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Peter Schiff Was Right Part Deux: The Taper Edition


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2013 Sep 25, 12:49pm   38,815 views  155 comments

by mell   ➕follow (9)   💰tip   ignore  

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-25/peter-schiff-was-right-part-deux-%E2%80%9Ctaper%E2%80%9D-edition

It consists of various clips of Mr. Schiff being prescient about the financial condition of the U.S., as talking heads on various financial shows mock him and laugh in his face. Well, the Peter Schiff Was Right Video Part Deux is now out and I expect this one to go viral as well.

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107   freak80   2013 Sep 28, 5:20am  

We don't have hyperinflation. Or even bad inflation. Oil is still about $100. Natural gas prices have tanked. A loaf of bread is still about $2.50. A mcdonalds double-cheeseburger is still about $1.25. A typical McDonald's value meal is still about $6. A nice new car about $20-25k. Even the worst drought in recent history hasn't affected food prices that much. Where's the big inflation?

Sure, our third-world health care racket keeps getting more and more expensive, no doubt. But that's not the fault of the Fed.

108   mell   2013 Sep 28, 5:43am  

freak80 says

We don't have hyperinflation.

Agreed.

freak80 says

Or even bad inflation

Disagreed. I'd give it a range anywhere between 3% (if you're lucky) and 10% (if you're unlucky), and even 3% p.a. is brutal AKA bad. A family with a combined income of 100K at 20 needs to have a combined income of 250K at 50 just to keep track with 3% p.a. inflation - let alone the need for building money for retirement. There are very few job categories that let you have the possibility (if you excel) of such a trajectory (luckily tech is one), but for most areas that sort of wage increase is simply not possible.

109   freak80   2013 Sep 28, 6:17am  

Where do you get the figure of 3% to 10%? 3% isn't too bad...if I'm not mistaken, 3% is the fed's target rate. 10% is very bad.

One must use a "basket of goods" to measure overall inflation since the price of a single commodity can fluctuate wildly.

Example: beef has gone up quite a bit. Other meats have not.

110   mell   2013 Sep 28, 6:22am  

freak80 says

Where do you get the figure of 3% to 10%? 3% isn't too bad...if I'm not mistaken, 3% is the fed's target rate. 10% is very bad.

My own calculations and and the EPI:

https://www.aier.org/article/7557-epi-reflects-basic-economic-change

I think the Fed's target rate is 2%, but I am not sure. I'd say that's not bad if most incomes rise more or less in lockstep, but personally I'd prefer 0.5%-1% max. and even period of similarly small deflation are fine.

111   freak80   2013 Sep 28, 7:21am  

Mell,

There's no question that oil prices have skyrocketed in the last 10 years. And yes, that's hurt everyone. And the price has been volatile...both supply and demand are very inelastic. Thank you, China & India. That's not the fault of the federal reserve, right?

That's why I don't buy the whole "fed is causing serious inflation right now" idea.

Sure, the whole business of "printing money" seems shady to me, as it probably does to most regular people. After all, if you or I were to print money, we'd go to jail. Nonetheless, the facts don't support the claim that the fed is causing serious inflation now.

112   freak80   2013 Sep 28, 11:10am  

No one is claiming there has been no inflation since 1912. That's a straw man.

Peter Schiff was obviously wrong. There has been no collapse of the dollar or hyperinflation. Even if inflation were at 10% (it isn't), that's hardly a "collapse" or "hyperinflation."

Do I hate the tbtf banks? Absolutely. They should have been broken up and/or nationalized, with CEOs forced to give up their positions and bonuses. An "epic fail" should not be rewarded.

But that doesn't mean we're headed for doomsday. Peter Schiff was wrong, and anyone who put their 401k into gold and silver fearing Armageddon is possibly sitting on a very painful loss.

113   upisdown   2013 Sep 28, 2:02pm  

Call it Crazy says

It's funny how you are such an "expert" in a area you don't live in...
amazing...

LOL, so just HOW MANY Egg Harbors are there then in NJ??
Not LITTLE Egg Harbor, not Great egg Harbor, Not some variation of an Egg Harbor Township.............................................JUST EGG HARBOR??

And while you're at it, feel free to expound upon your claim that"huge sections of the county don't have nat gas nearby", and WHY.

114   upisdown   2013 Sep 28, 2:16pm  

Call it Crazy says

Hmmm, it's probably a brain fart on your part, but as a FYI, you were having
the Egg Harbor fight with Bob, Not me....

He(you) somehow had the need to give some BS geography lesson, and when I responded to his nonsensical shit, you respond. Ah, how cute, and weird.

And yet you haven't explained at all your claims of the lack of nat gas. availiblity/access, have you? And no, I'm not surprised either.

Are you afraid that you'll totally embarrass yourself because none of the facts to support your assertions aren't readily available from wikipedia? I think that's THE major reason for your vagueness and constant attempts to change the subject, and then the ensuing routine of splitting hairs or arguing endlessly about how wet water is. But you're a computer geek and apparently believe that the internet will somehow make you smarter, or at least provide the info to fill in the numerous gaps of facts and real world knowledge that you lack.

115   upisdown   2013 Sep 28, 2:19pm  

Call it Crazy says

Hmmm... maybe because I can see the big white propane tanks on their
yards..... I think that's a dead give-away that there's no natural gas going to
the house...

Just like I thought, no reasonable answer. Shit, you're too f-n lazy to even make a lame-ass one up.

116   upisdown   2013 Sep 28, 2:41pm  

Call it Crazy says

Wow, delusional much??? Bob was schooling you on local Egg Harbor geography,
not me.... It's nice that your such the local expert on this area of NJ... (or
you just think so)....

LOL, schooling? More like a circle-jerk of pointless, and useless info that made him actually look dumber, than smarter.

And yet after my response to him, you reply.

Not him, YOU. Like I said before, weird.

And you still haven't backed up any of your claims about availability/access of nat gas.
You have no idea at all do you, and your constant evasion of the issue confirms it, just like I thought.

And now you deleted your post, how pathetic.

117   upisdown   2013 Sep 28, 2:47pm  

Call it Crazy says

Here, I'll help you since you REALLY have problems understanding written
words.... Maybe going back to 2nd grade and using pictures will help you...

The computer geek can paste pictures and put captions on them, but can't explain or back up his BS claims. Shocker. LOL.

And apparently delete any embarrassing posts too. Loser.

At least you know that you know nothing about the claims that you made and you are at least smart enough to not let yourself get cornered by posting anything that is easily refuted, and embarrassing for you. I'll give you that much.

118   Bellingham Bill   2013 Sep 28, 3:27pm  

indigenous says

even if you tax the 1% at 100%

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=mSh

blue is after-tax corporate profits

red is the annual federal deficit

just sayin'

119   Bellingham Bill   2013 Sep 28, 3:30pm  

freak80 says

Nonetheless, the facts don't support the claim that the fed is causing serious inflation now

They're preventing serious deflation, which is the same thing to people sitting on shitloads of money.

121   smaulgld   2013 Sep 28, 6:12pm  

freak80 says

Mell,

There's no question that oil prices have skyrocketed in the last 10 years. And yes, that's hurt everyone. And the price has been volatile...both supply and demand are very inelastic. Thank you, China & India. That's not the fault of the federal reserve, right?

That's why I don't buy the whole "fed is causing serious inflation right now" idea.

Sure, the whole business of "printing money" seems shady to me, as it probably does to most regular people. After all, if you or I were to print money, we'd go to jail. Nonetheless, the facts don't support the claim that the fed is causing serious inflation now.

The Fed is causing inflation in the classical sense as defined as an increase in the supply of money and credit.
Without the fed's intervention with three trillion of Qe we would have already had a massive deflationary depression as companies failed, demand dropped and unemployment rose. During this period the economy would have restructured as mal investment would have been liquidated and entities would have been allowed to fail.

The fed is fighting valiantly against deflation as they are trying to create 2pct price inflation by stimulating demand in an economy where naturally without Qe it would be lower

By

122   smaulgld   2013 Sep 28, 6:16pm  

Call it Crazy says

upisdown says

And while you're at it, feel free to expound upon your claim that"huge sections of the county don't have nat gas nearby", and WHY,

Hmmm... maybe because I can see the big white propane tanks on their yards..... I think that's a dead give-away that there's no natural gas going to the house...

But, I could just be guessing....

Bellingham Bill says

freak80 says

Nonetheless, the facts don't support the claim that the fed is causing serious inflation now

They're preventing serious deflation, which is the same thing to people sitting on shitloads of money.

Correct bob
See my duplicative post below

123   theoakman   2013 Sep 28, 11:42pm  

upisdown says

You're really are a pathetic individual. So to you, there's ??/who knows how many Egg Harbors in NJ, but to the rest of us sane and rational people, there's only one TOWN

Egg Harbor and Little Egg Harbor are completely different towns. In fact, there's probably 3 or 4 towns in between the two.

This goes on a lot in NJ. There is Freehold and Upper Freehold, both separated by Millstone.

There is North Brunswick, South Brunswick, East Brunswick, and New Brunswick. All completely different towns that border each other.

And yes, a lot of people in those areas have no natural gas line into their home. It's not uncommon for the main part of town to have water, sewer and natural gas lines while the outskirts and older roads have septic, well, and no gas line. Some of them still have oil heat while others get Natural Gas delivery.

124   mell   2013 Sep 29, 1:57am  

indigenous says

Your graph indicates about 18% profit. Notice it skyrockets since uncle ben et al have been baling out the mutts that should be on their ass.

Bingo!

125   theoakman   2013 Sep 29, 9:39am  

Call it Crazy says

oil

Yeah, I'm not sure why, but the areas with people still on oil heat are filled with weird people. It's incredibly expensive, and they get delivery all the time. And when the oil tank goes down, they install a new one instead of converting.

126   freak80   2013 Sep 29, 10:09am  

Buy gold and guns! Hyperinflation is coming!

127   Bubbabeefcake   2013 Sep 29, 10:23am  

LOL ! Over 2000 views and 300+ comments but yet the aLMIGHTY oRACLE condemns and ridicules such valid and untainted media ....well as the old adage goes ....consider the source!

128   mell   2013 Sep 29, 10:55am  

Bubbabear says

LOL ! Over 2000 views and 300+ comments but yet the aLMIGHTY oRACLE condemns and ridicules such valid and untainted media ....well as the old adage goes ....consider the source!

Yep - can't wait to post part three of this series, Schiff must have struck a nerve ;)

129   marcus   2013 Sep 29, 12:15pm  

WE also know of examples of naked longs having their heads handed to them.

Those who don't know might want to look in to the Hunt brothers and what they did in gold and silver in '79/'80.

Even manipulators to the upside can be screwed big time. But short selling that's totally a fools game, since there are people who can afford to buy the gold and hold it, once they deem the price to be low enough.

130   Bubbabeefcake   2013 Sep 29, 12:28pm  

egads101 says

if you weren't so stupid, you would pay attention to what the oracle says, but obviously, you are that stupid!

sticks & stones....Bah ha ha ha! ... the "aLMIGHTY aNAL oRIFICE" has spoken!

131   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   2013 Sep 29, 5:35pm  

did you know Schiff is "ship" in German but in English it sounds more like "shit"?

lookup youtube for "theShitReport" funny stuff.

anywho...looks like bear warriors have no leaders left...may have run out of steam as well.

short old man is hiding in Singapore.

Shiller is senile beyond comprehension.

Shiff is, well...pretty irrelevant these days. you think he would stop after 113 false predictions but no.

132   freak80   2013 Sep 29, 10:15pm  

Shiller is senile? Why?

133   upisdown   2013 Sep 29, 10:45pm  

theoakman says

Egg Harbor and Little Egg Harbor are completely different towns. In fact,
there's probably 3 or 4 towns in between the two.

Maybe that's why the word Little precedes Egg Harbor. huh.theoakman says

And yes, a lot of people in those areas have no natural gas line into their
home. It's not uncommon for the main part of town to have water, sewer and
natural gas lines while the outskirts and older roads have septic, well, and no
gas line. Some of them still have oil heat while others get Natural Gas
delivery.

That may sound good to you, and also may rationalize the issue to you, but it's not an accurate view of reality, or factual in regards to nat gas access/availibility.

See, there's this little website at eia.gov that does a state by state breakdown of all the energy sources and by each supplier within that state, along with total amount of each type of energy consumed by the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. You know, facts and data. Who knew?

And that data tells a completely different story(well the data is a compilation of history) that whatever numbnuts CIC has been pedaling around here. It wasn't hard to find at all, along with coverage areas by the different companies in NJ.Again, that data also doesn't support CIC's act of derriere referencing.

134   upisdown   2013 Sep 29, 10:54pm  

Call it Crazy says

upisdown
says



And now you deleted your post, how pathetic.


upisdown
says



And apparently delete any embarrassing posts too. Loser.


I haven't deleted ANY posts...


Just what type of medication are you on?????

I responded to Bob's post, which made that response post #197, and AFTER I pointed out that you responded instead of him, the next 2 posts suddenly are missing, including your's. I know, freaky, huh. LOL.

Now my former post #197 is now #192, and your post responding(to me, of which was me responding to Bob)is back.

F-n surreal, isn't it.

135   freak80   2013 Sep 30, 2:57am  

Seems like the Schiffbots are missing the forest for the trees. They're nitpicking on how many homes in Bobsville, NJ use propane vs. natural gas, the exact price of copper, and how the price of their favorite cut of steak costs a lot more.

Overall, inflation isn't too bad.

136   Bubbabeefcake   2013 Sep 30, 3:01am  

egads101 says

Now, if you are going to talk about his advice being better than mine, you have to answer that one single line. Or really, admit you are too stupid to do so, and just shut up on here.

Bah ha ha ha! ... the "aLMIGHTY aNAL oRIFICE" has spoken!

137   StillLooking   2013 Sep 30, 5:10am  

Before 2004 the average price of copper must have been well under a dollar.

Copper is showing raging inflation.

And you claimed that copper was proving your point about low inflation

138   gsr   2013 Sep 30, 5:35am  

freak80 says

Seems like the Schiffbots are missing the forest for the trees. They're nitpicking on how many homes in Bobsville, NJ use propane vs. natural gas, the exact price of copper, and how the price of their favorite cut of steak costs a lot more.

Overall, inflation isn't too bad.

As long as you exclude housing, food, gas etc. Of course, we are supposed to love housing inflation.

139   gsr   2013 Sep 30, 5:45am  

gsr says

Overall, inflation isn't too bad.

Apart from housing, there is also another effect you do not realize. The inflation is being exported to emerging markets, as they also printed money to keep the dollar high in value. They got bitten lately. In addition, the country has the largest military strength. So it has not come to the point where foreigners lose faith in USD more than they lose faith in their own currencies.

Without a dollar crisis, the hyperinflation won't happen. It will be rather a slow recessionary effect on common people for a long time before actual currency crisis happens.

140   smaulgld   2013 Sep 30, 5:50am  

gsr says

gsr says

Overall, inflation isn't too bad.

Apart from housing, there is also another effect you do not realize. The inflation is being exported to emerging markets, as they also printed money to keep the dollar high in value. They got bitten lately. In addition, the country has the largest military strength. So it has not come to the point where foreigners lose faith in USD more than they lose faith in their own currencies.

Without a dollar crisis, the hyperinflation won't happen. It will be rather a slow recessionary effect on common people for a long time before actual currency crisis happens.

Food for thought on that
http://smaulgld.com/why-the-end-of-quantitative-easing-may-be-bad-for-the-dollar/

141   Bubbabeefcake   2013 Sep 30, 6:06am  

egads101 says

Bubbabear says

egads101 says

Now, if you are going to talk about his advice being better than mine, you have to answer that one single line. Or really, admit you are too stupid to do so, and just shut up on here.

Bah ha ha ha! ... the "aLMIGHTY aNAL oRIFICE" has spoken!

ok, strike 3. you are just a stupid F**K. sucks to be you, on this blog for 2 years dreaming house prices would crash further!

Ok, strike 3 ... Bah ha ha ha! ... the "aLMIGHTY aNAL oRIFICE" has spoken prematurely!

142   freak80   2013 Sep 30, 6:25am  

A loaf of bread is still about $2.50. A gallon of milk is still about $3. Nationally, house prices have returned to long-term historic averages.

The big run-up in oil prices happened long before QE. A few million new drivers in China combined with depleting conventional oil reserves will do that.

The health care and college rackets are killing us, but that's not the fault of the fed. College is the new high school, since anyone can get a college degree nowadays. Now you need a college degree to get a low-wage shit-job, when previously a high school diploma would do. It's an "arms race" to get the best credentials even if said credentials are irrelevant to the job.

143   StillLooking   2013 Sep 30, 6:32am  

freak80 says

A loaf of bread is still about $2.50. A gallon of milk is still about $3. Nationally, house prices have returned to long-term historic averages.

The big run-up in oil prices happened long before QE. A few million new drivers in China combined with depleting conventional oil reserves will do that.

The health care and college rackets are killing us, but that's not the fault of the fed. College is the new high school, since anyone can get a college degree nowadays. Now you need a college degree to get a low-wage shit-job, when previously a high school diploma would do. It's an "arms race" to get the best credentials even if said credentials are irrelevant to the job.

Organic milk is $6 a gallon. Industrial food that kills is much cheaper than good healthy wholesome food.

Milk is one item where organic is well worth it.

144   mell   2013 Sep 30, 6:39am  

The EPI is a much better calculator for inflation of everyday items and not surprisingly yields significantly higher inflation:

https://www.aier.org/article/7557-epi-reflects-basic-economic-change

145   freak80   2013 Sep 30, 6:49am  

Remember, a price increase could from the fundamentals.

Over the last 15 years, we decided to let the third world compete for the same limited planetary resources. Thank you, globalization. When you've got millions of new people entering the middle class worldwide, that puts severe strain on resources like oil and metals.

In a global economy, everybody makes Bangladesh wages. But that's the fault of globalization, not the fed.

146   StillLooking   2013 Sep 30, 7:31am  

Copper is showing raging inflation no matter how you slice it. You claimed the exact opposite.

And in the 1990s inflation was low.

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