patrick.net

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR189.html

Our analysis suggests that comparisons of average premiums with and without the Affordable Care Act may overstate the potential for premium increases. Sweeping statements about the effects of the Affordable Care Act on premiums should be interpreted very carefully because the law has complex effects that will differ depending on individuals’ age and smoking status, the actuarial value of the plan chosen, individuals’ eligibility for federal tax credits, and state implementation decisions. Once we adjust for age, actuarial value, and tobacco use, nongroup premiums are estimated to remain unchanged at the national level and in many states. Further, after accounting for tax credits, AVERAGE OUT OF POCKET PREMIUM SPENDING IN THE NONGROUP MARKET IS ESTIMATED TO DECLINE OR REMAIN UNCHANGED IN ALL STATES CONSIDERED AND IN THE NATION OVERALL.