patrick.net

Don't you mean "The writing is on the wall 56"?

Nevermind you were wrong the first 55 times.

Wrong ha! Let's see. This is from my original posting almost 1 year ago:

1. Fiscal cliff will be kicked down the road, again. CHECK

2. Look for S&P downgrading US rating by February, 2013. THIS HASN'T HAPPENED YET, BUT ONLY BECAUSE, S&P is now scared of the FED. Instead Chinese agency is downgrading US credit to the level of Brazil.

3. As a result China/Japan/OPEC selling bonds en mass. CHECK

4. As a result, FED to raise QE-infinity to $60B/month, which also will include T-bill buying. FED raises QE-infinity to $85B/month which even exceeds my own expectations. CHECK.

5. Banks, realizing that FED is the buyer of last resort, dump the bonds at the auction. STILL TO COME.

6. Interest rates soar. CHECK - THIS IS ONLY STARTING.

7. Housing tanks. STILL TO COME.

What happened to prices down to 1975 levels?

tatupu70 says

What happened to prices down to 1975 levels?

That prediction was made before the FED and central banks decided to send the whole country down the cliff of death. Even I didn't think they valued their own wallets much more than the welfare of the whole country.

dunnross says

That prediction was made before the FED and central banks decided to send the
whole country down the cliff of death. Even I didn't think they valued their own
wallets much more than the welfare of the whole country.

Are you implying that housing prices at 1975 levels would have been good for the country?

Regardless, however, it should have been clear to anyone who has ever studied any economic history that the Federal Reserve will exhaust all alternatives to avoid sustained deflation. As they should.

tatupu70 says

Are you implying that housing prices at 1975 levels would have been good for the country?

What if this was all people would be willing to pay/afford, absent all deductions, special homeowner programs and government guarantees, interest rate shenanigans, MBS buying, etc? What would you think this would do to the country? And what does it tell you if prices of houses/land slots need to be kept up, dislocated from their intrinsic values to make the economy look better than it is?

tatupu70 says

What happened to prices down to 1975 levels?

That prediction was made before the FED and central banks decided to send the whole country down the cliff of death. Even I didn't think they valued their own wallets much more than the welfare of the whole country.tatupu70 says

Are you implying that housing prices at 1975 levels would have been good for the country?

Yes, that's exactly what I am implying. In fact, that would be the best thing that could ever happen to the country and all the future generations. In 1947 a WWII veteran without an education could buy a house in the suburbs on a single salary, feed a family of 6 and send all his children to a private school. Roll forward 66 years and we have a country impoverished in debt, a police state, and a monopoly currency which is laughing stock of the entire world.

tatupu70 says

Regardless, however, it should have been clear to anyone who has ever studied any economic history that the Federal Reserve will exhaust all alternatives to avoid sustained deflation. As they should.

Well, as you can see from my prediction last year, I did realize that the FED will do that, because, their only purpose in this world is to save the skin of their cabal, even if it means to send the entire middle class of this country to the poor house.

mell says

And what does it tell you if prices of houses/land slots need to be kept up,
dislocated from their intrinsic values to make the economy look better than it
is?

What exactly is the "intrinsic" value of a house? How do you determine it?

I'll answer that--it's BS.

tatupu70 says

What exactly is the "intrinsic" value of a house? How do you determine it?

If it takes a life of an engineer with a PhD to pay off something which was built by 2 illegal aliens in 2 months, then, that is clearly not anywhere close to the intrinsic value.

dunnross says

If it takes a life of an engineer with a PhD to pay off something which was
built by 2 illegal aliens in 2 months, then, that is clearly not anywhere close
to the intrinsic value.

I see. So this a true valuation then.

dunnross says

Yes, that's exactly what I am implying. In fact, that would be the best thing that could ever happen to the country and all the future generations. In 1947 a WWII veteran without an education could buy a house in the suburbs on a single salary, feed a family of 6 and send all his children to a private school. Roll forward 66 years and we have a country impoverished in debt,

Solidly agree with this.. Citizens are better off with half or less in debt and higher savings account. Even as late as mid 90s many didnt have a huge mortgage burden.

dunnross says

If it takes a life of an engineer with a PhD to pay off something which was built by 2 illegal aliens in 2 months, then, that is clearly not anywhere close to the intrinsic value.

not far from the truth.. this is why San Jose / Santa Clara has hit a new low.

thomaswong.1986 says

dunnross says

Yes, that's exactly what I am implying. In fact, that would be the best thing that could ever happen to the country and all the future generations. In 1947 a WWII veteran without an education could buy a house in the suburbs on a single salary, feed a family of 6 and send all his children to a private school. Roll forward 66 years and we have a country impoverished in debt,

Solidly agree with this.. Citizens are better off with half or less in debt and higher savings account. Even as late as mid 90s many didnt have a huge mortgage burden.

Agreed.

dunnross says

If it takes a life of an engineer with a PhD to pay off something which was built by 2 illegal aliens in 2 months, then, that is clearly not anywhere close to the intrinsic value.

But not to worry. If we continue on the same path that the FED and the gov't have set for us, pretty soon it would take a life of a PhD engineer just to pay for dinner.

egads101 says

how did this prediction of yours from june 2012 work out?

Just because the FED and the gov't decided to extend the party for a while longer doesn't make my predictions wrong. It only means that the eventual fall will be just as more painful.

Actually, I invite you all to take a look at my predictions vs. the predictions made by the head of our wonderful FED:

http://mises.org/daily/3588

Well, just only in September, everybody on wall street and the mainstream media had predicted for Ben to taper the QE, while I, myself, predicted 11 months ago that they would not taper, but only accelerate. So, who turned out to be correct?

It's very interesting that many of the youtube videos of Ben's clairvoyant predictions were pulled off the internet. Here is one example:

http://www.youtube.com/embed/HQ79Pt2GNJo

tatupu70 says

Federal Reserve will exhaust all alternatives to avoid any and all losses for their controlling interests. As they should.

FTFY
Historically, as my grandfather, a small town bank president, and my father, a much bigger banker, knew, they are just fucking houses. Like, to house your family.
Once they got donkeys like you to borrow at interest for depreciating assets and think they were "investors" they completed the Great Grift.

egads101 says

a million of his quotes have been printed in newspapers

And, what's amazing is that the guy who is supposed to be the most influential person in the world can get away with not having a clue about the depression, nor the fact that he caused it to happen.

egads101 says

you are honestly going to claim Bernanke caused the depression. wow.

Yes, he wasn't the only one responsible, but he was one of the main perpetrators of it. The depression happened because the bubble he had blown burst. But, what's even worse, is that he didn't learn any lessons (just like you didn't either). He continues to "cure" the economy by using the same methods he used to fuck it up in the first place. This is exactly why this depression is going to go on for a long time, and the next dip is going to be much scarier than the first one.

I guess it doesn't take a PhD in economics to realize that throwing $1.6T a year at the economy which is only growing at a rate of $300B/year is a losing proposition.

egads101 says

he is a phd economist who studied the great depression extensively. I am highly educated in the field as well, and I tend to agree with his view.

Yes, both of you are great minds and I am a dumbass. Except this dumbass could predict the great depression and you denied it, just like you're both denying it now. The great PhD economist did absolutely nothing to prevent the bubble, to stop the banks from lending money to the people who could never pay them back. On the contrary, he threw more fuel into the fire and denied that the bubble ever existed. When the banks failed, he made the taxpayer pay for all the bank's mistakes. The next collapse is going to be much more serious than the last one, but the great minds are still denying it. Maybe because they know that the taxpayer will pay for that one too. I guess he knows that the taxpayer is the most generous taxpayer in the world, because, the taxpayer listens to cheerleaders like you, and not capable of understanding what's really going on.

egads101 says

he is a phd economist who studied the great depression extensively. I am highly educated in the field as well, and I tend to agree with his view.

Yes, I am from the government and I am here to help.

egads101 says

he is a phd economist who studied the great depression extensively. I am highly educated in the field as well, and I tend to agree with his view.

I see a great resemblance between you and the FED chairman. You are both lying through your teeth, even about something as fundamental as your identity. The Federal Reserve is neither Federal, nor do they have any Reserves. You are Roberto and trying to make us think that you're not.

egads101 says

haha. I sold 4 investment properties in 2004, 2005 and sat on the money. then I bought 13 in 2009-2011...

Show us the proof. You liar. Why should we even believe a guy who can't even say the truth about his own identity.

egads101 says

That is about as good as it gets dipstick.

Nope. Buying gold would have been much better. That's what I did.

egads101 says

I will stay anonymous, as a good oracle should.

Not only are you a liar, but also a coward with no cojones.

egads101 says

I heard what some asshole from this site did to that other guy, called his work and claimed he had a gun..

But we already know exactly where you work. This place:

http://www.scottsdalecc.edu/academics/faculty/roberto-ribas

That is, if you haven't been expelled from there as the worst professor in the history of that institution.

How about being on record for saying that silver is going to go to $10/oz. Do you want me to bring that up too?

egads101 says

If I was a serial liar, always wrong dipshit like you, I suppose maybe I'd find someone to harass online too.

Spoken like a true victim of online harassment!

dunnross says

egads101 says

he is a phd economist who studied the great depression extensively. I am highly educated in the field as well, and I tend to agree with his view.

I see a great resemblance between you and the FED chairman. You are both lying through your teeth, even about something as fundamental as your identity. The Federal Reserve is neither Federal, nor do they have any Reserves. You are Roberto and trying to make us think that you're not.

Yes, he's trying very, very hard to hide his real identity. That must presumably be why he just listed all his purchases in the post before.

dunnross says

egads101 says

I heard what some asshole from this site did to that other guy, called his work and claimed he had a gun..

But we already know exactly where you work. This place:

http://www.scottsdalecc.edu/academics/faculty/roberto-ribas

That is, if you haven't been expelled from there as the worst professor in the history of that institution.

Right, so from what he just posted that is what you focus on whilst ignoring the situation of some no-mark, apparently from this site, phoning his place of work and saying what they said. It's good that you have your priorities straight.

dunnross says

Yes, that's exactly what I am implying. In fact, that would be the best thing
that could ever happen to the country and all the future generations

Well, we'll have to disagree on that one. If house prices could magically drop and become more affordable without causing current owners to lose their current equity, then I'd agree.

Robert Sproul says

FTFY
Historically, as my grandfather, a small town bank president, and my
father, a much bigger banker, knew, they are just fucking houses. Like, to house
your family.
Once they got donkeys like you to borrow at interest for
depreciating assets and think they were "investors" they completed the Great
Grift.

FFS. They are houses. Nice strawman though.

When it's cheaper to buy, you buy. When it's cheaper to rent, you rent. Why do you think I or anyone else is an "investor"?

tatupu70 says

If house prices could magically drop and become more affordable without causing current owners to lose their current equity, then I'd agree.

Why shouldn't they lose their equity? They bought into this ponzi scheme boat line and sinker. Somebody needs to take the loss one way or another. But, instead of having these losers and the banks take the loss, we hand the losses over to the taxpayers and the prudent savers. And, this is exactly why the economy cannot grow, and will not grow for many decades.

dunnross says

Why shouldn't they lose their equity? They bought into this ponzi scheme boat
line and sinker. Somebody needs to take the loss one way or another. But,
instead of having these losers and the banks take the loss, we hand the losses
over to the taxpayers and the prudent savers. And, this is exactly why the
economy cannot grow, and will not grow for many decades.

wtf are you talking about. If prices go to 1975 nominal levels, we'd be in a depression for certain. I don't think your employer would care if you were a homeowner or renter as they laid you off. Or as they went out of business.

And contrary to your belief that we'd have a nice, short, uneventful few years of recession--it would be long and it would be ugly and there is no reason to think it would clear the way for growth in the future.

tatupu70 says

wtf are you talking about. If prices go to 1975 nominal levels, we'd be in a depression for certain. I don't think your employer would care if you were a homeowner or renter as they laid you off. Or as they went out of business.

Yes, that's the official story from the FED fear mongers who try to justify their current policies of sending the country into the abyss. On the other hand, reality and history shows otherwise. We have an example of Japan, which has the same policies that we do, and are entering a 3rd decade of a depression vs Argentina, Iceland and Russia, all defaulting and enjoying high economic growth the very next year after the default.

tatupu70 says

I don't think your employer would care if you were a homeowner or renter as they laid you off.

Unlike a homeowner, however, I would be able to move and find another job somewhere else.

dunnross says

Yes, that's the official story from the FED fear mongers who try to justify
their current policies of sending the country into the abyss. On the other hand,
reality and history shows otherwise. We have an example of Japan, which has the
same policies that we do, and are entering a 3rd decade of a depression vs
Argentina, Iceland and Russia, all defaulting and enjoying high economic growth
the very next year after the default.

But we're not talking about the government defaulting. So what's your point?

dunnross says

Unlike a homeowner, however, I would be able to move and find another job
somewhere else.

Really? You think that a depression is local? There are no jobs ANYWHERE. Move all you want. It won't matter.