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Blackhawk market dying


               
2013 Oct 14, 4:29pm   12,220 views  31 comments

by RentingForHalfTheCost   follow (2)  

75 days now and no bids.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Danville/4352-Mansfield-Dr-94506/home/1941211

Now the owner is trying to rent.

http://sfbay.en.craigslist.org/eby/apa/4126898569.html

It'll be interesting to see how long before the price drops. I doubt there are many people willing to rent a house for 4.5K/mth. It is a little too far from Google.

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1   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   @   2013 Oct 14, 6:45pm  

how much time you spend on CL daily? be honest.

2   tatupu70   @   2013 Oct 15, 3:27am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Buy: 5375/Mth mortgage + lost 20% opportunity money + 1000/Mth property tax +
140/mth HOA + 150/Mth insurrance + maintenance + realtor/closing costs, etc.
etc..


In other words, the housing bulls would say it is a buyer dream. How else
could you dump money in a home faster? Buy Buy Buy! or be priced out
forever!

First--the property tax and HOA are already in the mortgage monthly calculation. Second, you conveniently leave out the $1200+ in principal repayment every month and almost $20K/year tax break.

It's probably better to rent, but not by much.

3   David9   @   2013 Oct 15, 3:30am  

fyi, for the Redfin / Danville property, $315 a square foot is low end price for the highest desirable cities of Sherman Oaks and Woodland Hills in the South San Fernando Valley.

Easily verifiable. At first I just looked at the lower end properties, then thought before posting I should look at the higher end house market like the example, the same holds true, much more so for Sherman Oaks actually.

4   tatupu70   @   2013 Oct 15, 5:33am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

You are half correct. I just ran the numbers on a loan with a 5% 30yr of 880K (80%) and with 1.1% property tax included it comes to 5730/mth. Doesn't look to include the HOA as well. So lets do the equation again and see how it is "not by much".

Well, the number you cited was from the website you linked and was for a 4.375% loan. So, I'm 100% correct.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Rent: 4500/mth total

Buy: 5730 (mort + tax) + 140 (HOA) + opportunity loss on 220K downpayment + 150 (insurance) + maintenance + closing costs + realtor fees. = ~ 8500/mth

Still doesn't look close to me. Principal reduction and tax breaks are minor compared to the outlay of money per month.

lol. Again--the HOA is included. You have to buy renters insurance anyway, so the difference is probably $75/month. There are no realtor's fees to buy a house.

Bottom line: I ran the numbers on the NYT rent vs. buy calculator and it came out renting is better for 7 years or less, buying is better after 7 years. About what I expected.

5   tatupu70   @   2013 Oct 15, 6:20am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

1) In my 5% calc HOA is not included. Keep trying to blur the numbers.

I'm not blurring anything. Your link is the source. And 5% is not the current 30 year mortgage rate.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Renters insurance is for your contents, not for the house. I have never carried renters insurance. If you buy a house with a mortage you absolutely have to have insurance or the bank will not front the money. Try again

Sorry, I assumed you'd want to carry it. I can assure you it doesn't change the rent vs. buy calculation.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

) You do pay the realtor fees. The money comes from you when you buy. The seller does not pull out money from his pocket. Give up the magic trick you are trying to do to justify your view. Buyers pay everything. Seller, realtors, and city collect. It isn't that hard to understand.

What the heck are you talking about? You absolutely DO NOT pay realtor's fees when you buy. Have you ever bought a house?? You pay some closing costs, but not realtor's fees.

Current 30 yr. fixed is 3.75% at Amerisave.

http://www.amerisave.com/

6   tatupu70   @   2013 Oct 15, 6:27am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Sorry, the buyer pays the realtor. I have bought and sold houses many many times. Money comes from the buyer.

i.e. Buyer pays 100K for a house divided as follows : 94K to the seller, 6K to the realtors.

It is very difficult to follow, so please review the complex math above before replying. You can ask a friend also for help, or call a family member.

OK--I'm done. You're obviously trolling.

7   Y   @   2013 Oct 15, 6:35am  

Depends on your point of view.
#1: Buyer pays only if seller adds 6% markup to the amount seller wants to clear.
#2: Seller pays if there is no markup to the amount the seller wants to clear.
#3: Buyer always pays since they are the only entity forking over cash.
#4: Seller pays since they have to cut the check to realtor..
#5: Realtor starves if you get off your ass, market your house, and hire a lawyer to draw up the docs.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Sorry, the buyer pays the realtor. I have bought and sold houses many many times. Money comes from the buyer.

i.e. Buyer pays 100K for a house divided as follows : 94K to the seller, 6K to the realtors.

8   tatupu70   @   2013 Oct 15, 6:39am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Buyer pays everything. Seller, Realtor lawyer, and city take. Again, not hard to follow, unless you have an agenda for being dishonest.

OK--if you want to be an idiot about it, you need to deduct all those charges off the sales price then. Which you DIDN'T do.

The buyer doesn't pay the price of the house and those charges.

9   thomaswong.1986   @   2013 Oct 15, 7:12am  

tatupu70 says

The buyer doesn't pay the price of the house and those charges.

of course you do.. and if the seller thinks he can inflate an additional 30K above the price..
thats amounts to getting a new car or big time vacation. In all cases the BUYER pays for it.

10   thomaswong.1986   @   2013 Oct 15, 7:14am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Nope, buyer always (repeat always) pays. Following the money. Nothing comes out of the sellers pocket. Not hard folks.

And to make that happen the funds go into escrow so all the parties get their cut..

11   smaulgld   @   2013 Oct 15, 7:15am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Still doesn't look close to me. Principal reduction and tax breaks are minor compared to the outlay of money per month.

Probably best to move out that area if those are your options

12   tatupu70   @   2013 Oct 15, 8:01am  

thomaswong.1986 says

of course you do.. and if the seller thinks he can inflate an additional 30K above the price..

thats amounts to getting a new car or big time vacation. In all cases the BUYER pays for it.

lol-- I should have expected Thomas to join the crazy train here....

For the record, the buyer pays for the house. The price of which is set by supply and demand--not affected by the amount of commission the SELLER pays after the transaction is complete. Whether the SELLER pays 1%, 3%, or 6% the price is set by supply and demand.

Once more for the trolls. The buyer absolutely does NOT pay commission. He pays the market rate for the house. The seller then pays commission to his representative.

13   EBGuy   @   2013 Oct 15, 9:22am  

This one at 3436 Blackhawk Meadow Drive gets bonus points for having a Countrywide (and America's Wholesale Lender) mortgage when it was originally purchased in 2005. That said, they did manage a refi in 2011.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Danville/3236-Blackhawk-Meadow-Dr-94506/home/1614312

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