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I would like to know what happens next week. Up or down?

Strategist says

I would like to know what happens next week. Up or down?

You'll find the 100% accurate analysis the week after next.

Peter P says

Strategist says

I would like to know what happens next week. Up or down?

You'll find the 100% accurate analysis the week after next.

Then what good is the Elliott Wave?

Strategist says

Peter P says

Strategist says

I would like to know what happens next week. Up or down?

You'll find the 100% accurate analysis the week after next.

Then what good is the Elliott Wave?

It looks pretty after the fact?

LOL. Anyway, it is a tool. As with anything pertaining to the market, it is more of an art than a science. Some people find Elliott Wave very useful.

darlag says

Gold and Silver should both "pop" soon. The selling pressure of the last few months has subsided and the gold market should reflect a renewed interest in the yellow metal.

I'm glad you used "should"...lol
If gold does not give 1250 a good fight it will tell you "price" is not agreeing on a higher level. I would definitely confirm "price" before entering a trade based on that chart. The chart does provide some concept of expectation.

Graybox says

If gold does not give 1250 a good fight it will tell you "price" is not agreeing on a higher level. I would definitely confirm "price" before entering a trade based on that chart. Thechart does provide some concept of expectation.

Ooh, do you mostly trade on price action and order flow?

Peter P says

Strategist says

Peter P says

Strategist says

I would like to know what happens next week. Up or down?

You'll find the 100% accurate analysis the week after next.

Then what good is the Elliott Wave?

It looks pretty after the fact?

LOL. Anyway, it is a tool. As with anything pertaining to the market, it is more of an art than a science. Some people find Elliott Wave very useful.

If it is more art than science, what purpose does a complex graph serve, when different people look at the same picture and arrive at completely different forecasts.

Strategist says

If it is more art than science, what purpose does a complex graph serve, when different people look at the same picture and arrive at completely different forecasts.

LOL! If everyone arrives at the same forecast there will be no market. :-)

Peter P says

do you mostly trade on price action and order flow?

In concept....lol
I manually trade a system that weighs price based on a model of logical price points and a multiple of indicators. Some are common indicators as well as propriety in nature.

I attempt to trade only the NY sweet spot when the most traders are in the market and I can expect the most volatility. I generally have a good size area price can move before the deal has to be killed. This system requires I always have contingency plans I can execute if needed to preserve capitol if I find myself on the wrong side.

Graybox says

Peter P says

do you mostly trade on price action and order flow?

In concept....lol

I manually trade a system that weighs price based on a model of logical price points and a multiple of indicators. Some are common indicators as well as propriety in nature.

did you create that model, or did you purchase it?

Graybox says

I attempt to trade only the NY sweet spot when the most traders are in the market and I can expect the most volatility.

Volatility is a good thing.

Strategist says

I would like to know what happens next week. Up or down?

Elliott Wave Theory does not "predict" price action, but it does provide guidelines for trading a wave structure.

For instance, if one trusts the above chart, then by rule, no part of the upcoming Wave 3 can correct beyond the bottom of Wave 2. Thus, the way to trade this wave is to buy at current levels or below, but above wave 2. Place a stop one tick below wave 2.

Subsequently, Wave 3 should progress in five sub-waves. Follow the waves upward until all five sub-waves have completed. Cash out. If you are really brave, wait for waves 4 and 5 to complete before cashing out.

As wave 3 progresses, you can move your stop up just below the completion of each corrective sub-wave (2 and 4), insuring a profit should you mis-interpret the count along the way.

This description does not constitute a recommendation, but rather a simplified description of one way to trade Elliott Waves based on the current wave structure.

A technical description of the Elliott Wave Principle for anyone interested...

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/introduction-to-the-elliott-wave-principle-the-key-to-understanding-market-behaviorpart-1-the-basic-8-wave-cycle/

Strategist says

did you create that model, or did you purchase it?

I built the system for use in the spot market however due to the nature of markets in general and mechanics of the stock market being a secondary market it provides a measure of insight and probabilities that can be applied to the indexes and sectors particularly. The principles the system is built by can be used on most any market of interest.

Purchased systems have a few drawbacks:

1. Even for a white-box system, you may understand the logic but not the nuances. When it hits a rough patch, you are likely to second-guess the signals at the wrong times.

2. A system developed for a different trader may not be suitable for your own trading psychology, which is all important in this game.

Peter P says

Purchased systems have a few drawbacks:

You can add neural network systems. They all have a shelf life and the time it takes to build the system is subtracted from the total. Most are built with very specific perimeters once they die you throw them away and start over. From concept to death is about 18mo. on the avg. minus the time building and testing.

Everyone has to pay to play and buying a system isn't all bad
many providing a lesson in hard knocks. The absolutely best system is developed with self reliance created from experience.

Graybox says

You can add neural network systems. They all have a shelf life and the time it takes to build the system is subtracted from the total. Most are built with very specific perimeters once they die you throw them away and start over. From concept to death is about 18mo. on the avg. minus the time building and testing.

Traditional NN has many issues like overfitting and the curse of dimensionality.

An 18-month shelf-life sounds about right, if you are lucky. The hard question is when to throw it out before it does you serious damage.

Graybox says

Everyone has to pay to play and buying a system isn't all bad

many providing a lesson in hard knocks.

The best part is of course chatting with the developer of the system. There are many questionable personalities in the industry. But there are also quite a few who are surprisingly honest!

Do you use a tool for market-regime detection? For example, turning off mean-reversion when forecasted volatility is low, or stop trading when all market correlations suddenly head towards 1.0?

Peter P says

Do you use a tool for market-regime detection?

Nothing that defined or sophisticated. I definitely stand down at times when price is giving no direction or like currently when I know the 17th there is high odds of confirmation right or wrong and more than likely nothing more significant lays between now and that date. I may make some adjustments before then.

I am fully anticipating some very high volatility from the 17th threw the end of the week. Prior there is some high volitility taking place as the pro money positions themselves.

The way in part I am using odds to determine if gold is in a position to trade (buy) and has nothing to do as a hedge in this case;
From my frame of reference the JPY predominately is being used as a carry trade to short gold, buy bonds and etc. Demand for JPY (7 pairs down in direction) has been incredible, taking the Stoch collectively down to 5.07%, however RSI is only at 45.67% and the % off the last low is still 74.20%. The levels in conventional 14 RSI I use are the 45 and 55 and under this circumstance 45 being a buy if anticipating and getting a confirmation signal to the upside, thus the termination of a retest.

My interpretation at present is no real shift chg. has taken place or will and I expect status quo to take back over and gold and related commodities will continue to fall.

Several other items could be applied such as the character of weighted alpha over time which sets at 7.99 since the the shift (10/2012) has ran in the high teens 18 +/- and more, prices have room to get far more stretched then most can appreciate. 1 other very common character of the JPY and the USD is when the JPY exhaust itself USD takes over. USD is overall the best preforming currency at present with lots of room to grow and JPY weakness will not only confirm but add even more power.

Graybox says

I definitely stand down at times when price is giving no direction

Smart. The most powerful knowledge about the market is that you do not have to trade all the time. :-)