patrick.net

a lot of ph.D's and their Nobel prize winning theories on the downfall of European countries. a lot of thoughts (and fantasies) are put into those theories but mine is the best and the truth: they are slowly running out of colonial loot.

European countries invaded and looted other continents and kept the resources and technologies (developed using said free/robbed resources) to themselves.

it started with America. due to geographical luck, Europeans got to America first and the free slaves and natural resources jumped started the Industrial Revolution in England. then the robbing began.

robbing someone else was much easier back in the day since there were no nukes and they had the firepower. but these days even Indians have nukes (LOL) physical robbery can no longer be done. but there clever ways (i.e petrodollar, RE bubble scams).

but the elites have betrayed the peasants giving away the technologies in exchange for cheap labor/profit. now you need to ask WHY now? again it's because the elites themselves are running out of colonial loot. it makes perfect sense.

now only hard work and intelligence prevail. China and Asian countries better build a lot of nukes because when the pigs are hungry, they will go hunting (or maybe scavenging) this time? if history is of any indication of the future.

Mark D says

they are slowly running out of colonial loot.

Imperialism has been gone for quite a while, that does not add up?

I think it is more a growth of socialist characteristics in those countries, in other words they are eating the seed corn.

thunderlips11 says

Very conceivable the most socialist country in the world today is the US.

If you think Mark D says

they are slowly running out of colonial loot.

What colonial loot?
How long has it been since Europeans lost (or got rid) of colonies?
What loot were they taking out of North America? What about from African countries?

America is looting as much more today than anything Europe ever did. Look at what Chevron is doing in Africa, or Hedge funds in Argentina.

It's BS. Colonies are a huge cost and probably paying for themselves at best. And they resulted in huge immigration from countries that now speak their languages. Bad idea.

indigenous says

I think it is more a growth of socialist characteristics in those countries

If so, explain why France (very socialist) has a bigger economy than Britain (quite liberal).

Answer: because Britain valiantly decided to get rid of all its industries up-front and replace it by toxic finance, while France is managing the slow death of its own. France still has a car industry for example.

Heraclitusstudent says

And they resulted in huge immigration from countries that now speak their languages. Bad idea.

LOL, I hear ya.

But England did pretty good with its colonial empire. Yesterday via reddit I learned this happened:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_occupation_of_Manila

sheez, ~200 years later the Japanese do the same and now they're the bad guys : )

China, same thing. Especially the case in the mideast. What the Europeans did there stunk so much it still stinks a century later.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calouste_Gulbenkian

indigenous says

the most socialist country in the world today is the US.

Bellingham Bill says

Heraclitusstudent says

And they resulted in huge immigration from countries that now speak their languages. Bad idea.

LOL, I hear ya.

But England did pretty good with its colonial empire. Yesterday via reddit I learned this happened:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_occupation_of_Manila

sheez, ~200 years later the Japanese do the same and now they're the bad guys : )

China, same thing. Especially the case in the mideast. What the Europeans did there stunk so much it still stinks a century later.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calouste_Gulbenkian

In the good old days conquering distant lands made you a "Great Empire"
Today the same thing makes you an "Evil Imperialist"

Strategist says

In the good old days conquering distant lands made you a "Great Empire"

Today the same thing makes you an "Evil Imperialist"

Those were the good ole days! Conquering and pillaging... Just taking all the resources and enslaving whoever... Those were the days when you got something for winning. Now, you get nothing but some moral obligation. Then you have to twist yourself into knots figuring out how to get the loot while still appearing to have the moral high ground. If only things could be simple again.

turtledove says

Strategist says

In the good old days conquering distant lands made you a "Great Empire"

Today the same thing makes you an "Evil Imperialist"

Those were the good ole days! Conquering and pillaging... Just taking all the resources and enslaving whoever... Those were the days when you got something for winning. Now, you get nothing but some moral obligation. Then you have to twist yourself into knots figuring out how to get the loot while still appearing to have the moral high ground. If only things could be simple again.

And they became immortalized heroes with titles like "great"
Alexander the Great.....Genghiz Khan......Napolean Bonaparte....Ceaser....
Prophet Mohammad.....Peter the Great.
And look what poor American Presidents get accused of...baby killers....imperialists....its the oil.....regime change, and they did not even get to rape, plunder and pillage. Such a pity.

Heraclitusstudent says

If so, explain why France (very socialist) has a bigger economy than Britain (quite liberal).

They are almost equal?

Heraclitusstudent says

explain why France (very socialist) has a bigger economy than Britain

That would be because they sell more stuff than Britain.

Bellingham Bill says

Considering that the US numbers don't include public transfers to the po folk. And I would be suspicious that they show numbers after taxes for the rich folk.

But remember this is for a country with 300+ million people. With what 11 or 12 million on permanent disability. They say that one way or another 50% of the people are dependent on government to one degree or another.

How many countries can say that their government supports 150 million to one degree or another?

indigenous says

Heraclitusstudent says

If so, explain why France (very socialist) has a bigger economy than Britain (quite liberal).

They are almost equal?

Heraclitusstudent says

explain why France (very socialist) has a bigger economy than Britain

That would be because they sell more stuff than Britain.

There is not much difference between GDP and population of France/UK
California is the 8th largest economy in the world, and soon we will be overtaking France.
We should declare our Independence from the USA.

Strategist says

We should declare our Independence from the USA.

But can we declare our independence from Sacramento?

indigenous says

Strategist says

We should declare our Independence from the USA.

But can we declare our independence from Sacramento?

hhmmmm. I forgot about the losers up there.

Ask any Keynsian - yes we can outsource our way to prosperity! This is why most of the Keynsians in decision making positions have degrees in Political Science, Art and Humanities.

Aside.

I had a visit over the weekend of an Electrical Engineering professor. He teaches a lot of foreigners (obviously).

Recently a Chinese PHD student graduated, and went back to China, and he told my friend " You'd better be learning Chinese" before leaving.

True story.

Entitlemented says

You'd better be learning Chinese" before leaving.

True story.

Very arrogant of him...

indigenous says

How many countries can say that their government supports 150 million to one degree or another?

you . . . have a point : )

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=FHk

shows per-capita gov't spending is $24,000 or $2000/mo .

But to count DOD as part of socialism is stretching things, since socialism requires public provision of wealth, and there's no wealth being created there.

Now that, that's a remarkable graph.

Strategist says

California is the 8th largest economy in the world, and soon we will be overtaking France.

Very arrogant.
I'm counting CA is 10th at $1.95T

1 United States 16,244,600
2 China 8,358,400
3 Japan 5,960,180
4 Germany 3,425,956
5 France 2,611,221
6 UK 2,471,600
7 Brazil 2,254,109
8 Russia 2,029,812
9 Italy 2,013,392

And soon India will overtake you.

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

California is the 8th largest economy in the world, and soon we will be overtaking France.

Very arrogant.

I'm counting CA is 10th at $1.95T

1 United States 16,244,600

2 China 8,358,400

3 Japan 5,960,180

4 Germany 3,425,956

5 France 2,611,221

6 UK 2,471,600

7 Brazil 2,254,109

8 Russia 2,029,812

9 Italy 2,013,392

And soon India will overtake you.

Old data.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California

We are #8 folks. We will soon conquer France, then UK.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California

Eventually the top economies will be:
China
India
USA
EU

Strategist says

Old data.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_California

The link says $2.05 trillion in 2013.

- The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Italy was worth 2071.31 billion US dollars in 2013.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp
- The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Russia was worth 2096.78 billion US dollars in 2013
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp
- Google lists Italy at $2.19 Trillion US dollars at current prices - 2011

But anyway, you might over take these 2.
But who knows what might happen before you overtake France?

Bellingham Bill says

But to count DOD as part of socialism is stretching things

They certainly would have in the USSR or China?

Strategist says

Eventually the top economies will be:

China

India

USA

EU

I would not count on China being number 1, they have some major hurdles to get though.

indigenous says

Strategist says

Eventually the top economies will be:

China

India

USA

EU

I would not count on China being number 1, they have some major hurdles to get though.

India
China
EU
USA

How does that look? Eventually it will all be based on population.

Mark D says

they are slowly running out of colonial loot.

Which reinforces my statement that Italy has gone steadily downhill since the fall of the Roman Empire.

zzyzzx says

How does that look? Eventually it will all be based on population.

Don't know but China will have a demographic problem that is huge compared to Japan.

They have devalued their Yuan for so long and deprived their people of so much they Have to revalue their currency to create their own consumption.

If they pull an FDR on this they are fucked. They need to create a middle class.

The other potential problem will be war as that is the usual bone head solution that the US uses.

Any of you know how game theory applies to this?

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Eventually the top economies will be:

China

India

USA

EU

I told you to start learning Mandarin...

If they want to be #1 they will need to learn the #1 language - English.

indigenous says

Don't know but China will have a demographic problem that is huge compared to Japan.

They have devalued their Yuan for so long and deprived their people of so much they Have to revalue their currency to create their own consumption.

If they pull an FDR on this they are fucked. They need to create a middle class.

Eventually they will have a demographic problem, after they get up there.
They buy more cars then we do. Looks like a booming middle class to me.

indigenous says

The other potential problem will be war as that is the usual bone head solution that the US uses.

Any of you know how game theory applies to this?

I don't think there will be major wars besides the looney Mid East and Africa.
Game theory......Yeah I remember taking a class on that. That's all I remember.

Strategist says

Eventually they will have a demographic problem, after they get up there.

They buy more cars then we do. Looks like a booming middle class to me.

Got a link on that?

Game theory might be handing in understanding the likelihood of war?

indigenous says

Don't know but China will have a demographic problem that is huge compared to Japan.

distribution wise, I don't see the problem. In 2050 their median age will be what Japan's is now, ~45, with their dependency ratio also rising to just about what Japan's is now (~60).

Japan's dependency ratio is going to rise to near 100, i.e. parity, almost 1 dependent per working-age person by 2050. China and Japan are nothing alike here.

Size-wise, sure, China is going to be big. But not much bigger than it is now, thankfully for them. China is so big it boggles the mind, growth is almost stopped but they still may add another 100M mouths to feed.

indigenous says

Strategist says

Eventually they will have a demographic problem, after they get up there.

They buy more cars then we do. Looks like a booming middle class to me.

Got a link on that?

Game theory might be handing in understanding the likelihood of war?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aE.x_r_l9NZE

indigenous says

They need to create a middle class

They have one -- Apple's sales in China are 2X that of their Japanese sales, and that's with Apple owning the Japanese phone market -- but another 1 billion people with an American standard of living ain't going to happen, or god help us if it does, since their consumption will come out of OUR current consumption.

This is a finite world for a lot of things; hell, we might even be seeing Peak Food right now for all we know.

I don't pretend to understand China, never been there never want to go there.

But knowing all the utter shit they've been through over the past 200 hundred years, man. The Japanese invasion '37-'45, horrific as it was, wasn't the worst they've gone through. I wish them the best, but damn it's not in our own national interest for them to take our place in the world.

I'm already afraid of seeing more food inflation as the yuan gets stronger and sucks more of our ag production over to them, taking food from our mouths as it were.

shows some of the FX shenanigans have been rolled back. China has a very large trade surplus still, though, indicating the necessity for greater strengthening. How much, couldn't tell ya.

The yuan might have to triple to 2 again, like what happened with the yen 1973-1988, but the global economy could handle a nation of 100M+ getting so much more buying power like that, especially since the Indians and Chinese were still largely sitting things out in the 1980s.

Now, things are different.

zzyzzx says

Which reinforces my statement that Italy has gone steadily downhill since the fall of the Roman Empire.

You never heard of the renaissance?

Bellingham Bill says

A demographic problem: whether the population keeps growing or shrinks, that's a demographic problem.

Bellingham Bill says

distribution wise, I don't see the problem.

Me neither by looking at those graphs. But I have read that it will be a problem. Just like I have read that it is a problem in Japan? It does not appear the one child policy made much of difference in any particular age bracket.

Bellingham Bill says

This is a finite world for a lot of things; hell, we might even be seeing Peak Food right now for all we know.

That is Malthus BS, he said that world growth would be constrained by food production. Or course he was projecting this through 1800 crop yields.

The whole idea of scarcity comes about through this idea of peak oil or peak what ever. Technology changes the peak.

The other thing that needs to be considered is that human knowledge grows geometrically.

The important thing to do is allow that nascent change be allowed to grow as that is where the solutions come from.

indigenous says

Bellingham Bill says

This is a finite world for a lot of things; hell, we might even be seeing Peak Food right now for all we know.

That is Malthus BS, he said that world growth would be constrained by food production. Or course he was projecting this through 1800 crop yields.

The whole idea of scarcity comes about through this idea of peak oil or peak what ever. Technology changes the peak.

The other thing that needs to be considered is that human knowledge grows geometrically.

The important thing to do is allow that nascent change be allowed to grow as that is where the solutions come from.

Right on dude.

Strategist says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aE.x_r_l9NZE

That is a trip I did not know the Chinese bought that many cars.