patrick.net

She is actually a real estate agent, but does not know the market here. She was looking at a Morgan Hill home that was listed as $575,000, and they sent a counter offer to her at $640,000, so she said screw it.

I guess they play less games in So Cal.

I will pass this on to her. Maybe fall will have more choices.

I have three coworkers who have purchased homes recently (two SFH in Fremont and Alum Rock) and a condo in San Jose.

Apparently there is a sucker born every minute.

So go ahead, buy your homes.

IMO wait.

Buy, if you don't care about loosing some money in short term. Long term 10 to 15 years, it does not matter.

Okay, what the heck? My cousin walked away from the house above because the counter was so much higher, but now they called two weeks later randomly asking if her old offer still stands? Why all the game playing?

Will do. Thank you. I think the market here must really be it's own beast. She was honestly surprised by how different it is here.

Within ten years, even the slummiest SFH 3BR 1BA in San Jose will run $1,000,000 or more.

When investors own all the houses, the market becomes quite different.

She offered lower like you said. Sounds like she will get it at lower than her original offer. I wonder why they countered so high in the first place? Weird.

exfatguy says

She offered lower like you said.

Not a good time to buy.

Does she want a really expensive hobby?

exfatguy says

Within ten years, even the slummiest SFH 3BR 1BA in San Jose will run $1,000,000 or more.

State taxes keep going up, and water continues to become less plentiful.
Tahoe keeps getting less snow.
Alternative lifestyles which have drawn people to the SFBay continue to be more and more accepted in other places.

Already businesses are fleeing for Texas, Colorado, and the Northwest. Meanwhile the Northeast and the eastern seaboard are even keeled and more sustainable living solutions.

In 10 years will people be fighting over postage stamps so they can pay 10% state tax and a penalty for property tax on new homes? Will buisnesses continue to try to start themselves in this area, when there is suitable talent in other, less expensive locations?

Good LUCK with that.

This isn't even considering a huge earthquake, which constant tremors around the area are more frequently predicting.

hrhjuliet says

Maybe a random insight into her long plight to buy a home, but I think there is something in it; family and community still has value.

Which is a great illustration of how the banks became successful. Associate debt with family and community. Done.

But, serious, why would taking on a huge debt be about family and community? It's like the family and community people discover in times of disaster. You're in debt for life, I'm in debt for life, so let's smile and have a BBQ.

hrhjuliet said: Because if there ever is a revolution, war or a crash - which isn't out of the question in a few years looking at history and how terribly cyclical it is- then at least she will be close to all her family now.
Did you tell her to plant yams? She'll thank you for it later.

This is hilarious...all these indices are jacked up!

From the source article:

But the Case-Shiller Indices, which are based on average home prices, tend to overshoot the change in direction of home prices, both on the upside and on the downside. Simply stated, the continued appreciation of some housing segments, for example, high-end homes in San Francisco, or distressed sales in the southwest, tends to mask the fact that HPA in many parts of the country has slowed or may even have reversed direction altogether.

http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/30215-christopher-whalen-are-us-home-prices-falling

So, update. My cousin got into contract and pulled out at the last moment. She cited septic issues and a independent report that there was a previous meth lab two blocks away.

In reality, she saw a bunch of homes that were far better that recently came on the market for way less.

What a nightmare. I would hate to play all these yoyo games. Yikes. It should be more cut and dry.

she should rent for a while.

hrhjuliet says

In reality, she saw a bunch of homes that were far better that recently came on the market for way less.

I am seeing more and more listing going off market. Tide may be turning around, until then keep believing the redfin graphs posted here. :)

Carey is holding at $450k -- do I hear $460k? The rise was meteoric. At these price levels, I think its safe to say GRM blows up. So you're left with organic demand from people who want to (and can afford to) buy a home.

This thread illustrates my main problem with buying a house. The discussion includes phrases like "less than listing" "inventory" and the investment aspects of what way prices are heading.

Someone who cares about their financial well-being asks, "What is the price and how much money do I have today?" For how long will this price mean being in debt? How much pressure will I experience because this payment means making more money in the future, making the same amount of money for the rest of my life or spending all the money I currently have on one thing?

hrhjuliet says

Okay, what the heck? My cousin walked away from the house above because the counter was so much higher, but now they called two weeks later randomly asking if her old offer still stands? Why all the game playing?

Typical ploy... ever since late 90s the realtors cook up fake multiple offers..

and of course the media is all to pleased to push it in the news as a fact when its not... its all a lie.

FunTime says

This thread illustrates my main problem with buying a house. The discussion includes phrases like "less than listing" "inventory" and the investment aspects of what way prices are heading.

Someone who cares about their financial well-being asks, "What is the price and how much money do I have today?" For how long will this price mean being in debt? How much pressure will I experience because this payment means making more money in the future, making the same amount of money for the rest of my life or spending all the money I currently have on one thing?

No, people who care ask both sets of questions.

hrhjuliet said: In reality, she saw a bunch of homes that were far better that recently came on the market for way less.
Redfin shows inventory in Morgan Hill up over 50% from last year (and 25% month-to-month). The bubble is pushing out from the urban core -- will be interesting to see if suburban inventory can stem the tide. Last time around Casey Serin had others had access to 'easy money' which sucked up the inventory and boosted prices far past where they should have gone in the hinterlands.

once/if the excess reserve funds start getting lent out gold could be a very good investment.

The chart below details what's important.
I am in the bay area, and I desire my own home, almost more than anything else (new car. .. etc.)
However, the two times I though about buying a home, 1999 and 2011, I wasn't in the position to purchase one, and I think you know the rest.

This graph is up to Q2 2013. So it's even more skewed. This graph is a collection of the entire US. The bay area is more extreme.

I will buy when the blue line hits the pink line again. These lines will intersect again, even if the pink line has to increase. But people don't rent on credit, so if the pink line ever does, it will be because of inflation or income parity.

Case closed.

donjumpsuit says

I will buy when the blue line hits the pink line again.

You will have to wait till your retirement!

bubblesitter says

You will have to wait till your retirement!

Or the next earthquake.

donjumpsuit says

Or the next earthquake.

Ah, OK. I forgot our million $ shacks are built on strong foundations.

Back to topic.

The slowdown in May is interesting since it is usually the hottest month. Less people go to Open Houses and fewer number of offers (2-5 instead of over 10). First half of Jun show improvement though. Meanwhile, stock market makes another ATH and beaten tech and biotech stocks (e.g. NFLX, TSLA, CELG) are back in vogue.

It's different this time, and it only takes one buyer out of the possible seven billion on Earth.

Buy now or... er, if you haven't bought by now, you missed your chance years ago.

exfatguy says

It's different this time, and it only takes one buyer out of the possible seven billion on Earth.

Buy now or... er, if you haven't bought by now, you missed your chance years ago.

Yep, buy now and be satisfied that you won a lotto or be dejected as looser for not winning one.

Could it be that every dip (e.g. caused by nationwide RE decline) in Bay area's RE prices is a good buying opportunity? Well so long SV remains the centre of tech innovation. If not SV, where?

hanera says

Could it be that every dip (e.g. caused by nationwide RE decline) in Bay area's RE prices is a good buying opportunity? Well so long SV remains the centre of tech innovation. If not SV, where?

im sure they said the same about Route 128.... the other Silicon Valley you might of heard about before its demise.

thomaswong.1986 says

im sure they said the same about Route 128.... the other Silicon Valley you might of heard about before its demise.

San Jose, Santa Clara,los gatos,Saratoga,SUNNYVALE, etc.....have all become, and always have been shitholes built on the premise that who ever the current authority is/was (Mchenry...etc)... Would be able to sell out Their constituency for cheap box seats at the latest massive financial windfall development (in their own favor of course) at the cost of the people they are supposed to represent) these elitist swine believed they could swindle, convince and buy media time to nail the box shut...are of course....the actual problem...at this authors opinion. The real problem for these self proclaimed NOBLES of society is no different from the so called NOBLES in the not so distant past who sold out thier own people to invading hordes in order to save their own hides.

"The course of your fate is yours alone, do the right thing, for the right reasons, not just because you think you might get caught doing the wrong thing, for your own self centered reasons".

Sensei Mac Coll

RentingForHalfTheCost says

big ass whipe

Wtf is a whipe?

corntrollio says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

big ass whipe

Wtf is a whipe?

Sorry, I forget some people spend all day on their computers.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=whipe

indigenous says

once/if the excess reserve funds start getting lent out gold could be a very good investment.

If money starts being lent, it means the economy picks up, rates rise and gold gets slaughtered.