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What are the odds China will go to war?


               
2014 Jan 11, 7:52pm   2,904 views  29 comments

by indigenous   follow (1)  

Often countries go to war to solve economic problems. E.G. Argentina and the Falklands, Germany in WWll, the entire history of the USSR. (which says something about communism)

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1   indigenous   2014 Jan 11, 7:55pm  

China is building a lot of war shit. Can the US even build war shit at any volume?

2   casandra   2014 Jan 12, 12:05am  

They are being set up as the next world puppets. When were all used up and discarded, they will be trained and ready to fill our gap.

3   spydah_hh   2014 Jan 12, 12:54am  

Well China is already playing the monetary cold war game.

4   tatupu70   2014 Jan 12, 1:00am  

indigenous says

China is building a lot of war shit. Can the US even build war shit at any volume?

That's a joke, right? Why do you think we have such a large deficit??

5   Tenpoundbass   2014 Jan 12, 1:03am  

China's waring success has been limited to the logistics of transporting the millions of soldiers to lands that that they can march to.
They have never been Naval superior. As there success comes from numbers.

Even for the US, the only reason we were successful at Normandy and Omaha beach, was because we lured all of the Germans to those consolidated locations. Had the Germans remained spread out through out France, we would have never sent enough Soldiers to successfully Liberate France from Germany.

We beat them with surprise and firepower. Once we beat them there, there was no opposition left in the rest of the Country to challenge us.

Even for the US, let's not forget we are able to bomb middle east countries with Drones and other sorties, because there's no one to challenge us, and sink our aircraft carriers sitting the Gulf. And surrounding countries that allow us to fly out of there.
China can have their aircraft carriers, but the minute they point them in our direction they would be sunk long before they ever made it to range to attack the US.

If China was Canada, or Mexico we'd be screwed, they would beat us with sheer numbers. They throw every man woman and child into their war efforts.

6   Strategist   2014 Jan 12, 1:09am  

What are the odds China will go to war?

ZERO!
The days of the empires are over. All the Chinese want is more money, and the only way they can do that is through economic development and trade.

7   indigenous   2014 Jan 12, 1:10am  

spydah_hh says

monetary cold war game.

How does that work?

8   indigenous   2014 Jan 12, 1:18am  

CaptainShuddup says

If China was Canada, or Mexico we'd be screwed, they would beat us with sheer numbers. They throw every man woman and child into their war efforts.

Maybe but China is getting quite technologically advanced.

They are going to be heading into some serious economical problems, similar to the US in the 30s, it might be a temptation for them.

I don't think that they would go against the US though.

9   indigenous   2014 Jan 12, 1:20am  

Strategist says

All the Chinese want is more money, and the only way they can do that is through economic development and trade.

That is just it that is becoming less and less of an option for them.

10   Shaman   2014 Jan 12, 1:44am  

I agree with Strategist, China is too heavily invested in the rest of the world to risk war. Why would they bother with it when they can just trade for whatever they need? China is about Chinese culture. Building of their military is more about strengthening their hold ok their own citizens and impressing their own people than about threatening neighbors or other superpowers. The US is the last place china would want to have serious problems with.

11   thomaswong.1986   2014 Jan 12, 3:39pm  

Strategist says

. All the Chinese want is more money,

more about Raw Materials and Food be it more likely in Australia

and around Asia than the US. But they would be eyeballing

the Oil fields in Alaska and Canada...

12   Y   2014 Jan 12, 10:09pm  

The chinese are fucked. No society can survive the looming cancer rates from their polluted air.

13   spydah_hh   2014 Jan 12, 11:06pm  

indigenous says

spydah_hh says

monetary cold war game.

How does that work?

Currencies wars, devaluating their currencies to get their goods cheap allowing them to exploit their exports. The race to the bottom.

14   Strategist   2014 Jan 12, 11:23pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

Strategist says

. All the Chinese want is more money,

more about Raw Materials and Food be it more likely in Australia

and around Asia than the US. But they would be eyeballing

the Oil fields in Alaska and Canada...

All they have to do is buy it. It's cheaper to buy it than have an army steal it.
As for Alaska and Canada oil fields....they ain't got the balls.

15   Strategist   2014 Jan 12, 11:40pm  

Strategist says

thomaswong.1986 says

Strategist says

. All the Chinese want is more money,

more about Raw Materials and Food be it more likely in Australia

and around Asia than the US. But they would be eyeballing

the Oil fields in Alaska and Canada...

All they have to do is buy it. It's cheaper to buy it than have an army steal it.

As for Alaska and Canada oil fields....they ain't got the balls.

Hey, why don't they take over Iraq?
Let the Chinese deal with them for a change.

16   New Renter   2014 Jan 13, 12:05am  

indigenous says

China is building a lot of war shit. Can the US even build war shit at any volume?

I dunno, ask the Japanese circa 1945.

Japan had one HELL of a war machine in the late 1930s/early '40s. Ours was a peacetime military, if that. The Japanese even got the first punch in the fight and yes it was a doozy.

How'd that work out again?

17   indigenous   2014 Jan 13, 12:29am  

spydah_hh says

indigenous says

spydah_hh says

monetary cold war game.

How does that work?

Currencies wars, devaluating their currencies to get their goods cheap allowing them to exploit their exports. The race to the bottom.

They quit devaluing the Yuan in 2005. Since then it has climbed 31%

18   indigenous   2014 Jan 13, 12:37am  

thomaswong.1986 says

Strategist says

. All the Chinese want is more money,

more about Raw Materials and Food be it more likely in Australia

and around Asia than the US. But they would be eyeballing

the Oil fields in Alaska and Canada...

The commodities price is slated to go down because of the drop in Chinese consumption. They are changing from a export driven country to a consumption based country.

19   indigenous   2014 Jan 13, 12:39am  

New Renter says

How'd that work out again?

Not good

20   FortWayne   2014 Jan 13, 12:50am  

indigenous says

China is building a lot of war shit. Can the US even build war shit at any volume?

Only if China builds it for us, since we took all the industries and jobs there. We've been very diligent in America about destroying our own middle class, while building a middle class in other countries where labor was cheap.

I don't think China will go to war, they don't seem like they have a need for one. But if they do, we are screwed.

21   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Jan 13, 2:48am  

Quigley says

China is too heavily invested in the rest of the world to risk war.

This assumes there is someone smart at the helm that takes whatever decision he wants.

This is not the way it works. Nationalism is already rampant in China. It cannot be stopped. They will see every foreign policy decision will be seen in the light "China must not lose face".

When (not if) economic problems happen, they will resort to even more nationalism - maybe invade a small country - in order to distract the populace from real issues.

Importantly, there are no leaders in China that really have an other choice.

Quigley says

The US is the last place china would want to have serious problems with.

They will start with other countries: Philippines, Japan, or other... They will always hope the US is too comfortable to start a world war, until things go too far and the US is forced to react.

22   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Jan 13, 3:00am  

http://chinadailymail.com/2014/01/11/chinese-troops-to-seize-zhongye-island-back-from-the-philippines-in-2014/

"The following report is a translation from Chinese media. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily Mail.

Relying on US support, the Philippines is so arrogant as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and air force deployment at Zhongye Island, a Chinese island that it has illegally occupied for years.

It will be an intolerable insult to China

According to experts, the Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea.

The battle is aimed at recovery of the island stolen by the Philippines from China.

There will be no invasion into Filipino territories.

A report in the Philippines Star confirmed the Philippines military buildup on the island.

Read also – China and Philippines: The reasons why a battle for Zhongye (Pag-asa) Island seems unavoidable"

23   Strategist   2014 Jan 13, 5:34am  

The 1.5billion Chinese only want what the people in the rest of the world want....A good standard of living, opportunities and to provide for their families. It does not matter where you are from, the basic human wants and desires are identical for all humans. Sure there are a few rotten apples like Hitler and Pol Pot, but their chances of coming to power and convincing everyone to destroy other countries like USA is not realistic. It aint gonna happen. The worst case is a little skirmish here and there with some neighbors, but that's about it.
Welcome to a better world.

24   MisdemeanorRebel   2014 Jan 13, 5:50am  

Compare the size of the Japanese Air Defense ID Zone to the Chinese. Note the location of the Senkaku Islands, much closer to Taiwan and China than Japan.

Keep in mind the Japanese also argue with the Koreans over various Islands as well. Japan can be very, very nationalistic too. Japanese textbooks still are in denial that Japan was an aggressor in WW2, stuff we wouldn't tolerate in a German textbook.

"Oh, we were just trying to liberate Asia." That kind of stuff.

No mention of the Rape of Nanking, no mention of any war crimes, or of the flu/plague testing in Manchuria, no Baatan Death March, etc. etc.

25   lostand confused   2014 Jan 13, 5:53am  

We give them jobs and buy their cheap junk. Why again would they go to war?? What more can they gain from us????

26   Strategist   2014 Jan 13, 6:04am  

thunderlips11 says

Keep in mind the Japanese also argue with the Koreans over various Islands as well. Japan can be very, very nationalistic too. Japanese textbooks still are in denial that Japan was an aggressor in WW2, stuff we wouldn't tolerate in a German textbook.

"Oh, we were just trying to liberate Asia." That kind of stuff.

No mention of the Rape of Nanking, no mention of any war crimes, or of the flu/plague testing in Manchuria, no Baatan Death March, etc. etc.

I'm sure this is correct, but keep in mind the world is becoming a smaller place, more educated and better informed. As time goes by, nationalism and patriotism will diminish.
I for one have never believed in man made political boundaries. These boundaries are determined by politicians and constantly changing. No politician has ever asked me if any boundaries are acceptable to me, which they are not.
Take the example of Western Europe....nothing but wars and conflicts for centuries, but today, they have never been more united.
We just need to expand Europe to the whole world.

27   MisdemeanorRebel   2014 Jan 13, 6:04am  

There won't be any war with China. Boeing, GM, Google, Samsung, Darden Restaurants, YUM! Brands, etc will all be lobbying like hell against it the moment there is a whisper of military conflict.

28   MisdemeanorRebel   2014 Jan 13, 6:05am  

Strategist says

We just need to expand Europe to the whole world.

A noble sentiment, two thumbs up.

My purpose is simply to take some of the gristle off the "Good Japan-Bad China" narrative

29   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Jan 13, 7:01am  

Strategist says

As time goes by, nationalism and patriotism will diminish.

I think this a fair bit of wishful thinking. The same kind as Fukuyama's "the end of history".

"We will create an utopia, hold hands and sing Kumbaya forever after. "

This is not the way it works. The same patterns will reassert themselves.

Watch recent Chinese made movies: the stench of nationalism is increasingly clear. It's: "We are the best. We were wronged by foreign powers, but we will ultimately prevail".

Now you read it: "the Philippines is so arrogant as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and air force deployment at Zhongye Island, a Chinese island that it has illegally occupied for years. It will be an intolerable insult to China"

Their economic success is getting to their heads.

This is not to say that Japan is not nationalistic too. They are just not as threatening to their region, and not backed by nuclear missiles and a strong army.

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