patrick.net

Wow that's insane. I can only hope the area I'm moving to is like that towards the end of the year. Already we've realized we can adjust our rental budget from the range of $1900-2500 down to $1500-2200 with a target of $1800-1900. There's been way more rentals coming on since early July. I'd expect that in late August(school starts second week of September around here) but to have seen it already a month ago was a welcome surprise.

Why are American investors so Goddamn STUPID?

At this rate, a 3 br house with an acre of land will rent for $800 a month, before these fools are through fucking them selves over good.

CaptainShuddup says

Why are American investors so Goddamn STUPID?

At this rate, a 3 br house with an acre of land will rent for $800 a month, before these fools are through fucking them selves over good.

Yup, and will cost 1.5 million to buy. There will be a lineup of fools with cash all fighting over the place as well. Guess it doesn't really matter when the cash is not really yours.

What is that map purporting to show?

Hmm. I agree with JFP, that map needs more context. What is the price range, and other criteria (rooms, sqft, etc) you used to get that result set?

The map shows the current rental inventory from craiglist in the area. I look at it once a week for fun, and it has been increasing lately. The storm is coming... Turn down your backyard umbrellas, bring your pets inside, and make sure you have enough can food in your pantry. It will be a doozy!

CaptainShuddup says

At this rate, a 3 br house with an acre of land will rent for $800 a month

That's what it should rent for....

RentingForHalfTheCost says

The map shows the current rental inventory from craiglist in the area. I look at it once a week for fun, and it has been increasing each day this week. The storm is coming... Turn down your backyard umbrellas, bring your pets inside, and make sure you have enough can food in your pantry. It will be a doozy!

Hmm interesting. I've seen the same thing in Irvine, and other cities in OC.

SFace says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

The map shows the current rental inventory from craiglist in the area. I look

at it once a week for fun, and it has been increasing lately. The storm is

coming... Turn down your backyard umbrellas, bring your pets inside, and make

sure you have enough can food in your pantry. It will be a doozy!

The map is basically Dublin.Pleasanton which is home to 120K people. There is about 100 dots there.

Please provide a little more context when trying to make a point. If anything the supply looks pathetic.

Always count on the home owners to ignore facts and hope that aging wood and nails will keep appreciating. Thanks for the laugh.

For kicks you can check out the number of for sales in the area today. What is amazing to me, is the number of open houses. It used to just be a few, now every 2nd house on the market has an open house on the weekends. Sellers are actually being smart, they know this window is about to close.

http://www.redfin.com/homes-for-sale#!disp_mode=M&lat=37.67616024848455&long=-121.91024312228478&market=sanfrancisco&num_beds=3&sf=1,2&v=8&zoomLevel=12

For those looking to rent, I would recommend https://www.padmapper.com/. I'm guessing this is what the OP used. You can set criteria - price, bedrooms and bathrooms.

rooemoore says

For those looking to rent, I would recommend https://www.padmapper.com/. I'm guessing this is what the OP used. You can set criteria - price, bedrooms and bathrooms.

Yes, that was the site used to get the picture.

SFace says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

The map shows the current rental inventory from craiglist in the area. I look

at it once a week for fun, and it has been increasing lately. The storm is

coming... Turn down your backyard umbrellas, bring your pets inside, and make

sure you have enough can food in your pantry. It will be a doozy!

The map is basically Dublin.Pleasanton which is home to 120K people. There is about 100 dots there.

Please provide a little more context when trying to make a point. If anything the supply looks pathetic.

Isn't that area primarily townhomes and SFR? If so, that would be a sick number of rentals, even in an area of 120k people.

The most equivalent area of LA that's like tht is Simi Valley...appx same population, 1 hour train ride to downtown, 1hr, 30 min commute at rush hour to westside, middle class with some 80's build and lots of build in the past 15 years, safe with good schools.

Because its mostly SFR, Simi Valley rents are comparable to Burbank...a much closer in city with similiar attributes. In Burbank, I'd estimate home prices to be 30-50% higher than in Simi Valley, but yet rents are the same. This is because there are few rentals in Simi Valley due to the nature of the build, while Burbank has a ton of apartments.

One bedroom apt in Burbank is around $1100-1600, one bedroom apt in Simi is $1300-1600.

I presume Dublin is the same way due to lack of apartments. So to me 100 units for rent in a town like that seems to be quite large

For contrast, I'm looking in Torrance, CA and to see 30-40 available units at any given time is an absolute flood. And probably many more apartment units than dublin. Pop 147k

Oh and as stated earlier even with that "tight" market, rents are declining.

Oh wait, that hasn't happened in trendy hot downtown LA either. Oh, checked again, yes it has.

Wonder what will happen when the four buildings currently under construction come on line...or with the other four planned buildings.

See...there's that whole thing where rents can't surpass what people make, even in a micromarket. People bitch about SF and NY, but even there rents can't go beyond salaries. Once prices get high enough, people just get roommates or move in with mom and dad, reducing demand, at least at higher prices.

robertoaribas says

dodgerfanjohn says

For contrast, I'm looking in Torrance, CA and to see 30-40 available units at any given time is an absolute flood. And probably many more apartment units than dublin. Pop 147k

40 units in a city of 147,000 would round to zero mathematically.

If you use that as proof of a "flood of inventory" well, whatever. Nice talking to you, I don't waste my time with complete idiots!

Lol there's about 40-50 online comments by people with first hand experience who think you are an idiot. Is that also statistically insignificant?

"i would not recommend this teacher to anyone. i learned more about his Dog and how many motorcycles he owns, and how many sports he plays, and how big his shoe size is( yes he told this to the ladies in class) worst math teacher i have ever had. just because the subject matter is easy in his own mind doesn't mean we get it. absolutely terrible"

Bragging about what you own and are worth. Bragging about shoe size. We get the picture.

Lol.

http://www.ratemyprofessors.com/ShowRatings.jsp?tid=643999

And BTW Ribas,

You may want to take some lessons from one of your coleagues in the English department because I've noticed that your comprehension skills are lacking.

OP was trying to show an over abundance of rentals in his map, ostensibly to demonstrate that rental prices will be declining due to an oversupply. SFace was questioning that the map actually showed that. I used my example as a similiar city with less than half the available rentals where rents are declining. The inference being that in the city OP posted, rents might crumble(assuming all fact sets are accurate).

In other words, in my experience, it's unusual to see 40 or so rentals available in Torrance, CA at any given time on craigslist. So for that area it's a flood. Your interpretation of my statement was incorrect.

dodgerfanjohn says

OP was trying to show an over abundance of rentals in his map, ostensibly to demonstrate that rental prices will be declining due to an oversupply. SFace was questioning that the map actually showed that. I used my example as a similiar city with less than half the available rentals where rents are declining. The inference being that in the city OP posted, rents might crumble(assuming all fact sets are accurate).

It still lacks context. Without knowing how many units each dot represents, it's hard to say how many rentals are actually available. Also, without more data on how many were available at other times, it's impossible to say whether this is a "flood of rentals" or not.

If you want to see the exact count to get more specific you can go to craigslist.org yourself and type in the area

Current it is the highest I have ever seen.

Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore: 592

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=53

San Ramon/Danville: 189

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=52

That is just the landlords that use craiglist. It is not higher by a small amount, in all my checking I have never seen above 300 for Pleasanton/Dublin/Livermore. Do it yourself the next few months and watch the avalanche effect. The best way to see it is to do it yourself.

robertoaribas says

So the fact that you are counting rental listings on craigslist is more of a reflection of what an idiot you are, than of the market.

Always nice to know your opinion. Such a wealth of info. Thanks

robertoaribas says

you posted a list of 50 rentals and 100% of them were spam...

Interesting. I have always had a good experience on craigslist. I have gotten every rental over the last 15 years from them. Didn't have much problem with spam each time. 100% you say, wow, how unlucky you must be. Bad karma perhaps? Just guessing...

robertoaribas says

it is a realtor spamming craigslist to get rental leads!!!

carry on nitwit!!!!!

In this coming market realtors will be trying everything to move dead properties. Especially in the Phoenix flood of rentals that will hit you like a wall. Just wait until next month there golden boy.

robertoaribas says

In fact, I just took the FIRST listing from your "data set" there dipstick...

and I searched for the phone number...

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3977360059.html

So you don't think this first ad is real?

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

In fact, I just took the FIRST listing from your "data set" there dipstick...

and I searched for the phone number...

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3977360059.html

So you don't think this first ad is real?

Plenty of spam when you go to the page before.

SFace says

dodgerfanjohn says

OP was trying to show an over abundance of rentals in his map, ostensibly to

demonstrate that rental prices will be declining due to an oversupply. SFace was

questioning that the map actually showed that

actually no, the map without context shows pathetic supply.

Just did the leg-work for you and gave you the context. Almost 600 rentals! 600! not 30, not 40, not 100. 600! About 100 will move this month and another 300 will be added. I expect 800 or more for the same search next month. Just look at what came on August 9th today! Jeez! Look out below is all I say to any landlord thinking they will actually be cash positive in the SFBA. Maybe if you bought in 1992

That leg-work being Craigslist?

Bigsby says

That leg-work being Craigslist?

Apparently it was more than most people want to do around here.

Hey, there is some good news on your front. Mortgage applications are up!!! Holy crap that is amazing. We must write a whole article saying how good that is. We are out of the wood, everything is great. Invest in housing, it has never been a better time. How much you ask? Ahh, don't worry about that. It is UP! Well, to be honest it is still down 47% from May, but that means nothing, we are UP 0.2% from last week. Break out the party horns! Idiots.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/07/good-news-on-the-mortgage-front.aspx

robertoaribas says

and you wonder why I call you a moron?

A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails...

Ohh, got it. So you were lying about the first ad on the page and the 100% spam. Now the story changes. Carry on.

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

In fact, I just took the FIRST listing from your "data set" there dipstick...

and I searched for the phone number...

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3977360059.html

So you don't think this first ad is real?

Plenty of spam when you go to the page before.

Maybe in your brower the page before is something illegal though. Not in mine. ;)

robertoaribas says

A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails...

Here is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and last ad from the 4th page (ad 400 and up). All spam?

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983095245.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3969858768.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983063078.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3978927200.html

Interesting theory you have.

Same thing on the 3rd page (ad 300, 301, 302, and 399). Spam?

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3986522205.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3986502313.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3986369233.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983095912.html

Wait, the last one is not in Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore. It is in Stockton, so I got you now. 1 out of 8 means 100% spam. Math is hard for me sometime. Sorry

robertoaribas says

that's right, call me a liar when the problem is your too damn stupid to read... way to go!

I just re-read and stand by my statements. Quotes from you.

Golden Boy: "A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails..."

Golden Boy:"craigslist is full of spam"

full equals 1/8 I guess to you.

Golden Boy:"you posted a list of 50 rentals and 100% of them were spam..."

there is that 100%. It was so long ago you might have forgotten

Golden Boy:"In fact, I just took the FIRST listing from your "data set" there dipstick...
and I searched for the phone number..."

I asked you if the first ad was spam, and I guess that made you back-pedal pretty fast.

You make it too easy golden boy.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails...

Here is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and last ad from the 4th page (ad 400 and up). All spam?

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983095245.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3969858768.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983063078.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3978927200.html

Interesting theory you have.

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim? Using Craigslist to make claims about how many rentals there are is moronic no matter how much you want to play silly buggers. And we all know how much you enjoy doing that.

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

So you admit your initial claims were bullshit. I see a pattern in your posts.

robertoaribas says

Many of these are spam, I verified that when the very first ad, the contact phone number was the same for over 100 other ads. that is an agent posting every rental on the mls, to get business.

Complete lie here again. Wow

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

So you admit your initial claims were bullshit. I see a pattern in your posts.

I admit that you are having trouble following.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

So you admit your initial claims were bullshit. I see a pattern in your posts.

I admit that you are having trouble following.

Yes, it's difficult to keep track of all the bullshit you post.