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Bellingham Bill
2014 Mar 25, 9:32am
>well significantly higher than they are today.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=uwq
to 5% maybe.
but the ten-year going high will require belief that a recovery-on-recovery is coming.
absent said double recovery, rates will collapse again, since we are in a black hole of debt.
Heraclitusstudent
2014 Mar 25, 9:49am
absent said double recovery, rates will collapse again, since we are in a black hole of debt.
The situation now is not like 2007 in the US.
Your graph is flat relative to GDP since the crisis.
A lot of the debt was absorbed by the Feds - where it doesn't cause any issue.
It's certainly possible that we fall back. Maybe higher rates cause something to blow up.
But it is also very possible that we do get the double recovery you are talking about, with rates progressively higher.
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T019-C000-S002-2014-interest-rate-outlook.html?si=1
the return on ten-year Treasuries has climbed more than one-half percentage point over the past 12 months, to 2.7%, and Kiplinger’s expects yields to reach 3.5% by the end of 2014.