patrick.net

JH says

Who clicks enough internet ads to give Facebook $642 million in 3 months?

Robots. Malware. Viruses.

Yes, it is fraud. Yes, it will ultimately be revealed because software on the client's (the company that bought the ads) keeps track of how many clicks lead to a sale.

Yes, Facebook's stock will plummet when the fraud is finally accepted as fraud. Facebook might even get sued, but the loss in revenue will be more important.

Dan8267 says

Facebook's stock will plummet when the fraud is finally accepted as fraud. Facebook might even get sued, but the loss in revenue will be more important.

Have you shorted Facebook yet?

smaulgld says

I have always disliked Facebook but I set up an account a month or two ago after watching the video linked above. I spent $10 on Facebook and clearly got fake/paid likes.

How advertisers think there is any value is beyond me

They did piss off their advertisers a bit. The idea behind Likes was that you'd build a list of people who would receive relevant postings from you. So Facebook encouraged people to buy ad campaigns to buy Likes, so that they could build up their fan base to whom they could market.

After a lot of advertisers bought Likes, then Facebook changed their algorithms so that your postings only go to a single digit percentage of the people who Liked you (often referred to as "organic reach"). So now all those Likes you purchased are mostly worthless, and you have to purchase more and more ad campaigns in order to reach your core audience. I believe the number now is less than 4% of people who Like you will see your posts -- long-term, it will be 0%.

The ad effectiveness of Facebook is also in somewhat in question by people who study these things.

But they keep minting money, so what do I know? Clearly they are able to sell people on targeting and frequency, even though there probably isn't much good data on ROI.

zzyzzx says

Have you shorted Facebook yet?

Shorting involves timing to work. Knowing that Facebook will plummet isn't going to help you make money if you don't know when down to at least a month.

We all knew that housing was going to collapsed, but if you had shorted in 2004, you would have lost your shirt. When gambling on the stock market, timing is everything.

CrazyMan says

People still use Facebook?

Bots do. People, not so much.

Dan8267 says

CrazyMan says

People still use Facebook?

Bots do. People, not so much.

My mom does. Which is 1 reason I do not.

JH says

My mom does. Which is 1 reason I do not.

And so repeated 30 million Millennials. Wasn't this phenomenon on South Park?

Dan8267 says

Shorting involves timing to work. Knowing that Facebook will plummet isn't going to help you make money if you don't know when down to at least a month.

Longer dated puts can help, but aren't perfect, as you said. You can always sell the put early if the drop happens earlier and never exercise it yourself. Of course, you can also lose 100% of your investment if it's not long-dated enough.

New Renter says

turtledove says

Flirting with lots of guys to appear more attractive to the one you want. And when he comes around, you have that brief moment where you think you've accomplished something with potential... and then just when you have him where you think you want him, he opens his mouth and gives new meaning to the words "smart as a rock."

All that advertising, so little yield.

Well you reap what you sow.

The point is it's a very unsophisticated marketing tactic. Very high school. "Look how popular I am. Therefore, I must also soon attract meaningful relationships." Yet Facebook promotes it like a valid marketing strategy to raise one's profile and increase business. Quantity isn't substance.

turtledove says

New Renter says

turtledove says

Flirting with lots of guys to appear more attractive to the one you want. And when he comes around, you have that brief moment where you think you've accomplished something with potential... and then just when you have him where you think you want him, he opens his mouth and gives new meaning to the words "smart as a rock."

All that advertising, so little yield.

Well you reap what you sow.

The point is it's a very unsophisticated marketing tactic. Very high school. "Look how popular I am. Therefore, I must also soon attract meaningful relationships." Yet Facebook promotes it like a valid marketing strategy to raise one's profile and increase business. Quantity isn't substance.

Right, which is why I don't understand why anyone would consider Facebook likes as a serious metric for an item's value.

zzyzzx says

Dan8267 says

Facebook's stock will plummet when the fraud is finally accepted as fraud. Facebook might even get sued, but the loss in revenue will be more important.

Have you shorted Facebook yet?

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"