For estimating the future, lots of folks examine the past.
If a price history is counted in U.S. dollars, you should adjust for inflation.
Take a good look at these instructive track records ... and do your own thinking!
STOCK MARKET, Dow Jones Industrial Average
Wall Street Journal, 1999
Up to date, by me ***A severe roller-coaster! Huge timing-dependence!
HOME PRICES
New York Times, 2006
Up to date, by me ***More roller-coaster, more big timing-dependence!
PERSONAL SAVING, and DEBT/INCOME ratio
Through 2013, by me ***Overconsumption for decades is evidenced by the two traces.
USA Governments' DEBT/GDP ratio
Through 2013, by me ***Recent debt jump is 2/3 of that for World War II !
___I think: All these very instructive histories are rarely shown in order to fool the people,
which is intellectual savagery. Such is USA history to date.
___Likely at a glance: The main enabler of sizable asset price bubbles is keeping these
real price histories out of sight.
For estimating the future, lots of folks examine the past.
If a price history is counted in U.S. dollars, you should adjust for inflation.
Take a good look at these instructive track records ... and do your own thinking!
STOCK MARKET, Dow Jones Industrial Average
Wall Street Journal, 1999
Up to date, by me
***A severe roller-coaster! Huge timing-dependence!
HOME PRICES
New York Times, 2006
Up to date, by me
***More roller-coaster, more big timing-dependence!
PERSONAL SAVING, and DEBT/INCOME ratio
Through 2013, by me
***Overconsumption for decades is evidenced by the two traces.
USA Governments' DEBT/GDP ratio
Through 2013, by me
***Recent debt jump is 2/3 of that for World War II !
___I think: All these very instructive histories are rarely shown in order to fool the people,
which is intellectual savagery. Such is USA history to date.
___Likely at a glance: The main enabler of sizable asset price bubbles is keeping these
real price histories out of sight.
References: http://www.showrealhist.com/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html
http://www.showrealhist.com/debtGDP_whys.html