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Housing - I was wrong, and I am sorry.


               
2015 Jun 27, 2:18pm   13,793 views  15 comments

by JasonM   follow (0)  

Thanks to everyone who responded to my previous thread. Some of the stuff you posted caused me to think and I am still processing it. The nice thing about being here is I dont carry any baggage or ego associated with my old blog. I was so wrapped up in my old bearish handle, my ego would never allow me to admit I was wrong.

So maybe now is time to take stock in all the shit that caused my housing decisions to screw me. On the off chance there is any sort of karmic justice out there, maybe I need to confess my sins and repent for being a real dipshit, and things will work out for me. Here is what I can think of off the top of my head:

I would rail and lash out on blogs because housing cost too much and it frustrated me and made me angry.
I made my housing decisions not based on logic, but emotion.
I presented my opinion as fact.
I dismissed supply and demand and relied on bearish rules "proving" that prices would crash.
I believed in the “shadow inventory” (what a bunch of bullshit that was).
I listened to Denninger.
I read Zero Hedge.
I posted shit that even I didn't think would happen.
I refused to listen to anyone who said prices could rise.
I continued to spout off about how prices would crash, even when I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about. At the time, I will admit it made me feel good. It satisfied this need to take a shit on housing when I knew I couldn't have it.

In the long run, this did nothing for me, and that sort of mindset really fucked me in the long term. For the past 2-3 years, I had a sneaking suspicion the bottom was in, but I ignored it, downplayed it, dismissed it, and now suffer because of it. For all these things and more, I was wrong, and I am sorry.

#housing

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13   hanera   @   2015 Jun 28, 8:25pm  

Strategist says

Prices are about to go through the roof.

What make you think so? Mass exodus from China or from Greece?

14   Strategist   @   2015 Jun 28, 8:42pm  

hanera says

Strategist says

Prices are about to go through the roof.

What make you think so? Mass exodus from China or from Greece?

More and more people are convinced the worst of the housing is over. When they started regretting not having purchased earlier, as can be soon on this site, they will rush to buy. When they can't find their home given the acute shortage, they will panic.

15   hanera   @   2015 Jun 28, 8:56pm  

Strategist says

More and more people are convinced the worst of the housing is over. When they started regretting not having purchased earlier, as can be soon on this site, they will rush to buy. When they can't find their home given the acute shortage, they will panic.

RE is not stock market. No money means no money. If you're right that they will panic, then is the cities outside the core (SF, SV, Peninsula) that would be appreciating, which I thought is already happening. Recall reading somewhere that East PA, South SJ, Morgan Hill, etc are booming; while the prices in core area is plateauing.

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