patrick.net

Ironman says

Why the drop in the LFPR of the 25-54 then? There is another population bubble in that lower range.

This has been a open talking debate point for a good 10 years now

This my thesis on this and the Census website I encourage everyone to check out to show why demographics matter in economic talk
http://www.census.gov/popclock/?intcmp=home_pop

We are very Heavy Ages 12-29

This group below in the prime working age group based on all the data I have seen over the last decade has been struggling

- High School Drop outs
- Non college educated Americans
- Drug users ( Those not in institutions)
- Criminal active Americans ( those not in jail)_
- Unskilled trade school Americans
- Those with a criminal background, males in high %, which stays on the resume

( Also) Women staying home because child care cost are high and it doesn't make financial sense

So, this group above with the demographic push of Americans into the system to me are the majority of the push out in the economic cycle with 152 million working Americans and miss the 2.9 million to 4.2 million since 2000

It seems to me that the 10 million on permanent disability are a factor as well.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

WTF is the difference between

the same diff as your asshole and a hole in the ground, your libby mentality prevents you from seeing a diff, can't help you.

Taxi driver picks someone up in a car and takes them somewhere. Uber driver picks someone up in a car and takes them somewhere. Curiosity overwhelms me, exactly what difference to you see in this whole new field?

Just because you can't defend your positions don't get rude.

Uber uses cell phones and some software to make for a more competitive company.

indigenous says

Uber uses cell phones and some software to make for a more competitive company.

More competitive because they are sidestepping the government protection of profits of traditional taxi's, not because using a cell phone has any great advantage. Plenty of limo and taxi companies use cell phones for dispatch. They existed before uber. You can buy any of dozens of systems for your taxi fleet right now like this one . http://www.limontaxi.com/

Ok, how is getting a radio call more efficient than getting a text? Where exactly is the savings? The only savings is using the app to automatically send out the dispatch without human intervention. So once again you are making my argument for me. Technology is NET destroying jobs not creating them. How many programmers do you think it took to write the uber app? How many unemployed or soon to be unemployed taxi dispatchers do you think there are?

Stay in school kids!

I saw on shitty yahoo finance this morning that 30 yr mortgage rates were down to 3.79% from 3.91% a week ago

Amerisave didnt send me any different quotes reflecting any actual drop. I only follow it loosely as i last re-fi'd at 3.5% in 2012, and only reason I'd re-fi again would be 15yr @ 2.5% or lower with minimal fees.

But it also feels like the time is right for the next leg down in mortgage rates

errc says

But it also feels like the time is right for the next leg down in mortgage rates

If 10's can break this tough 2% 10 year channel line, and get some next day follow through action, you see a test of 1.87% on 10's which if that breaks then
you can retest the lows of the year at 1.64%

bob2356 says

More competitive because they are sidestepping the government protection

Governments always follows technology, it takes time for them to figure out how to sink their claws into the new technology.

bob2356 says

Ok, how is getting a radio call more efficient than getting a text? Where exactly is the savings? The only savings is using the app to automatically send out the dispatch without human intervention.

It eliminates the dispatcher and provides quicker services and holds the driver accountable, hence higher quality, faster service, for less money.

indigenous says

So once again you are making my argument for me. Technology is NET destroying jobs not creating them. How many programmers do you think it took to write the uber app? How many unemployed or soon to be unemployed taxi dispatchers do you think there are?

It is not a zero sum game. It is about the principle you choose to ignore that was pointed out to us by David Ricardo. Otherwise the farmers would still being looking for work from the early 1900s.

Logan Mohtashami says

Stay in school kids!

Most succesful people were drop outs or had really bad grades.

FortWayne says

Most succesful people were drop outs or had really bad grades

When we talk about the masses, we can't use anomaly's as the norm or even as a reference point to discuss about general education in relationship to a mass population pool

Hence why uneducated people in mass do worse than those who are education, this has always been the case when we look at the bigger picture of education economics

Logan Mohtashami says

When we talk about the masses, we can't use anomaly's as the norm or even as a reference point to discuss about general education in relationship to a mass population pool

Hence why uneducated people in mass do worse than those who are education, this has always been the case when we look at the bigger picture of education economics

Wasn't referring to it on a massive scale. I apologize for not making that clear.

Here is a take from the Wall Street Journal on the missing 2.9 million from the peak of the housing bubble on ages 25-55 ( Prime Working Age Labor Force)

Why are more 25 to 55-year-olds out of the labor force? Mostly disability and school: http://on.wsj.com/1LLo3Ie

They have been talking about 10 million more on disability for some time. Thx O

indigenous says

They have been talking about 10 million more on disability for some time.

Disability payouts more for renting demand curve economics, ....

Home buyers tend to be college educated dual income or strong single income Americans, which for all the reasons mentioned in the article, just isn't that strong in this cycle