patrick.net

You're a glass half-empty kind of guy...

Heraclitusstudent says

You're a glass half-empty kind of guy...

Worse-no glass!

smaulgld says

Worse-no glass!

So Apple profits, Google, Facebook, Oracle, Intel, etc... all this counts for nothing? An illusion?
They're not dominating the world?

Heraclitusstudent says

Apple profits, Google, Facebook, Oracle, Intel, etc... all this counts for nothing? An illusion?

They're not dominating the world?

Those companies have massively inflated valuations but the real clunkers are all the companies that Patrick has listed on this site that never have and never will make a profit yet employee tens of thousands of people at very high salaries who pay very high rents. These companies will go away

Facebook PE 78!
do you think facebook's best growth days are ahead of it? Enough growth there to justify a 78 price earnings ratio?

Facebook has 10,000 employees

Linked in 8,000 employees in Mountain View -$27 Billion market cap NO PROFITS

Zillow- $5 billion market cap-in business 11 years and no annual profit EVER

Sure you can say they have inflated values. So what?
Remember 2000? valuations were far worse then. And SV is *still* dominating the world.

This is not an illusion. There are massive, real profits being made. Out of real products.

Heraclitusstudent says

This is not an illusion. There are massive, real profits being made. Out of real products.

Some of the companies make profits most dont and the ones that make profits like Facebook are WAY overvalued

Heraclitusstudent says

Sure you can say they have inflated values. So what?

Remember 2000? valuations were far worse then. And SV is *still* dominating the world.

The .com crash wasn't pretty in the bay area. It only rebounded because of swift fed intervention.
What happens this time after $4.3 T of QE and ZIRP finally peak and collapse?

Twitter $23 Billion market cap NO PROFITS EVER
2,500 employees

smaulgld says

What happens this time after $4.3 T of QE and ZIRP finally peak and collapse?

A few sexting companies will go belly up and the rest of SV will continue to extend its domination over the world.

Etsy- $2 billion market cap - No profits

Zygna- Market Cap $3 billion- no profits
2,000 employees

Heraclitusstudent says

A few sexting companies will go belly up and the rest of SV will continue to extend its domination over the world.

more than a few, most of the employee base will be decimated. The handful of giants (google, intel oracle) will remain but the vibrant VC culture and pricey real estate will be gone

Heraclitusstudent says

A few sexting companies will go belly up and the rest of SV will continue to extend its domination over the world.

More than a few sexting companies here in SF alone
http://patrick.net/companies

Tesla- 10,000 employees, 70,000 cars delivered since 2008.
NO PROFITS $32 Billion market cap

Then there are countless unprofitable biotech companies like Demira

smaulgld says

Tesla- 10,000 employees, 70,000 cars delivered since 2008.

NO PROFITS $32 Billion market cap

Tesla certainly has a shot at being the next Toyota. No guaranties, but a shot.

Heraclitusstudent says

Tesla certainly has a shot at being the next Toyota. No guaranties, but a shot.

certainly, but many of the companies on patrick's list have NO shot, yet they have some VC or IPO money and pay their employees well. They will be gone as will their employees who are in part boosting real estate prices and rents

smaulgld says

Facebook PE 278!

do you think facebook's best growth days are ahead of it? Enough growth there to justify a 278 price earnings ratio?

78. Such error makes me doubt the rest of your points.
Btw, forward PE is 30.

Why do you think Apple is over valued? Trailing PE = 15.9, fwd PE = 13.1, far lower than average PE of S&P.
Also, its earning growth rate is 32.7%

hanera says

78. Such error makes me doubt the rest of your points.

Btw, forward PE is 30.

Typo Fixed it- same question- Is FB worth 78X earnings on a $272Billion market cap?

smaulgld,

When those no profit companies collapse, the third tiered places e.g. Gilroy, would follow but the first tiered places such as PA would just drop slightly. The reason is because first tiered places are owned by the rich guys, many folks who are staying far away would buy into any RE weaknesses and are anchored by the big guys (Apple, Google, Facebook, Intel, Cisco, Stanford University). Location, location, location.

hanera says

many folks who are staying far away would buy into any RE weaknesses and are anchored by the big guys (Apple, Google, Facebook, Intel, Cisco, Stanford University). Location, location, location.

yep they'll pick up the pieces of the bust

San francisco is used to the boom bust cycle dating back to 1849.

Amazing that people think its not going to happen again soon.

smaulgld says

Linked in 8,000 employees in Mountain View -$27 Billion market cap NO PROFITS

Profits are so '80's.

And employees so 1950's

Companies that lose money are worth more than companies that make money
https://www.youtube.com/embed/Gu8UBxRBUl8&feature=youtu.be

Where is that video from? Any start up in Silicon Valley?SF?

I thought the theory was that the US was buying it's own bonds in Belgium.

Now you are saying the Chinese are? Why?

indigenous says

I thought the theory was that the US was buying it's own bonds in Belgium.

Now you are saying the Chinese are? Why?

I'm not saying anything about that. It's all speculation whether its the Fed or the chinese or whomever. It's just very odd that there was a sudden spike in purchases of T bonds out of Belgium post QE and now a sudden drop.

Zero hedge is the one who first stated it was the Fed who bought them, now they are saying its the Chinese who are selling them

Media home price SF/San Jose
over $1 million. What type of salary does the "average" person in those areas make- can they afford to pay without stock options?
http://www.sfgate.com/business/networth/article/1-million-city-S-F-median-home-price-hits-7-5626591.php

smaulgld says

Media home price SF/San Jose

over $1 million. What type of salary does the "average" person in those areas make- can they afford to pay without stock options?

The right people are buying these properties. Those who cannot compete are pushed farther east into the desert. It is nature's way.

Blurtman says

The right people are buying these properties. Those who cannot compete are pushed farther east into the desert. It is nature's way.

Those paying with cash may be ok after the crash, those with mortgages will be underwater and those that paid in cash will have higher taxes to pay. At least rents will be cheaper, but those losing their jobs may just move out of the bay area

It's getting pretty crazy in Seattle as well.

What a bargain! $499,000. 839 sq. ft. $427/month HOA dues.

This one won’t last long. A real GEM!

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2018-NW-57th-St-98107/unit-202/home/52595189

Blurtman says

It's getting pretty crazy in Seattle as well.

What a bargain! $499,000. 839 sq. ft. $427/month HOA dues.

This one won’t last long. A real GEM!

Seems the fed is intent on letting the air out of this one very slowely- small rate hike this year and maybe another small one next year if data supports it= this could go on a while longer