patrick.net

Not sure if that is a correct assumption.

For example 2013 Housing Predictions

"1. Home Prices will rise 2-5%. As long as the inventory of homes stays very low, home prices will rise."

http://loganmohtashami.com/2012/12/31/2013-housing-prediction/

I track inventory closely and as long as inventory is this low home prices have the capacity to rise, especially when conventional sales are rising and distress sales are decreasing.

There was no math for 2013 for inventory to come back to even a balance 6 month on sale level. Too many homes underwater, distress homes taking way to long to get to market and home construction total starts wasn't even going to come close to the 50 year average of 1.5 million. Tomorrow estimates are coming in around 915K

I don't believe I am conflicted. I just don't believe in the thesis that a low inventory price rise due to the hangover from the housing bubble, cash buyer and low rates is the best measure of a true capacity recovery. If we had a 85% mortgage buyer profile then you can make the case that at least the buyer profile is favorable. However, it's year 5 now and we are still pushing 30% cash buyers

http://loganmohtashami.com/2013/02/27/housing-inventory-hangover-will-continue-in-2013/

However.....

As long as inventory is this low below 6 months on sale inventory prices have the capacity to rise.

I have been tracking local "Neighborhood" market prices and for the first time here in So Cal I have confirmation of price declines.

For example. My next door neighbor just sold his home. Model Match sold in April for $490,000. It had good traffic and 3 offers.

His home had a price reduction 10 days into the listing and finally sold at $475,000. It might not seem like much but keeping a eye on other similar cases.

However, we are still below 6 month on sale inventory, that favors price rise, but I do believe 100% 2013 was the peak YOY in appreciation % We should have more inventory in 2014 but we still have more delinquent loans that home for sales in the U.S.

2014 should be a better a year for inventory but not a 2013 story.

http://loganmohtashami.com/2013/02/27/housing-inventory-hangover-will-continue-in-2013/

egads101 says

Logan Mohtashami says

but I do believe 100% 2013 was the peak YOY in appreciation % We should have more inventory in 2014 but we still have more delinquent loans that home for sales in the U.S.

2014 should be a better a year for inventory but not a 2013 story.

the oracle agrees. The oracle is expecting 5 to 10% gains in phoenix next year, compared to last year's 24% gain.

still, very respectable gains, and not very good for the pure bears on here.

Well there's always 2016...