patrick.net

lovelafayette says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

lovelafayette says

So does this mean that your house that you live in and pay 3k in rent is only worth $650,000 instead of 1.3 mil. I guess you were only off by 50%

Only a comment that can come from someone over extended in real estate. Good luck to you digging yourself out of 30 years of debt all for an ageing pile of wood and nails.

So is your house still worth 1.3 million? How much has it dropped in this housing bear market that we are in?

Recently appraised at 1.25m. We are just at the entrance to the bear market, which is my point. Everyone around here has a great ability to predict the past, and also back it up with fancy graphs. I am in the market of estimating the future and benefiting from it. One we should all pay attention to and not be consumed with what has happened yesterday.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Recently appraised at 1.25m.

You had the house you are renting appraised?

I've made this point before, but its worth repeating.. when leverage in the market is high, then its all about managing the sentiment.. when the sentiment turns or stalls, then prices will reflect very quickly.... Wall Street knows this which is why they are pumping housing all the while they are shorting it..

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Recently appraised at 1.25m.

You had the house you are renting appraised?

Yes, the landlord is after me to buy it. He is retired and living elsewhere and would love to sell it to me and not go through the hassle of a realtor/mls. I pretty much knew my answer, but we split the cost of an appraisal as a negotiation starting point. Well, it about ended there. The agreement between us now is he will sell when I am ready to leave. If I didn't have my own interests at heart I would tell him to sell now FCOL. ;)

RentingForHalfTheCost says

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Recently appraised at 1.25m.

You had the house you are renting appraised?

Yes, the landlord is after me to buy it. He is retired and living elsewhere and would love to sell it to me and not go through the hassle of a realtor/mls. I pretty much knew my answer, but we split the cost of an appraisal as a negotiation starting point. Well, it about ended there. The agreement between us now is he will sell when I am ready to leave. If I didn't have my own interests at heart I would tell him to sell now FCOL. ;)

What's that smell?

Bigsby says

What's that smell?

Time for a shower there fella? I can see the neglect even in your words. ;)

RentingForHalfTheCost says

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Recently appraised at 1.25m.

You had the house you are renting appraised?

Yes, the landlord is after me to buy it. He is retired and living elsewhere and would love to sell it to me and not go through the hassle of a realtor/mls. I pretty much knew my answer, but we split the cost of an appraisal as a negotiation starting point. Well, it about ended there. The agreement between us now is he will sell when I am ready to leave. If I didn't have my own interests at heart I would tell him to sell now FCOL. ;)

Care to explain why this house is listed for half of what your house appraised for when they have the same square footage?

Schools, neighborhood, lot size nearly .25 acres, everything updated, gunnite pool/spa, custom BBQ, 50k of pristine landscaping, etc, etc.

It is actually a real house, custom built, and not the usual cottages around here.

Btw, there is a vacant lot in my area that is 900k . It is not even as nice as the lot my rental house is on. 1.25m makes sense comparing it to the lot. All crazy talk to me. I'm a buyer at 750k tops, or 3k/mth rent wins.

You would have to be blind to not see the softening in the current market. Call it "seasonal", FED tapering, magic beans, whatever.

But it can't be denied that:

- Inventory bottomed in most metros about 2-3 months ago.
- Rates are heading towards 5% (6% if you're using FHA)
- Investor participation has gone nearly to ZERO since July.
- Purchase Mortgage Applications have begun to slide again.

kmo722 says

That's because he too is concerned with market sentiment and figures he will use PatNet to defend it..

He's also got an entire thread that could pretty much make him quit this forum out of shame on the front page. Unless he wants to wade through the embarrassment of being a total asshole who got it wrong. I wouldn't put it beneath him, he's done it before.

So there's a lot riding on him defending his predictions at all cost (even being a liar face).

Yes, I've heard your "seasonal" explanation about a thousand times. BTW where's tatupu70 to reinforce it?

The best part about this is, we'll find out fairly soon whether you're right or wrong in the next 12-18 months. So sit tight, and enjoy the show.

The most vocal people on Pat.net? You have nearly 14,000 post buddy. Most of us wouldn't reach that for another 5-10 years.

Goran_K says

Yes, I've heard your "seasonal" explanation about a thousand times. BTW
where's tatupu70 to reinforce it?

Thanks for asking! I'm here. But you supposedly have me on ignore, so I don't feel the need to respond to your inane posts...

Goran_K says

Really? Do they go on 5+ year downward trends too?

Not sure what you're talking about. What's been on a 5 year downward trend?? Mortgage applications certainly haven't. The purchase index been slightly risisng since mid-2010.

http://ycharts.com/indicators/existing_home_sales/chart/#/?series=type:indicator,id:existing_home_sales,,&format=real&recessions=false&zoom=10&startDate=&endDate=&chartView=

Jeez you guys, Getalife!

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Enough said.

Exactly.

I expect to see 4.75% at Wells, BofA, Chase, any of the big box banks.

Over the conforming limit?
Haven't had 3-5 years of provable W2 income?
Any spotty credit history (short sale, missed CC payments, etc)?

You can add another half point easily.

Goran_K says

But But But. The 3.31% is using money from the east coast of the country and the 4.58% is using money from the west coast. You are comparing apples to apples and that is just not a fair comparison. Hence you are a troll. You also are envious of all my patrick-based friends, even though they are mostly my drug dealing renters in the dungeons of Concord. They are still friends though.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

We made it! And they are. Silly duck

Really? Please show me on the chart that your alter-ego posted where the rate hits 6%

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

We made it! And they are. Silly duck

Really? Please show me on the chart that your alter-ego posted where the rate hits 6%/

Oh, it has to be in chart form for you to understand? Having troubling following again I see.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Oh, it has to be in chart form for you to understand? Having troubling
following again I see.

Nope, just pointing out how inconsistent you two seem to be...

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Oh, it has to be in chart form for you to understand? Having troubling

following again I see.

Nope, just pointing out how inconsistent you two seem to be...

Please be a little clearer then. Are you saying that no where in this thread did I say rates over 6% for a 30yr FHA loan? Before you answer, please scroll up and check. Many then you will see your own inconsistencies.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Please be a little clearer then. Are you saying that no where in this thread
did I say rates over 6% for a 30yr FHA loan? Before you answer, please scroll up
and check. Many then you will see your own inconsistencies.

Again, nope. The graph Goran presented is INTEREST RATE. Which is what most everyone means when they refer to "rate". You, however, chose to quote APR and calll that the "rate".

Which is it? Interest rate, or APR?

tatupu70 says

You, however, chose to quote APR and calll that the "rate".

That is where you are wrong. I quoted APR and supplied a link to the APR table. Above 6% for FHA is the new norm.

The storm is brewing folks. A few 50% drops month after month after month and boom, many will realize we never really left the crisis to begin with. We are still in it, just put a big thick layer of lipstick on it.

http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/dailybriefing/FHA-Loan-Applications-Plummet-June-1038260-1.html?source=Patrick.net&site=default_on

tatupu70 says

You, however, chose to quote APR and calll that the "rate".

Do you even know what APR stands for? Hint the R stands for something close to, or wait I mean exactly "rate". Let me check the letters to make sure r=r, a=a, t=t, e=e. I'm am not as sharp as when I did my PhD in math, but I think that means a match.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Do you even know what APR stands for? Hint the R stands for something close
to, or wait I mean exactly "rate". Let me check the letters to make sure r=r,
a=a, t=t, e=e. I'm am not as sharp as when I did my PhD in math, but I think
that means a match.

lol. There are a lot of different rates out there. The point is that when most people talk of mortgage rate, they refer to the interest rate--NOT the APR. I'm pretty sure you understand this....

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Do you even know what APR stands for? Hint the R stands for something close

to, or wait I mean exactly "rate". Let me check the letters to make sure r=r,

a=a, t=t, e=e. I'm am not as sharp as when I did my PhD in math, but I think

that means a match.

lol. There are a lot of different rates out there. The point is that when most people talk of mortgage rate, they refer to the interest rate--NOT the APR. I'm pretty sure you understand this....

I actually am always interested in the APR, couldn't care less about just the interest rate part of the equation. Kinda like leasing the car, but paying for the tires up front. Don't play gimmics with me to make it appear cheaper, give me the full lease cost (or APR). I understand that people need to push costs out to points so they qualify, but in the SFBA magical world, if you don't qualify for the McMansion prices (but get a sugar shack) then you should not be in the market. 50% of the players are all cash here baby. Make it, or leave seems to be the motto around here.

APR is the most accurate measure of the cost of the loan as it accounts for fees as well as rate. Fixed and variable.

FHA is basically subprime with the 1.75% upfront fee and up to 1.35% insurance locked in much longer than in the past. It is worst than before. So yes, FHA will dry up. Do yourself a favor and skip FHA. Anyone with a brain will use a bridge loan instead.

Prime rates are around 4.75%-5% APR. realistically, more households will opt for 5-10 years fixed with APR around 3.25%-4.25%.

SFace says

Prime rates are around 4.75%-5% APR. realistically, more households will opt for 5-10 years fixed with APR around 3.25%-4.25%.

Most 30 year fixed mortgages in CA will be over 5% because of the conforming limit. I've anecdotally have seen 5.25, and 5.5 from associates with really good income and over 20% down. For prime rates of 4.75 to 5.00, you have to be squeaky clean; 5 years of proven W2 income (forget self employed people), and no credit blotches to speak of.

6% is realistically only months away if the FED taper goes through as expected. Rates are spiking pretty drastically over the past 3 months:

5-10 year FIXED is actually very rare. Historically, less than 10% of people financing a home opt for the shorter term loans.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

How about the reality then

The reality is that rising interest rates and falling home prices have not been correlated in the past.

control point says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

How about the reality then

The reality is that rising interest rates and falling home prices have not been correlated in the past.

The past is no place to look at to predict the future. No where in the past have we been in this deep a shit-hole. That is my opinion and you are welcome to yours also. We will be making new ground coming out of this hole. Only the fat-cats are going to be protected. Regular mom/pop home owners could lose big.

I'm calling everyone out - you're all on notice!

This news item proves it: you're idiots. But you won't respond to this thread because - surprise, surprise! - you're cowards, too.

Stupid idiot coward slimes, the whole lot of you...

Come get some, bitches!

control point says

The reality is that rising interest rates and falling home prices have not been correlated in the past.

When has this current market reality ever occurred in the past?

Goran_K says

When has this current market reality ever occurred in the past?

The prime rate bottomed in Jan 1972 at 4.75%. It rose to 15.25% by then end of 1979. The prime rate is currently 3.25% and is likely headed higher.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/PRIME.txt

Unemployment peaked around 9% in 1975 and fell to 6% in 1979. Fell by 3% in 4 years. Unemployment peaked at 10% in 2009 and is currently 7.4%. Fell 2.6% in 4 years.

Inflation adjusted oil prices peaked at $115 in 1979. Oil prices are currently $107.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Chart.asp

Real GDP growth in the 1970s averaged 3.3%. Current GDP growth is 1.7%.

S&P 500 returned 10.5% annually the last 4 years of the 1970s. S&P 500 has returned 12.4% annually the last 4 years.

Median home prices appreciated 65% the last 5 yeaars of the 1970s. Case shiller has appreciated 10% in the past year and 5.4% since March 2009.

So they questions is: what happened in the 5 years after 1979 to home prices? Up 23%. What happened to interest rates, 1980-1984? Went up 1980-1982, then down 1982 to 1984. Finished right where they started.

Interest rates do not increase in a vacuum. They increase due to increased demand vs. supply of loans. If demand for housing falls, demand for loans fall. Supply of loans would have to decrease MORE than the demand falls in order for rates to rise.

Interest rates of term 1 year or less are either down or flat this year. 2 year rates are up slightly, it is not until you look at 3 year and longer that you notice increase in rates. This means the market is pricing a flat ratio of demand/supply of loans for the next two years. The yield curve is the steepest from the 3 to 5 year. The market expects inflation in 3 to 5 years - here is the current expectation of where the peak in the current recovery will be.

So, where does the FED fit in your theory?

There was nothing that came close to this type of intervention in the 70s and 80s. It's unprecedented.

Bigsby says

Actually, I'll do it for you:

http://patrick.net/?p=1227582

Thanks for making my point. Awesome.

Guess you missed this post a while ago now.

"And down we go. Down down down. I have no idea where the bottom will be on this. Into a sinking abyss nonetheless. I'll sell my short position when it goes under 10. Already playing with the houses money. Pun intended!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DHI&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m50%2Cm200&a=&c=
"

rufita11 says

Q: Why do ducks, have webbed feet?

A: To stomp out forest fires.
Q: Why do elephants have flat feet?

egads101 says

rufita11 says

Q: Why do elephants have flat feet?

A: To stop out burning housing doomers!

Maybe if everyone stays quiet the crisis will go away. Yah, that'll work just great. Down we go...

rufita11 says

rufita11 says

Q: Why do ducks, have webbed feet?

A: To stomp out forest fires.

Q: Why do elephants have flat feet?

A: To stomp out burning ducks!

Bigsby says

In the quote above you say you'll do it below $10. OK....

Guess you can't understand what it means to play with the houses money. In order to get to that point you have to have sold and recouped the initial investment, which I have already done. That was the drop from 27 to 21. The 21 to 10 is just gravy, benefited from all the card reading, house appreciating hoping fools on here. Thanks guys! If it wasn't for you this play wouldn't have half as valuable. Keep pumping!