patrick.net

sbh says

As the wealthy encounter lower taxes they are going to buy more of every investment across the board. I bet that currently they own a whole lot more treasuries than you might think, given that they tend to be boomers.

Your basing this on what?

sbh says

if I could nail down a risk-free 5% treasury yield tomorrow I would hang it up and clip coupons until I was as feeble and decrepit as CaptainFuckup,

There are many risk-free 5% treasuries out there. They just aren't US treasuries.

sbh says

Right. But if you want the currency risk you can reach for a hell of a lot more yield. I don't want that risk anymore.

Do you really think the dollar isn't without substantial risk at this point? Being the least shitty major currency isn't the same as being a good currency. I have a substantial amount of money overseas without worrying at all about currency risk. I'm not an arbitrage trader, it's long term. Do I worry about the dollar with 17 Trillion in debt against it and a totally bankrupt banking system suddenly making huge up moves against countries with no debt and very well capitalized banks. Not a chance. There will be some fluctuations but long term it will equal out.

Call it Crazy says

sbh says

Having just come back from spending three weeks

at rehab...

Looks like it didn't work..

sbh says

I plan to vacation

at rehab

sbh says

in retirement is a grand idea.

Instead of clogging up the post with your trash why don't you have mommy get you a warm glass of mild and cookie then go to bed. Be sure to lock the door so she doesn't catch you abusing yourself to the lingerie section of the sears catalogue. That would be embarressing.

sbh says

I'm content to hedge the USD with ownership in EM miners and energy producers.

I'm not in equities of any kind any more, but commodities right now are pretty scary even indirectly through miners. China is just such a huge part of the market yet is totally opaque. I've been reading some of the mining companies in Australia have stock valuations way less than assets. That wouldn't be a bad play. I can't see how energy won't drop through the floor in the next few years. The US ins't the only market that is going to take up fracking. I can't see how there won't be oversupply coming with so much production coming on line while demand isn't really going anywhere. When oil fell to give away prices in the late 90's oil driller and oilfield suppliers stock went to give away prices along with it.. I bought a ton and sold it 5 years later for an obscene gain.

Call it Crazy says

bob2356 says

then go to bed.

Oh Bob, is your Dementia really bad today? Go look at the clock, it's 10 AM in the Northeast... Do you know where you are? Better go check with your home health aide!

Children need their nap times, so 10AM is just about right. Don't forget to lock the door.

sbh says

Just seat of the pants observation of the nation: the boomers have the money and their appetite for risk is shrinking as they age. Treasuries pay a pittance but they are safe and liquid and look good if deflation persists or increases. The wealthy spread risk capital across the spectrum, and if they have lavish life style costs they need cash. Treasuries act as cash. I think the 1% own a shitload of them. JMO. I own a shitload.

Yep. The government bond bubble may still have a ways to go. Watch out for cracks in the corporate bond market though.

Not investment advice.