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Why Mortgage Purchase Applications Are Near An All Time Low When Adjusted To Pop


               
2015 Sep 24, 7:26pm   28,128 views  106 comments

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http://loganmohtashami.com/2015/09/24/why-mortgage-purchase-applications-are-near-an-all-time-low-when-adjusted-to-population/

As always economics has a equilibrium factor model to it. Each cycle is unique to it's own capacity, when you look at demographic economics from 1996 -2007
It explains a lot why the demand curve is soft from 2007-2019.

You can't just make up buyers, the supply had to be there and in this cycle it wasn't even a question.

#housing

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96   _   @   2015 Oct 19, 12:12pm  

Stay in school kids!

97   _   @   2015 Oct 19, 12:14pm  

98   anonymous   2015 Oct 19, 2:24pm  

I saw on shitty yahoo finance this morning that 30 yr mortgage rates were down to 3.79% from 3.91% a week ago

Amerisave didnt send me any different quotes reflecting any actual drop. I only follow it loosely as i last re-fi'd at 3.5% in 2012, and only reason I'd re-fi again would be 15yr @ 2.5% or lower with minimal fees.

But it also feels like the time is right for the next leg down in mortgage rates

99   _   @   2015 Oct 19, 3:11pm  

errc says

But it also feels like the time is right for the next leg down in mortgage rates

If 10's can break this tough 2% 10 year channel line, and get some next day follow through action, you see a test of 1.87% on 10's which if that breaks then
you can retest the lows of the year at 1.64%

100   indigenous   @   2015 Oct 19, 5:51pm  

bob2356 says

More competitive because they are sidestepping the government protection

Governments always follows technology, it takes time for them to figure out how to sink their claws into the new technology.

bob2356 says

Ok, how is getting a radio call more efficient than getting a text? Where exactly is the savings? The only savings is using the app to automatically send out the dispatch without human intervention.

It eliminates the dispatcher and provides quicker services and holds the driver accountable, hence higher quality, faster service, for less money.

indigenous says

So once again you are making my argument for me. Technology is NET destroying jobs not creating them. How many programmers do you think it took to write the uber app? How many unemployed or soon to be unemployed taxi dispatchers do you think there are?

It is not a zero sum game. It is about the principle you choose to ignore that was pointed out to us by David Ricardo. Otherwise the farmers would still being looking for work from the early 1900s.

101   FortWayne   @   2015 Oct 19, 9:07pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Stay in school kids!

Most succesful people were drop outs or had really bad grades.

102   _   @   2015 Oct 19, 9:17pm  

FortWayne says

Most succesful people were drop outs or had really bad grades

When we talk about the masses, we can't use anomaly's as the norm or even as a reference point to discuss about general education in relationship to a mass population pool

Hence why uneducated people in mass do worse than those who are education, this has always been the case when we look at the bigger picture of education economics

103   FortWayne   @   2015 Oct 19, 9:33pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

When we talk about the masses, we can't use anomaly's as the norm or even as a reference point to discuss about general education in relationship to a mass population pool

Hence why uneducated people in mass do worse than those who are education, this has always been the case when we look at the bigger picture of education economics

Wasn't referring to it on a massive scale. I apologize for not making that clear.

104   _   @   2015 Oct 23, 12:17pm  

Here is a take from the Wall Street Journal on the missing 2.9 million from the peak of the housing bubble on ages 25-55 ( Prime Working Age Labor Force)

Why are more 25 to 55-year-olds out of the labor force? Mostly disability and school: http://on.wsj.com/1LLo3Ie

105   indigenous   @   2015 Oct 23, 12:22pm  

They have been talking about 10 million more on disability for some time. Thx O

106   _   @   2015 Oct 26, 11:41am  

indigenous says

They have been talking about 10 million more on disability for some time.

Disability payouts more for renting demand curve economics, ....

Home buyers tend to be college educated dual income or strong single income Americans, which for all the reasons mentioned in the article, just isn't that strong in this cycle

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