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Elon Musk's take on AI


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2014 Oct 27, 7:56am   22,087 views  57 comments

by rooemoore   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

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18   justme   2014 Oct 28, 7:28am  

rooemoore says

Unless, of course, you recharge at one of these:

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

Makes no difference whatsoever. Tesla model S is still at best a 35 mpg-equivalent car, and for the most part quite a bit less than 35 mpg.

I suspect you do not possess the knowledge to understand why this is the case, but if you are interested you can always search on patrick.net for the answer.

19   justme   2014 Oct 28, 7:32am  

Rin says

The Tesla is simply another luxury car brand, not too distinct from a Maserati or a Lamborghini. And the latter aren't fuel efficient either.

True, Tesla is better than a BMW 740 or equivalent [addendum: because 35mpg (actually less but ...) versus 22mpg]

But the problem is that most people think that Tesla is a solution to our dependency on fossile fuel and our CO2 emissions. It clearly is not, but 99% of the population are incapable of even understanding why this is the case. It is a very dangerous delusion that will come back and bite us HARD after another 20 years of believing that Tesla will solve our energy and CO2 problems, when in fact it does nothing of the sort.

20   justme   2014 Oct 28, 7:35am  

rooemoore says

Or this:

http://www.engadget.com/2014/07/15/tesla-model-iii/

You just don't get it. Three Prius that are 50mpg is still 42% better than Three Tesla Model III at 35 mpg in fossile consumption and CO2 emissions.

21   Peter P   2014 Oct 28, 9:13am  

justme says

True, Tesla is better than a BMW 740 or equivalent

How so?

22   justme   2014 Oct 28, 11:09am  

Peter P says

justme says

True, Tesla is better than a BMW 740 or equivalent

How so?

Need you ask? In the only way that matters: BMW 740i 2013 model gets 22 mpg.

http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=33094

23   Peter P   2014 Oct 28, 11:23am  

justme says

Peter P says

justme says

True, Tesla is better than a BMW 740 or equivalent

How so?

Need you ask? In the only way that matters: BMW 740i 2013 model gets 22 mpg.

http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=33094

Gas is cheap in America.

24   EBGuy   2014 Oct 28, 11:33am  

justme, Always appreciate your perspective, but I don't understand how you move your transportation infrastructure towards renewables using fossil fuels. Or maybe your answer is "You don't, you just use those fossil resources more efficiently, augmented by renewable drop in replacements (biodiesel, biomethane, ethanol)". And then at some point, you make the great leap forward to the "sustainable alternative" (when the grid goes renewable, or solar/wind make H2 generation feasible, or...).

25   justme   2014 Oct 28, 1:27pm  

EBGuy says

justme, Always appreciate your perspective, but I don't understand how you move your transportation infrastructure towards renewables using fossil fuels.

Thanks! I'm trying my best.

Let me try to answer: Using fossile fuel is what Tesla is doing! Any incremental increase in demand from electric cars can currently only be met by burning coal and natgas in the electrical power plants , because there is not enough clean power to meet even non-vehicle electrical demand. If there was, we would not need coal and natgas plants in the first place.

So the BEST(*) approach is to expand the supply of green electricity as fast as is practical and economical, decommission coal plants (first) and natgas (second), and when the grid mix CO2/kWh is low enough that adding electric cars causes lower total fossile consumption and CO2 emission than using the the most efficient hybrid-gasoline (and even better, hybrid-diesel) cars, then start phasing in the pure electric cars.

(*) BEST is defined as lowest TOTAL fossile consumption and CO2 emission for both household/industrial consumption and transportation consumption of energy, be it electrical or direct burning of fossile fuels (gas, oil, coal, tar sand).

Here's the point: We are nowhere near the green electrical supply point where incremental substitution of electrical cars for the most efficient hybrids will result in a net reduction in fossile fuel consumption and CO2 emission.

Now, I think you are hinting at a commonly seen argument that we need companies such as Tesla NOW because their battery technology will save us in the future. This is not a valid argument. What we need is lots and lots (millions per year) of 50+ mpg hybrid cars, and such demand will create much better battery technology than 28,000 (or whatever) Teslas, while at the same time reducing our total fossile fuel consumption and CO2 emission by a lot relative to the same scenario based on Teslas instead of hybrids. Don't forget that each Tesla you put on the road uses 42% more fossile fuel than a Prius or similar hybrid, and that is with average grid mix. The correct accounting is to charge the Tesla with incremental supply based on coal and natgas, which is much worse than the average, so the real figure is considerably higher than 42%.

26   bob2356   2014 Oct 28, 8:14pm  

justme says

Tesla is better than a BMW 740

Nothing is better than a BMW 740, except a BMW 750. Bmw is for people who want to drive, everything else is for people who need to drive.

Oh sure you can buy very cool and fun automotive toys like the ones with horses or spears on the hood, but I'm talking about taking the kids to school or a quick trip with 3 other people Boston to NY cars.

27   New Renter   2014 Oct 29, 12:21am  

bob2356 says

Nothing is better than a BMW 740, except a BMW 750. Bmw is for people who want to drive, everything else is for people who need to drive.

My stepdad's X5 was a terrible POS. Things went wrong on it that should NEVER go wrong on a modern car. Things like the door seals degrading twice, window regulators breaking, electric latches failing. When I drove it I just found it heavy and lumbering like all SUVs. Even my original Jeep Cherokee was more limber than the X5. He finally traded it in (at a huge loss) for a FIAT because he wanted something more reliable.

Other people I've known with BMWs also had expensive mechanical problems too.

28   rooemoore   2014 Oct 29, 2:41am  

justme says

rooemoore says

Unless, of course, you recharge at one of these:

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

Makes no difference whatsoever. Tesla model S is still at best a 35 mpg-equivalent car, and for the most part quite a bit less than 35 mpg.

I suspect you do not possess the knowledge to understand why this is the case, but if you are interested you can always search on patrick.net for the answer.

So you are saying I can possess knowledge by searching on Patrick.net? That's pretty funny.

How can a car that runs completely on solar power emit more CO2 than a hybrid?

BTW, I do understand your point about pure electric being less efficient than hybrid. In the USA this varies based on location and time of year. And because it is a small company, the fact that it is not as efficient as a hybrid in some cases, really has a miniscule environmental impact.

But Tesla is showing clearly that with the right commitment to renewable energy production, our need for fossil fuels can be reduced dramatically despite what the oil consortium would like us to believe.

Anyway, Musk's plans are to get homes off the grid. The car is just a way to get noticed and get funding for the battery factory.

29   Peter P   2014 Oct 29, 2:52am  

bob2356 says

Bmw is for people who want to drive, everything else is for people who need to drive.

BMW is pretty good as a leased car. Somehow the way they setup everything makes the numbers extremely compelling. It is cheaper to lease a BMW than a comparable Volvo. I have done the math. (I really prefer Volvo though.)

Lease payment is a better indicator of the true ownership cost.

BTW, do you really want to own an out-of-warranty European car? Our used Lexus lasted 10+ years.

30   Peter P   2014 Oct 29, 2:56am  

Just give me the self-driving car now! Who cares about whether the car runs on renewable energy?

31   justme   2014 Oct 29, 3:58am  

rooemoore says

So you are saying I can possess knowledge by searching on Patrick.net? That's pretty funny.

I caved in and already gave the answer, above, in the long post that talks about the total fossile consumption and CO2 emission. I do get tired of answering the same questions over and over again, hence I tell you to search my earlier posts.

rooemoore says

How can a car that runs completely on solar power emit more CO2 than a hybrid?

Well, it appears that you did not understand my aforementioned explanation. I'll try to simplify. The question to ask is the following: Which has lower total fossile consumption and CO2 emisson of the following two scenarios:

A. Solar panels feeding a Tesla model S, no grid electricity used

B. Same solar panels feeding the grid, with coal or natgas plants dialled down accordingly, and driving a Prius on gasoline.

The correct answer is B, by a >42% margin. You really have to think hard about this. The above A/B example is the "microeconomic" picture of the energy economics of fossile consumption and CO2 emission with respect to vehicle choice.

Any talk about solar panels on YOUR roof, time-of-year, where you live, how green the power is in your zipcode and other blah-blah is just red herring and false arguments. Understand the big picture.

Next time will you please search patrick.net?

32   🎂 Rin   2014 Oct 29, 5:58am  

Peter P says

Just give me the self-driving car now! Who cares about whether the car runs on renewable energy?

Yes, this would make going out drinking, a lot easier.

33   Peter P   2014 Oct 29, 6:01am  

Rin says

Peter P says

Just give me the self-driving car now! Who cares about whether the car runs on renewable energy?

Yes, this would make going out drinking, a lot easier.

Also, cars can become windowless, allowing way more privacy. ;-)

34   🎂 Rin   2014 Oct 29, 6:08am  

Peter P says

Rin says

Peter P says

Just give me the self-driving car now! Who cares about whether the car runs on renewable energy?

Yes, this would make going out drinking, a lot easier.

Also, cars can become windowless, allowing way more privacy.

Yes, there was a vampire movie where they went out during the day with windowless cars and cameras were streaming the outside view footage onto screens in the car.

35   MAGA   2014 Oct 29, 6:13am  

Screw him and his electric cars. Here is my ride:

http://www.youtube.com/embed/iYol7m3WjGQ

36   Peter P   2014 Oct 29, 6:14am  

LOL. The Tesla S has pretty good performance though.

37   🎂 Rin   2014 Oct 29, 6:22am  

What A.I. will do is allow me to finally have a gal, who looks like Raquel, but won't take me to the cleaners.

And playing an annual software updating license isn't highway robbery.

38   Peter P   2014 Oct 29, 6:30am  

Rin says

What A.I. will do is allow me to...

Perhaps an A.I. lucid dreaming device?

39   🎂 Rin   2014 Oct 29, 6:38am  

Peter P says

Rin says

What A.I. will do is allow me to...

Perhaps an A.I. lucid dreaming device?

Yes, a good idea.

Imagine coming back home from work, Raquel opens the door, takes your coat, offers you a glass of Bourbon, gets down on her knees and starts to deep throat you. Then, the mp3 player turns on, Metallica's "Call of the Ktulu" is playing, you sip away enjoying the sensations and sounds.

40   Ceffer   2014 Oct 29, 6:39am  

I was happier when I thought Elon Musk was a perfume.

41   Peter P   2014 Oct 29, 6:43am  

Lucid wet dreams are superior to A.I. sex bots because there is less to clean.

42   🎂 Rin   2014 Oct 29, 6:45am  

Peter P says

Lucid wet dreams are superior to A.I. sex bots because there is less to clean.

Considering that I had one with Billie Piper, I can honestly say yes, it was awesome.

Still, physiologically speaking, the body does need to boink in physical reality and thus, an A.I. 'bot will do the trick, sorry, make that many tricks :-)

43   bob2356   2014 Oct 29, 6:57am  

Peter P says

BTW, do you really want to own an out-of-warranty European car?

I've got a supercharged 540 e39 msport and and e32 750 right now, plus a newer k1500 suburban. I do more work on the suburban than the other 2 put together by far. In the last 9 months I've had the great fortune to deal with the they all do it chevy 5.7 intake gasket failure and flex plate failure along with other ongoing common suburban problems. Common e32/e39 problems are much easier to deal with. It's a lot easier to wrench the beemers also unless you are 9 feet tall.

44   New Renter   2014 Oct 29, 7:18am  

Rin says

Peter P says

Lucid wet dreams are superior to A.I. sex bots because there is less to clean.

Still, physiologically speaking, the body does need to boink in physical reality and thus, an A.I. 'bot will do the trick, sorry, make that many tricks :-)

I thought prayer was supposed to cure that particular sin.

Its cheaper too, provided you don't tithe.

bob2356 says

Peter P says

BTW, do you really want to own an out-of-warranty European car?

I've got a supercharged 540 e39 msport and and e32 750 right now, plus a newer k1500 suburban. I do more work on the suburban than the other 2 put together by far. In the last 9 months I've had the great fortune to deal with the they all do it chevy 5.7 intake gasket failure and flex plate failure along with other ongoing common suburban problems. Common e32/e39 problems are much easier to deal with. It's a lot easier to wrench the beemers also unless you are 9 feet tall.

I have heard good things about the E39s.

45   🎂 Rin   2014 Oct 29, 7:26am  

New Renter says

Rin says

Peter P says

Lucid wet dreams are superior to A.I. sex bots because there is less to clean.

Still, physiologically speaking, the body does need to boink in physical reality and thus, an A.I. 'bot will do the trick, sorry, make that many tricks :-)

I thought prayer was supposed to cure that particular sin.

Its cheaper too, provided you don't tithe.

Nah, a good day starts with 60-70 pushups, followed by a quick shag with the 'bot, and then off to work.

46   Peter P   2014 Oct 29, 7:26am  

bob2356 says

I've got a supercharged 540 e39 msport and and e32 750 right now, plus a newer k1500 suburban.

Ah, the E32 is a classic. Nothing beats a good old V12.

47   Ceffer   2014 Oct 29, 7:32am  

Rin says

Still, physiologically speaking, the body does need to boink in physical reality and thus, an A.I. 'bot will do the trick, sorry, make that many tricks :-)

How many boinks are those things good for before they need to be rejuvenated (or re-vaginated, as the case may be) back to factory specs?

Do they sell "sloppy seconds" used models for lower prices?

48   Peter P   2014 Oct 29, 7:33am  

Ceffer says

How many boinks are those things good for before they need to be rejuvenated (or re-vaginated, as the case may be) back to factory specs.

And such bots are not only technical marvels, they are technical virgins too. ;-)

49   New Renter   2014 Oct 29, 7:56am  

Rin says

New Renter says

Rin says

Peter P says

Lucid wet dreams are superior to A.I. sex bots because there is less to clean.

Still, physiologically speaking, the body does need to boink in physical reality and thus, an A.I. 'bot will do the trick, sorry, make that many tricks :-)

I thought prayer was supposed to cure that particular sin.

Its cheaper too, provided you don't tithe.

Nah, a good day starts with 60-70 pushups, followed by a quick shag with the 'bot, and then off to work.

Take out the part about "work" and you've got it.

No such fantasy is complete without lifetime heredity membership in the idle filthy rich club.

50   New Renter   2014 Oct 29, 7:57am  

Peter P says

bob2356 says

I've got a supercharged 540 e39 msport and and e32 750 right now, plus a newer k1500 suburban.

Ah, the E32 is a classic. Nothing beats a good old V12.

Unless your the poor schmuck who gets stuck with doing the valve job.

Ceffer says

Rin says

Still, physiologically speaking, the body does need to boink in physical reality and thus, an A.I. 'bot will do the trick, sorry, make that many tricks :-)

How many boinks are those things good for before they need to be rejuvenated (or re-vaginated, as the case may be) back to factory specs?

Do they sell "sloppy seconds" used models for lower prices?

Why, are you in the market?

51   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Oct 29, 8:05am  

Rin says

What A.I. will do is allow me to finally have a gal, who looks like Raquel, but won't take me to the cleaners.

Why do you need the intelligence?

52   🎂 Rin   2014 Oct 29, 8:09am  

Rin says

Nah, a good day starts with 60-70 pushups, followed by a quick shag with the 'bot, and then off to work.
New Renter says

Take out the part about "work" and you've got it.

No such fantasy is complete without lifetime heredity membership in the idle filthy rich club.

In this case, "work" is an independently wealthy researcher, going to his lab facility or an archery contest or teaching a martial arts class, none of that wage slave stuff.

Ceffer says

How many boinks are those things good for before they need to be rejuvenated (or re-vaginated, as the case may be) back to factory specs?

Do they sell "sloppy seconds" used models for lower prices?

From what I'd heard, RealDolls can easily "take a pounding" for over a decade. And yes, there's a 2nd "hand" market.

53   🎂 Rin   2014 Oct 29, 8:15am  

Heraclitusstudent says

Rin says

What A.I. will do is allow me to finally have a gal, who looks like Raquel, but won't take me to the cleaners.

Why do you need the intelligence?

All purpose, along with the sex, I can talk to her about classic rock (esp those obscure bands, which many women don't listen to), my writing ideas, my research, practice some martial arts, etc. It would be like having an authentic companion w/o the hokeyness of real life relationships where my job is to be a dumping grounds for a bunch of half-truths, lies, and manipulations over time and incessant boring conversations about work/life gossip, "why can't she/he be this way", the dog (or cat), etc.

54   🎂 Rin   2014 Oct 29, 8:30am  

Rin says

I can talk to her about classic rock (esp those obscure bands, which many women don't listen to)

One of her first non-sexual assignments will be to come up with rotating mp3 playlists, so she'll do optimization work on whether or not a particular Deep Purple song should come before or after a Led Zeppelin or Velvet Underground one. I'll also have her work on re-writing a few of Metallica's solos and create mixed tracks.

55   🎂 Rin   2014 Nov 5, 12:14am  

BTW, even if I had a billion, I wouldn't take a ride on SpaceX.

56   Peter P   2014 Nov 5, 12:22am  

Rin says

BTW, even if I had a billion, I wouldn't take a ride on SpaceX.

You can't pay me to go to space.

57   🎂 Rin   2014 Nov 5, 1:05am  

Peter P says

Rin says

BTW, even if I had a billion, I wouldn't take a ride on SpaceX.

You can't pay me to go to space.

With a light speed warp drive, I'll consider seeing the rings of Saturn, possibly the one view in the solar system worth seeing on one's bucket list. That's worth a 2 hour road trip.

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