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Bellingham Bill
2013 Dec 8, 5:36am
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pKf
is retail jobs per working age population 15-64
(1 out of n people working in retail, n being 12 at the end of the 1990s boom and ~14 at the end 2000s recession).
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pKh
FIRE jobs -- red (right axis) is real estate (1 out of 140 people in the 1990s to 1 out of 130 during the real estate boom), blue is financial and insurance (1 out of ~33).
Information is mostly steady, except telecom (thick green) and publishing (thick orange):
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pKi
down 700,000+ jobs since the dotcom crash.
Altogether, information services has gone from 1 in 50 people in 1999 to 1 in 75 now:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pKj
a ~16% job purge sine 1999:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pKk
health care (blue): and education (red, right axis):
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pKo
are the two major job-gainers, moving from 1 job for 90 people in the 1990s to 1 in 60 (education) and 1 in 19 in 1990 to 1 in 14 today for healthcare.
As the boomers age and our senior population doubling in size between 2000 and 2030 (~40M to ~80M) health jobs will continue to rise.
Education will hold steady too, as Gen Y is entering their prime baby making years so we'll see another baby boom echo appear this decade and next.
RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks
2013 Dec 8, 8:38am
solution is to reduce welfare for single parents. people get pregnant just to collect welfare.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pKa
blue is YOY job growth, red is age 20-24 population divided by 5.
In the past, we had organic job growth, +20M jobs in each decade 1970s - 1990s.
The previous decade saw a net loss of ~2M jobs:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pKc
The 'good' part of the story is that the baby boom is aged 50 to 68 next year and will be increasingly vacating their jobs to the next generations (Gen X is age 32 to 50 and Gen Y is age 14 to 32).
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pKd
Blue is total jobs and red is age working age population age 15-65.
Converting this into a ratio:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pKe
we see that the recession knocked employment back to mid-1980s levels and the jobs recovery thus far has only gotten us back to the 1990s recession low.
Manufacturing employment is still at early 1940s levels:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MANEMP
Not that American labor can compete with Chinese labor any more.