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This house market is falling apart - MarketWatch


               
2014 Aug 26, 11:40am   8,737 views  25 comments

by ChapulinColorado   follow (0)  

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-house-market-is-falling-apart-2014-08-26?siteid=yhoof2

Most real estate experts believe the U.S. housing market is roaring back. Few have anything to negative to say about real estate. But what if they're wrong?

Jurow points out that Redfin.com's latest figures show that in 21 out of 29 major metro areas, sales volume is down year-over-year. “If sales are weakening and listings are going up substantially, prices will fall,” he says.

The problems in housing are much deeper than many people realize, Jurow contends. Another nagging concern is the large number of homeowners who are delinquent. “Delinquent means you haven't paid the mortgage,” Jurow says. “The lender or servicer can file an official notice of default, which begins the foreclosure proceeding.” However, to keep prices from falling further, mortgage servicers have sharply reduced the number of homes placed into default.

Millions of homeowners are already seriously delinquent. “The average length of time that houses remain delinquent nationwide is 995 days,” Jurow says. “The worst culprit is New York State. The average delinquency period there is four years.”

#housing

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16   ChapulinColorado   @   2014 Aug 26, 1:07pm  

Gorgeous. Can imagine the foggy fall. Love that fog rolling in the evenings or evaporating in the mid-morning/afternoon. Plus that October moon in the SFBA is my favorite.

17   ChapulinColorado   @   2014 Aug 26, 1:12pm  

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/08/22/the-home-flipping-bubble-implodes/

The Home-Flipping Bubble Implodes

Home flipping – buying a home and reselling it within 12 months, hopefully for a profit – is the American entrepreneur’s reaction to the vagaries of the housing market. When these gutsy people perceive a big profit opportunity, such as soaring home prices, they pile into the market, and profit grows on trimmed trees and freshly painted walls and rehabbed bathrooms, and flipping volume soars, and the time it takes to complete a flip drops, and nothing can go wrong.

18   ChapulinColorado   @   2014 Aug 26, 1:20pm  

Call it Crazy says

ChapulinColorado says

For all the claims of economic improvement the reality is that much antipathy remains in the marketplace, a feeling that the recovery is incomplete and has not included everyone, a good reason in some eyes not to make major real estate commitments.

This also has something to do with it:

*

Less people applying and more doubling-up. Especially Millenials.

19   RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   @   2014 Aug 26, 1:31pm  

Bubbabear says

Homeownership will only go up when people give up on the concept of pensions and treat their houses as a depreciating asset rather than a stock.

considering population growth is 3% annually but land doesn't grow and the current rate is higher than pre-bubble rate, i'd say that's a very positive graph.

20   ChapulinColorado   @   2014 Aug 26, 1:52pm  

Get a load of this chart from DataQuick’s National Home Sales Snapshot. It’ll tell you everything need to know about housing.

21   ChapulinColorado   @   2014 Aug 26, 1:54pm  

How about for SFBA...


http://www.dqnews.com/

22   ChapulinColorado   @   2014 Aug 26, 2:01pm  

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay140814.aspx

The Table in this link is insane. Sales are down but price is up for SFBA, except Solano.

As you can see, prices are flatlining or drifting lower while sales are sinking like a stone. That’s the whole ball of wax, isn’t it?

Sure, sales will increase in the spring (as they always do), but judging by the sharp dropoff in last year’s hottest markets, this could be the crappiest spring selling season since the crash.

Why?

23   ChapulinColorado   @   2014 Aug 26, 2:10pm  

Now take a look at one last chart. It’s by Logan Mohtashami at dshort.com. from an article titled, Mortgage Purchase Applications Running Out Of Time.

24   ChapulinColorado   @   2014 Aug 26, 2:27pm  

Again I stand corrected. Just didn't realize people still accepted cash.

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