patrick.net

Don't you mean "The writing is on the wall 56"?

Nevermind you were wrong the first 55 times.

Wrong ha! Let's see. This is from my original posting almost 1 year ago:

1. Fiscal cliff will be kicked down the road, again. CHECK

2. Look for S&P downgrading US rating by February, 2013. THIS HASN'T HAPPENED YET, BUT ONLY BECAUSE, S&P is now scared of the FED. Instead Chinese agency is downgrading US credit to the level of Brazil.

3. As a result China/Japan/OPEC selling bonds en mass. CHECK

4. As a result, FED to raise QE-infinity to $60B/month, which also will include T-bill buying. FED raises QE-infinity to $85B/month which even exceeds my own expectations. CHECK.

5. Banks, realizing that FED is the buyer of last resort, dump the bonds at the auction. STILL TO COME.

6. Interest rates soar. CHECK - THIS IS ONLY STARTING.

7. Housing tanks. STILL TO COME.

What happened to prices down to 1975 levels?

tatupu70 says

What happened to prices down to 1975 levels?

That prediction was made before the FED and central banks decided to send the whole country down the cliff of death. Even I didn't think they valued their own wallets much more than the welfare of the whole country.

dunnross says

That prediction was made before the FED and central banks decided to send the
whole country down the cliff of death. Even I didn't think they valued their own
wallets much more than the welfare of the whole country.

Are you implying that housing prices at 1975 levels would have been good for the country?

Regardless, however, it should have been clear to anyone who has ever studied any economic history that the Federal Reserve will exhaust all alternatives to avoid sustained deflation. As they should.

tatupu70 says

Are you implying that housing prices at 1975 levels would have been good for the country?

What if this was all people would be willing to pay/afford, absent all deductions, special homeowner programs and government guarantees, interest rate shenanigans, MBS buying, etc? What would you think this would do to the country? And what does it tell you if prices of houses/land slots need to be kept up, dislocated from their intrinsic values to make the economy look better than it is?

tatupu70 says

What happened to prices down to 1975 levels?

That prediction was made before the FED and central banks decided to send the whole country down the cliff of death. Even I didn't think they valued their own wallets much more than the welfare of the whole country.tatupu70 says

Are you implying that housing prices at 1975 levels would have been good for the country?

Yes, that's exactly what I am implying. In fact, that would be the best thing that could ever happen to the country and all the future generations. In 1947 a WWII veteran without an education could buy a house in the suburbs on a single salary, feed a family of 6 and send all his children to a private school. Roll forward 66 years and we have a country impoverished in debt, a police state, and a monopoly currency which is laughing stock of the entire world.

tatupu70 says

Regardless, however, it should have been clear to anyone who has ever studied any economic history that the Federal Reserve will exhaust all alternatives to avoid sustained deflation. As they should.

Well, as you can see from my prediction last year, I did realize that the FED will do that, because, their only purpose in this world is to save the skin of their cabal, even if it means to send the entire middle class of this country to the poor house.

mell says

And what does it tell you if prices of houses/land slots need to be kept up,
dislocated from their intrinsic values to make the economy look better than it
is?

What exactly is the "intrinsic" value of a house? How do you determine it?

I'll answer that--it's BS.

tatupu70 says

What exactly is the "intrinsic" value of a house? How do you determine it?

If it takes a life of an engineer with a PhD to pay off something which was built by 2 illegal aliens in 2 months, then, that is clearly not anywhere close to the intrinsic value.

dunnross says

If it takes a life of an engineer with a PhD to pay off something which was
built by 2 illegal aliens in 2 months, then, that is clearly not anywhere close
to the intrinsic value.

I see. So this a true valuation then.

dunnross says

Yes, that's exactly what I am implying. In fact, that would be the best thing that could ever happen to the country and all the future generations. In 1947 a WWII veteran without an education could buy a house in the suburbs on a single salary, feed a family of 6 and send all his children to a private school. Roll forward 66 years and we have a country impoverished in debt,

Solidly agree with this.. Citizens are better off with half or less in debt and higher savings account. Even as late as mid 90s many didnt have a huge mortgage burden.

dunnross says

If it takes a life of an engineer with a PhD to pay off something which was built by 2 illegal aliens in 2 months, then, that is clearly not anywhere close to the intrinsic value.

not far from the truth.. this is why San Jose / Santa Clara has hit a new low.

thomaswong.1986 says

dunnross says

Yes, that's exactly what I am implying. In fact, that would be the best thing that could ever happen to the country and all the future generations. In 1947 a WWII veteran without an education could buy a house in the suburbs on a single salary, feed a family of 6 and send all his children to a private school. Roll forward 66 years and we have a country impoverished in debt,

Solidly agree with this.. Citizens are better off with half or less in debt and higher savings account. Even as late as mid 90s many didnt have a huge mortgage burden.

Agreed.

dunnross says

If it takes a life of an engineer with a PhD to pay off something which was built by 2 illegal aliens in 2 months, then, that is clearly not anywhere close to the intrinsic value.

But not to worry. If we continue on the same path that the FED and the gov't have set for us, pretty soon it would take a life of a PhD engineer just to pay for dinner.

egads101 says

how did this prediction of yours from june 2012 work out?

Just because the FED and the gov't decided to extend the party for a while longer doesn't make my predictions wrong. It only means that the eventual fall will be just as more painful.

Actually, I invite you all to take a look at my predictions vs. the predictions made by the head of our wonderful FED:

http://mises.org/daily/3588

Well, just only in September, everybody on wall street and the mainstream media had predicted for Ben to taper the QE, while I, myself, predicted 11 months ago that they would not taper, but only accelerate. So, who turned out to be correct?

It's very interesting that many of the youtube videos of Ben's clairvoyant predictions were pulled off the internet. Here is one example:

http://www.HQ79Pt2GNJo

tatupu70 says

Federal Reserve will exhaust all alternatives to avoid any and all losses for their controlling interests. As they should.

FTFY
Historically, as my grandfather, a small town bank president, and my father, a much bigger banker, knew, they are just fucking houses. Like, to house your family.
Once they got donkeys like you to borrow at interest for depreciating assets and think they were "investors" they completed the Great Grift.