patrick.net

Miners are just ok; they are usually higher beta to gold. I think if you want to play gold or silver, just buy futures. You get leverage and don't need to deal with mismanagement in some of these companies.

The issue is that futures are a corrupted market. There are approximately 92 claims per ounce of available gold in the futures market.

If I'm trying to swing for the fences, I'll stick with miners.

Facebooksux says

The issue is that futures are a corrupted market.

If futures are corrupted, what makes you think that the gold miners are not? Most of these companies borrowed money to dehedge themselves at the top of the market. I would say that was pretty stupid if not corrupt.

ABX went up to $55 during the crash, it's now at $18.

The problem is, Gold went up to $1850 during the crash, and now sits artificially low at $1300.

All these companies say it takes $1100 to 1250 to pull an ounce of gold from the earth.

Gold is being massively manipulated. Nations like China are misrepresenting their gold holdings, and people with real money are using it to buy real gold.

It doesn't matter how corrupt the miners are! The market isn't about logic, it's a popularity and rumor contest.

If financial markets get uneasy, gold goes up to $1500, or something happens where the current physical gold levels are verified as being misrepresented (which will also increase it's price) these miners stocks will explode.

I picked ABX because they did have a big news item that dropped the price, and they are a solid, old, company with many more mines that are dormant than those that are producing because of price. Also ABX gives the highest dividend.

For what ever it's worth in short form
I'm more of an odds player and my numbers say gold has not yet seen its low along with the interest rates heading lower... The $$$ has high probability of getting stronger then most will be prepared for once the S&P actually goes into a real retest mode ($2070). If the facts (price) in that process hold true to my #s and concept the mining companies will follow gold less than $1000 along with silver @ 13-14…. Money flow from the equities will go straight into $$$ cash…. Once that process is over Gold and Silver and mining companies will be ripe to buy…

WHat do you guys think of GDJX?

Facebooksux says

WHat do you guys think of GDJX?

It very much depends on your trading methodology... In and out how are you thinking to play it...

donjumpsuit says

All these companies say it takes $1100 to 1250 to pull an ounce of gold from the earth.

Mining giant Barrick Gold published a slew of stats with its latest quarterly earnings announcement. They also included the cost of mining an ounce of gold at each of their sites.

As you can see below, the cost of mining an ounce of gold for Barrick ranges from $333 to $3,764 per ounce.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-cost-of-mining-gold-2013-6

On their web site they have a breakdown of costs and production output for each mine. From their numbers it costs them on average $808/oz to mine their gold.

Total output from these mines is 207 tons (6.05 million ounces) which represents about 7.1% of total world output for 2013.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/20/gold-mine-output-idUSL5N0J44T720131120

Gold production could start moderating in 2015.

"That's the point when you will start to see some cost-cutting closures," Metals Focus analyst Oliver Heathman said. "Depending on the mines, they can sustain a period of high grading. The bulk of mines are still profitable on a cash cost basis at $1,000 an ounce, but not on a prolonged basis."

Data from Newmont:

http://www.newmont.com/about/company-glance

All-in sustaining cost of $1,104 per ounce
5.5 million ounces in 2013

Data from AngloGold Ashanti

http://www.anglogoldashanti.co.za/Additional/Press/2014/Fourth+quarter+results.htm
All-in sustaining cost of $1,015 per ounce
4.1 million ounces in 2013

Facebooksux says

WHat do you guys think of GDJX?

If you pull the charts (5yr+)up on GDJX and consider the volume sense the beginning of the year the volume has risen considerably yet price has stayed tight for the most part with no real momentum. There is short and long term resistance just above the last high and due to the environment of the equities market I give GDJX a low probability of breaking to the upside 33% +/- the same odds I put on gold itself.

I would need considerable confirmation of price heading higher before I would risk locking my capitol up. I don't see anything technically or fundamentally that would give the momentum to break above in this environment although it certainly could happen.

In that case I would be seriously looking for a reason to close at 50+/-, if upside is on the plate it needs to do it soon or the odds of that happening becomes less and less. The dollars to accomplish that momentum are still in the equities and locked up in the RE investment market and it will take many of those dollars to get the job done. Not to mention of coarse those equities/RE investments "will be going" dollars prior to becoming gold investments.

I do believe gold is at tangent in general and we will know if I'm right or wrong very soon.

Technically speaking, since the big move XAU/USD (daily charts) on 6/19 of $45+/- there was actually a confirmed sell signals 6/25 and 2 supporting signals on 6/30, 7/3 that you made the right decision based on daily. Simple odds of either the technical or fundamentals are not on gold breaking up from the down trend in any meaningful way.

http://www.gtUfqFxMhiM

Between yesterday and today's price action in gold/mining co. are these still at a speculation buy price point?

I don't know about exact price points. I'm not really a trader. I'm buying them because there is no other answer to upcoming future economic crises except gold/silver/natural resources.