, ostensibly to demonstrate that rental prices will be declining due to an oversupply. SFace was questioning that the map actually showed that. I used my example as a similiar city with less than half the available rentals where rents are declining. The inference being that in the city OP posted, rents might crumble(assuming all fact sets are accurate).

In other words, in my experience, it's unusual to see 40 or so rentals available in Torrance, CA at any given time on craigslist. So for that area it's a flood. Your interpretation of my statement was incorrect.

dodgerfanjohn says

OP was trying to show an over abundance of rentals in his map, ostensibly to demonstrate that rental prices will be declining due to an oversupply. SFace was questioning that the map actually showed that. I used my example as a similiar city with less than half the available rentals where rents are declining. The inference being that in the city OP posted, rents might crumble(assuming all fact sets are accurate).

It still lacks context. Without knowing how many units each dot represents, it's hard to say how many rentals are actually available. Also, without more data on how many were available at other times, it's impossible to say whether this is a "flood of rentals" or not.

If you want to see the exact count to get more specific you can go to craigslist.org yourself and type in the area

Current it is the highest I have ever seen.

Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore: 592

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=53

San Ramon/Danville: 189

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=52

That is just the landlords that use craiglist. It is not higher by a small amount, in all my checking I have never seen above 300 for Pleasanton/Dublin/Livermore. Do it yourself the next few months and watch the avalanche effect. The best way to see it is to do it yourself.

robertoaribas says

So the fact that you are counting rental listings on craigslist is more of a reflection of what an idiot you are, than of the market.

Always nice to know your opinion. Such a wealth of info. Thanks

robertoaribas says

you posted a list of 50 rentals and 100% of them were spam...

Interesting. I have always had a good experience on craigslist. I have gotten every rental over the last 15 years from them. Didn't have much problem with spam each time. 100% you say, wow, how unlucky you must be. Bad karma perhaps? Just guessing...

robertoaribas says

it is a realtor spamming craigslist to get rental leads!!!

carry on nitwit!!!!!

In this coming market realtors will be trying everything to move dead properties. Especially in the Phoenix flood of rentals that will hit you like a wall. Just wait until next month there golden boy.

robertoaribas says

In fact, I just took the FIRST listing from your "data set" there dipstick...

and I searched for the phone number...

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3977360059.html

So you don't think this first ad is real?

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

In fact, I just took the FIRST listing from your "data set" there dipstick...

and I searched for the phone number...

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3977360059.html

So you don't think this first ad is real?

Plenty of spam when you go to the page before.

SFace says

dodgerfanjohn says

OP was trying to show an over abundance of rentals in his map, ostensibly to

demonstrate that rental prices will be declining due to an oversupply. SFace was

questioning that the map actually showed that

actually no, the map without context shows pathetic supply.

Just did the leg-work for you and gave you the context. Almost 600 rentals! 600! not 30, not 40, not 100. 600! About 100 will move this month and another 300 will be added. I expect 800 or more for the same search next month. Just look at what came on August 9th today! Jeez! Look out below is all I say to any landlord thinking they will actually be cash positive in the SFBA. Maybe if you bought in 1992

That leg-work being Craigslist?

Bigsby says

That leg-work being Craigslist?

Apparently it was more than most people want to do around here.

Hey, there is some good news on your front. Mortgage applications are up!!! Holy crap that is amazing. We must write a whole article saying how good that is. We are out of the wood, everything is great. Invest in housing, it has never been a better time. How much you ask? Ahh, don't worry about that. It is UP! Well, to be honest it is still down 47% from May, but that means nothing, we are UP 0.2% from last week. Break out the party horns! Idiots.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/07/good-news-on-the-mortgage-front.aspx

robertoaribas says

and you wonder why I call you a moron?

A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails...

Ohh, got it. So you were lying about the first ad on the page and the 100% spam. Now the story changes. Carry on.

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

In fact, I just took the FIRST listing from your "data set" there dipstick...

and I searched for the phone number...

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3977360059.html

So you don't think this first ad is real?

Plenty of spam when you go to the page before.

Maybe in your brower the page before is something illegal though. Not in mine. ;)

robertoaribas says

A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails...

Here is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and last ad from the 4th page (ad 400 and up). All spam?

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983095245.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3969858768.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983063078.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3978927200.html

Interesting theory you have.

Same thing on the 3rd page (ad 300, 301, 302, and 399). Spam?

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3986522205.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3986502313.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3986369233.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983095912.html

Wait, the last one is not in Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore. It is in Stockton, so I got you now. 1 out of 8 means 100% spam. Math is hard for me sometime. Sorry

robertoaribas says

that's right, call me a liar when the problem is your too damn stupid to read... way to go!

I just re-read and stand by my statements. Quotes from you.

Golden Boy: "A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails..."

Golden Boy:"craigslist is full of spam"

full equals 1/8 I guess to you.

Golden Boy:"you posted a list of 50 rentals and 100% of them were spam..."

there is that 100%. It was so long ago you might have forgotten

Golden Boy:"In fact, I just took the FIRST listing from your "data set" there dipstick...
and I searched for the phone number..."

I asked you if the first ad was spam, and I guess that made you back-pedal pretty fast.

You make it too easy golden boy.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails...

Here is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and last ad from the 4th page (ad 400 and up). All spam?

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983095245.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3969858768.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983063078.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3978927200.html

Interesting theory you have.

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim? Using Craigslist to make claims about how many rentals there are is moronic no matter how much you want to play silly buggers. And we all know how much you enjoy doing that.

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

So you admit your initial claims were bullshit. I see a pattern in your posts.

robertoaribas says

Many of these are spam, I verified that when the very first ad, the contact phone number was the same for over 100 other ads. that is an agent posting every rental on the mls, to get business.

Complete lie here again. Wow

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

So you admit your initial claims were bullshit. I see a pattern in your posts.

I admit that you are having trouble following.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

So you admit your initial claims were bullshit. I see a pattern in your posts.

I admit that you are having trouble following.

Yes, it's difficult to keep track of all the bullshit you post.

Geebus.

RFHTC is bringing up the topic of "rising rental supply", and the thread has devolved to "loser" "idiot" "liar" dumb ass"

There are literally 10 other threads you can go into to shit on each other.

Can we at least try to discuss whether rental supply is indeed increasing, and whether rents are decreasing in his local area?

Goran_K says

Geebus.

RFHTC is bringing up the topic of "rising rental supply", and the thread has devolved to "loser" "idiot" "liar" dumb ass"

There are literally 10 other threads you can go into to shit on each other.

Can we at least try to discuss whether rental supply is indeed increasing, and whether rents are decreasing in his local area?

Sure, as long as he quits pretending Craigslist is an accurate barometer.

Bigsby says

Goran_K says

Geebus.

RFHTC is bringing up the topic of "rising rental supply", and the thread has devolved to "loser" "idiot" "liar" dumb ass"

There are literally 10 other threads you can go into to shit on each other.

Can we at least try to discuss whether rental supply is indeed increasing, and whether rents are decreasing in his local area?

Sure, as long as he quits pretending Craigslist is an accurate barometer.

Please present your data if you have any. I am presenting what I feel is relevant and all you and Golden Boy can do is attack it without anything to back up your claims. Maybe a good strategy when you run for office in this country, but it doesn't make the grade with me.

robertoaribas says

i didn't backpedal at all, you illiterate lying dumbass. my 100% claim is up above,

At least you finally admit to saying 100%. It is a giant step forward for you. Congrats.

In a little over 4hrs we have gone from 592 to 616!!! This is coming fast folks. Even faster than I thought. Jeez Weez.

Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=53

And for San Ramon/Danville we just shot from 189 to 205!! in 4hrs

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=52

So many rentals out there now with more to come...

robertoaribas says

Many of these are spam

Many as in 3 out of 600? I guess you could be right then. 597/600 is a total bogus point. I mean that is nearly all spam. Especially the ones after the first page right? Maybe my sampling on page 3, and 4 was just complete luck on my account. It could happen. Statistically, it would mean I should go buy a lotto ticket, but it could happen. Go sample a few, maybe you will see that 100% are spam to you.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

And for San Ramon/Danville we just shot from 189 to 205!! in 4hrs

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=52

So many rentals out there now with more to come...

RentingForHalfTheCost says

In a little over 4hrs we have gone from 592 to 616!!! This is coming fast folks. Even faster than I thought. Jeez Weez.

Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore:

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=53

OK. Let's just say for sake of argument that those numbers are accurate. As I do not know those areas nor their population, what would constitute a normal number of rentable properties in those areas?

seeing the stuff that RFHTC has pulled in the past, I wouldn't be surprised if 300 of the craigslist listings are his own fake listings. haha.

Truly the ultimate troll, and I actually say that as a compliment.

Bigsby says

OK. Let's just say for sake of argument that those numbers are accurate. As I do not know those areas nor their population, what would constitute a normal number of rentable properties in those areas?

Not sure about any normal state, as I don't believe there is one in the SFBA. However, my point is that the number of rentals are growing considerably. Lets see what next week brings, and next month. If it stabilizes then all good, if it keep growing 2x each month then boom. The landlord is holding a deuce and seven. Not even suited.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

OK. Let's just say for sake of argument that those numbers are accurate. As I do not know those areas nor their population, what would constitute a normal number of rentable properties in those areas?

Not sure about any normal state, as I don't believe there is one in the SFBA. However, my point is that the number of rentals are growing considerably. Lets see what next week brings, and next month. If it stabilizes then all good, if it keep growing 2x each month then boom. The landlord is holding a deuce and seven. Not even suited.

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

Bigsby says

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

I have never seen the Pleasanton/Dublin/Livermore area have anything higher than 300 rentals from craiglist. Then all of a sudden mid to end of July and now continuing in August things are exploding. I really don't see any problem. You can decide that the data is irrelevant to you, but it means something to me.

robertoaribas says

there were 32 people at the thai restaurant near my house for lunch. Clearly the economy is getting better!

Could be true. If you sampled all the restaurant in the area and had historical data to compare, then you might have something. You seem to be getting sharper.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

I have never seen the Pleasanton/Dublin/Livermore area have anything higher than 300 rentals from craiglist. Then all of a sudden mid to end of July and now continuing in August things are exploding. I really don't see any problem. You can decide that the data is irrelevant to you, but it means something to me.

And right now it mean tens of thousands of dollars in my short on the home builders.