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HydroCabron
2014 Sep 5, 6:29am
What is driving the high stock prices? Are people fleeing from cash, gold, and real estate
Automated 401K contributions and a lack of any glamorous alternative.
Seems like an abuse of the term "bubble" at this point. A real bubble would take P/E far above 22.
curious2
2014 Sep 5, 6:38am
Bubble or Collapse Emmitent?
I don't know, partly because I don't know what "Emmitent" means?
Heraclitusstudent
2014 Sep 5, 7:16am
Current profits happen in a context where companies are sacrificing investments to profits.
This is why you can't rely only on P/E.
I think we will see a correction starting soon.
Dan8267
2014 Sep 5, 7:38am
Bubble or Collapse Emmitent?
I don't know, partly because I don't know what "Emmitent" means?
next 12 months
turtledove
2014 Sep 5, 8:10am
TOP TEN SIGNS THE STOCK MARKET IS ABOUT TO CRASH
1. Everyone stops talking about a crash.
2. All the people who used to talk about a crash have been fired.
3. Your brother-in-law quits his job selling jacuzzis to day-trade stocks full time.
4. James Glassman and Kevin Hassett publish “Dow 36,000: This Time It’s For Realâ€.
5. Harry Dent publishes “The Roaring 2000s: This Time It’s For Real, Tooâ€.
6. Jon Stewart lacerates Jim Cramer on The Daily Show for not being bullish enough. Cramer goes on the show to apologize.
7. Prudent Bear mutual fund closes.
8. Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer sells off the last of the country’s gold reserves and invests the money in the stock market.
9. Top money managers on Wall Street tell polls that they have never been more bullish.
10. Taxi drivers give you their stock tips on the way to the airport – and you write them down.
You’ve been warned.
Maybe I'm missing something, but the second chart stops at 2010. The PE is probably a lot higher now.
curious2
2014 Sep 5, 8:31am
Bubble or Collapse Emmitent?
I don't know, partly because I don't know what "Emmitent" means?
next 12 months
Do you have a source for that definition, or are we making up our own words now?
turtledove
2014 Sep 5, 8:42am
Bubble or Collapse Emmitent?
I don't know, partly because I don't know what "Emmitent" means?
next 12 months
Do you have a source for that definition, or are we making up our own words now?
I tried looking it up, but couldn't find anything to help you out. Perhaps it's an industry term.... used after having a few beers.... and you mean to say imminent or impotent or [your] eminence... and it comes out emmitent.
curious2
2014 Sep 5, 8:47am
Bubble or Collapse Emmitent?
I don't know, partly because I don't know what "Emmitent" means?
next 12 months
Do you have a source for that definition, or are we making up our own words now?
I tried looking it up, but couldn't find anything to help you out. Perhaps it's an industry term....
In that case, I will don a green eye shade, muster a serious tone, and announce that the answer is abstoylent. A year from now, whatever happens, I will claim to have predicted it.
MisdemeanorRebel
2014 Sep 5, 10:22am
Maybe I'm missing something, but the second chart stops at 2010. The PE is probably a lot higher now.
P/E, trailing twelve month, is about 18.5
P/E10 (Graham/Shiller's 10 year P/E) is over 25.
Dan8267
2014 Sep 5, 10:49am
Do you have a source for that definition
Not a definition, just what I meant by imminent.
curious2
2014 Sep 5, 10:54am
Do you have a source for that definition
Not a definition, just what I meant by imminent.
OK, but what do you mean when you say Emmitent?
"When I Use a Word, It Means Just What I Choose It to mean, Neither More nor Less."
Bubble or collapse imminent? Expect an extended bubble, as yield chasers prop up anything with a passable yield. The new-for-now normal?
Dan8267
2014 Sep 7, 1:51pm
OK, but what do you mean when you say Emmitent?
Yes, I did misspell the word. Contrary to popular belief, I'm not perfect. Well, at least outside of the bedroom.
Bubbabeefcake
2014 Sep 7, 3:25pm
QE officially ends the beginning of October ....until then all is merely speculation
The S&P500 is at an all-time high, but it's p/e ratio is just a bit above average. This looks like the start of a stock market bubble to me, and we all know how long bubbles can last and how quickly they can burst.
So what is your prediction of how the S&P 500 will behave over the next few years and why? Do you think people will get scared of the heights and sell off quickly or become irrationally euphoric and drive the index up to 3000 by 2020?
What is driving the high stock prices? Are people fleeing from cash, gold, and real estate?
#housing