patrick.net

"However, I’m sure that particular design is over $200/sqft installed, not including land costs, which could easily put the home close to $1M anywhere near SF Bay area–does that sound right?"

KurtS,

See my comments above. I did my research, crunched the numbers and came to the exact same conclusion. The biggest component by far of housing prices in CA is the land. I have nothing against manufactured houses per se, in fact I agree with Cindy that they're often better built than conventional ones. But anyone who thinks they can save a bundle going this route (in CA anyway) is kidding themselves.

Damn. We missed out on free butterfish sushi… if only MarinaPrime would take the bet.

There's nothing like eating butterfish sushi at a trolls expense during a resession.

There’s nothing like eating butterfish sushi at a trolls expense during a resession.

Now I worry that good sushi restaurants may close during the next recession. :(

I think good restaurants truly deserve Fed bailout packages.

maybe in areas where land is cheap they might be a viable option?

This only holds true is you don't believe prices will fall significantly....otherwise you are kidding yourself.....nothing worse than waking up one day and saying...."wow, I could have had that instead".

ScottC:
"You’re either on the outside track, the rat race, or the inside track, the ownership circle."

Robert DeNiro (in Meet the Parents):
Greg, with the knowledge you've been given, you are now on the inside of what I like to call... the Byrnes family 'circle of trust'. I keep nothing from you, you keep nothing from me... and round and round we go."

Real estate is in no way analogous to stocks

Stocks are assets (they pay dividends) but homes are liabilities to most people (they require mortgage payments). Of course homes are not stocks.

This only holds true is you don’t believe prices will fall significantly….otherwise you are kidding yourself…..nothing worse than waking up one day and saying….”wow, I could have had that instead”.

The implied land price is home value minus replacement costs. Since replacement costs are more or less stable, one can imagine the fall in land price when the housing bubbl bursts!

homes are liabilities to most people (they require mortgage payments).

...don't forget all the maintenance and upkeep, taxes and insurance!

The implied land price is home value minus replacement costs. Since replacement costs are more or less stable, one can imagine the fall in land price when the housing bubble bursts!

Excellent point, Peter P. "Housing Bubble" really means "Land Bubble".

"these houses look pretty cool! "

Cindy, you might enjoy this links as well:

http://tinyurl.com/82q2j
http://tinyurl.com/36cog

As I have predicted, DQNews is saying

Indicators of market distress are still largely absent. Foreclosure rates are low, down payment sizes are stable and there have been no significant shifts in market mix, DataQuick reported.

Do I get a prize? :)

The is the full article: Continued sales slowdown in Bay Area, appreciation flat

dqnews.com/RRBay1105.shtm

We are way past the peak... and most people are still looking up.

"We look at today's market as normalizing. Everybody seems to have gotten used to the records set last year and the year before. The fact is that last month was the third-strongest October since we started keeping records in 1988. It was about twenty percent above average," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

Ok folks,....it's safe to get in now....the market is normalizing!

Robert DeNiro (in Meet the Parents)

Good,...now we know where he gets his pep talk from......I'm still waiting for him to answer my question.

Is it always a good time to buy?

or better than that.....

Is it ever a bad time to buy?

October’s market seemed to think recession was coming. Now it looks like another boom. GOOG at 400. What a change in mere two weeks.

GOOG is just one stock right? SP, DJ, and ND are all in trading ranges AFAIK.

Nice new blog: anotherfuckedborrower.blogspot.com/

Another F@CKED Borrower
This Blog is the work of somebody 'in' the mortgage industry that is dedicated to educating people on how-not-to-become Another F@CKED BORROWER!! From now on, they will be called AFB's or FB's for short. Many of these people had NO business buying a house...but that is what happens when people get wrapped up in the mania of easy money. Now lets have a look at ANOTHER F@CKED BORROWER!

am posting for the first time here though i have browsing this site for a while... did you guys see the discrepancy between these 2 articles...

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay1105.shtm

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/classifieds/real_estate/13194043.htm

they seem to have the same sources but completely differing message and even differing facts (on the median price for santa clara county)?

what gives???

ok i get it... mercurynews is quoting the median prices for only SFMs while dq is reporting the median price overall..... but still very different messages though.

ok i get it… mercurynews is quoting the median prices for only SFMs while dq is reporting the median price overall….. but still very different messages though.

I think we should only quote prices for Google employee residences. :)

But there are still bubble denyers. There are those still hoping for a spring bounce or whatever it is they think it going to help them sell their overpriced $hitbox.

Let them deny. Reality is not known for its kindness.

What I am wondering is, were there this many denyers during the dot.bomb days...?

Yes. I was (and still am) working in IT and can recall being surrounded/pressured by all the amateur "investors" around me to 'get in the game while you still can', it's a new Paradigm, etc... I can recall walking around the office in late '99 and seeing all the eTrade streamers on overyone's monitors. There practically wasn't an employee down to the lowliest janitor who didn't have a substantial portion of his/her retirement in the Dot.coms. Any attempts I made at the time to question this investment 'strategy' were quickly and harshly rebuffed.

Is this just typical mania behavior?

Yes. Read Schiller for good historical examples from previous asset/credit bubbles.

The ranks of Bubble-Deniers grow ever thinner, per Motley Fool:

"Housing Experts Change Their Tune"
tinyurl.com/bqml9

I’m all for $$$ going back into stocks …. it usually means $$$ going out of real estate, generally speaking with not many exceptions ….

I rather have those $$$ going back into Ty beanie babies... they are so cute!

"...can recall being surrounded/pressured by all the amateur “investors” around me to ‘get in the game while you still can’, it’s a new Paradigm, etc… Any attempts I made at the time to question this investment ’strategy’ were quickly and harshly rebuffed.

Now doesn't the present situation feel so familiar? I actually had a dot-com brokerage business back then, and you could smell the winds of change months before it hit the news. It was so damn obvious then, and so deja vu now.

Yet, despite recent history, why do people fail to see the connection? Try explaining what seems so obvious, and they look at you like you're Gomer Pyle trying to explain quantum physics.

ND does show some characteristics of an uptrend. However, if you look at the bigger picture, the "bull run" is hardly impressive.

Sure it swings bigger than this all the time, but this time it felt a bit faster, since I was actually watching.

Stocks swing all the time. This is why people swing-trade. :)

This is totally OT, but take a gander at what slipped by my dock today:

http://tinyurl.com/8s7vf

There were two of these gunboats, and they appeared to be looking for a watercraft for over an hour, transversing all the local waterways. Who's out there...Al Qaeda on a sailboat?

Mind you, we're about 2 miles inland from the bay.

Just looking at the indices acutally doesn’t give the swing the full credit it deserves. Basically stocks like AMD, AMZN, BRCM all dropped 10% or more in October on the earnings day, whether they beat or missed expectation. Now they’ve all bounced back or even made new high.

Huh?

"I rather have those $$$ going back into Ty beanie babies… they are so cute! "

LOL. I'm afraid that was some of my family members' sole investment vehicle.

Peter P, I thought you were going on vacation? Please don't tell me you're hanging on on this blog from Hawaii or something.

Oh, and I have "inherited" a vast beenie baby collection from a relative, apparently to fund my childrens' college education or something. I'd better hurry up and get those soon-to-be-valuable-again pieces of crap out of my parents' musty basement.

There was apparently a macro fear in Oct. and now that fear is dissipating, justifiably or not.

Probably. The uptrend appears to be minor though, although ND is making higher highs and higher lows.

This just in:

Ameriquest Capital Corp. Lays Off 10% of Staff
"Subprime giant Ameriquest Capital Corp., Orange, Calif., late Thursday announced a 10% companywide layoff, excluding two divisions: wholesaler Argent Mortgage, and its auto finance division"

nationalmortgagenews.com/
(unfortunately, full article requires registration)

Ameriquest Capital Corp. Lays Off 10% of Staff

Looks like AG's money fountain is losing pressure!

Anyone else see the New Residential Construction report from the Commerce Dept. just released? It contains many big negative numbers, some of which are y-o-y changes!

So I guess my October prediction was just off by a few weeks. :)

There are usually far more bubble denyers than in the stock market because by definition, all RE buyers are doing margin trading so the potential loss is more ouchy for them.

When the RE market is 10% down, you typically see a bunch of bubblesitters jump in thinking that it is bottom, and then you'll see another round of popping. So don't get surprised if a bunch of naysayers on this site jumping in next spring because they run out of patience.

To come out ahead in the RE game, you need incredible patience, years of patience to wait for the bottom. Sellers who sell in a down market are usually people who have no other choices, so their reservation price is next to 0.

For East Bay, it already peaked around summer. Some Peninsula and West Valley properties are still rising, although most of them are flat or slightly down since October.

So don’t get surprised if a bunch of naysayers on this site jumping in next spring because they run out of patience.

I highly doubt anyone who has been following this bubble for so many years will jump at 10%. However, there may be some really good deals here and there when the foreclosures start to blossom like spring flowers....but I myself may wait another 5 years if I have to......it's all about the fundamental value.

So don’t get surprised if a bunch of naysayers on this site jumping in next spring because they run out of patience.

Well, if they lower prices pre-emptively to1997 level I may jump in even though median prices may be down only 10%. ;)

So don’t get surprised if a bunch of naysayers on this site jumping in next spring because they run out of patience.

Personally, I enjoy the challenge and excitement that comes from catching falling knives! Too bad I'm running out of fingers, though... :-(