patrick.net

Super Saturday #RubioMath

Trump
1st Place * 2 States = 2
2nd Place * 2 States = 4
Total: 6 points

Rubio
3rd Place * 4 States = 12
Total: 12 Points

Rubio Wins!!!

Just wait until Rubio adds Puerto Rico to Minnesota, then you'll see what a national election winner he is!

Actually Rubio finished in 4th place in Maine.

Also--Cruz would never get confirmed to the Supreme Court. His fellow Senators all hate his guts.

tatupu70 says

Also--Cruz would never get confirmed. His fellow Senators all hate his guts.

He's may very well not get re-elected. It doesn't matter. With Rubio Gone, at maximum Ted will get half of Rubio's supporters - at very, very, best
Most of the rest will go to Kasich, some will bow to the inevitable and Trump will keep winning.

Meanwhile, Lindsey Graham voted against Amnesty being dependent on finishing the first 350 miles of wall not long ago. It's easy to see what the GOPe wants.

thunderlips11 says

bow to the inevitable and Trump will keep winning.

I think it's better than 50/50 that it's a brokered convention at this point.

Latest poll has Kasich ahead in MI. If he wins there, he will almost certainly take OH too. I will have the popcorn ready for the convention--it will be one for the ages.

tatupu70 says

Latest poll has Kasich ahead in MI. If he wins there, he will almost certainly take OH too. I will have the popcorn ready for the convention--it will be one for the ages.

Depends on which poll, also it won't matter if Trump comes in strong 2nd and furthers his lead in delegates (I believe MI is only winner take all if over 50% or not at all). At this point Kasich is likely hurting Cruz. Anyhow, a brokered convention is somewhat possible.

tatupu70 says

I think it's better than 50/50 that it's a brokered convention at this point.

And if Trump don't win you're going to see the WLM movement.

We're going to throttle the hypocracy and irony in this country so loud that Merkle shits her pants, from the perfect brown note.

tatupu70 says

thunderlips11 says

bow to the inevitable and Trump will keep winning.

I think it's better than 50/50 that it's a brokered convention at this point.

Latest poll has Kasich ahead in MI. If he wins there, he will almost certainly take OH too. I will have the popcorn ready for the convention--it will be one for the ages.

You're not wrong, but after March 15th it's Winner-take-all, no more proportional states.

Going forward it's all downhill for Cruz - he's running out of Dominionist Whacko States (esp. with Caucuses where Pastors and fellow Churchgoers can bully their congregation members like Alaska and Iowa) like Kansas or where he can win or come in 2nd with ease.

But even in some of those, several of his victories have been by a hair, around a 3% margin: Iowa and Alaska for example, which probably would have been Trump's if it wasn't for the "Small Town Precinct Shaming Effect" and had been regular secret vote primaries. It doesn't matter if Trump loses places like Idaho, if he wins places like Michigan and Louisiana; Cruz can't win where it counts except his home state of Texas.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/02/us/super-tuesday-results-delegates.html

As the NYT itself states:

There real question is what will the GOPe do? They're in a bind. Many GOP voters who don't vote for Trump register their 2nd choice is Trump, and I believe the last few polls that asked this question have Trump at slightly over 50% of all Republican Voters as the first and second choice. Cruz voters REALLY do not like Rubio, and don't like "Common Core Kasich" either.

So, the "Rally around the Establishment Moderate" strategy could create the opposite of the desired effect. The other possibility, "Everybody except Cruz and Trump drop out" Strategy is also not going to help, since Cruz is absolutely unelectable in the general election - too far to the social con right without the populist planks that Trump has to soften that. That means many Rubio and Kasich voters will either stay home or go Trump to ensure a chance at a November Victory. I can't imagine Cruz getting more than half of Rubio/Kasich voters at the very best, including GOPe Loyalists that Hate Trump.

The Socal2s of the Republican Party is maybe 20-25%. Maybe in 2000-2012 they could count 30-40% as diehard straight down the middle Rushbo-National Review-Weekly Standard Pro-Corporate Neocon types, but not this time. This means they cannot win without major outreach and promises to the hard right social cons and liberal republican/nationalist types, neither of whom are feeling the GOPe love right now.

Caucuses are strange. But he withstood a brutal all out , from all directions assault and still took the two biggest states. There is not much else the establishment can throw at him. I believe the caucus states are almost done? My state for example independents can vote for either party, but only for one party and indys are breaking for trump-especially with Rubio being decimated, they should consolidate with trump.

I cannot imagine an indys voting for slime ball cruz.-he looks like he slid from some satanic cult. Every time he talks, it feels like fingernails on a chalk board.

I am seeing a lot of Trump supports KKK ads in my state by the Superpacs- almost every commercial break-lets see if it makes any effect or all that money goes the way of jeb's superpac.

Everybody I know in Florida is saying the Anti-Trump bombardment is just pissing people off - including non-Republicans. It's like a constant irritating barrage. They are mailing Hillary loves Trump mailers to everybody in the state it seems.

Okay, this is just too funny. #GOPe and RubioRubes saying there's Marcomentum because he added non-state PR to his sole Minnesota victory, on the heels of 3rd and 4th placements all Super Saturday. ZZzzzzz.

http://i.imgur.com/TyTHO8j.png

So basically when people are given a choice to vote Trump wins most instances.

zzyzzx says

http://i.imgur.com/TyTHO8j.png

BINGO. Much more direct way of putting it, in one handy infographic.

http://www.khou.com/story/news/traffic/2016/03/07/naked-dancing-woman-shuts-down-highway-290/81430358/
Trump Gains Support From Teamsters

So I read somewhere that FL is closed primary and only repubs can vote?

lostand confused says

So I read somewhere that FL is closed primary and only repubs can vote?

Check with the states website. The iconographic is not 100% correct, since it source (mostly wikipedia) isn't 100%. I can attest that Maryland is a closed primary state, but I have no idea if it's winner take all. Either way Trump will probably win in MD.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/1000-blue-collar-workers-switch-parties-to-vote-for-donald-trump-in-youngstown-ohio/
1,000 Blue Collar Workers Switch Parties to Vote for Donald Trump in Youngstown, Ohio

About 1,000 Democrats in Mahoning County so far have switched their party affiliation to Republican with election officials saying several did it to vote for Donald Trump, the GOP presidential front-runner.

“We are seeing something this election cycle I’ve never seen before to this degree,” said board Chairman Mark Munroe, who’s also the county Republican chairman. “Every day I take phone calls or get voice messages from people saying they’ve been Democrats all their life and they’ve had it. They want to vote for Donald Trump. I’m surprised at the volume of inquiries we’re getting. It’s remarkable.”

A number of Democrats taking a Republican ballot when voting early at the board “say they want to vote for Trump,” said Joyce Kale-Pesta, Mahoning County Board of Elections director.

About 7,000 Mahoning County voters have cast early votes. Early voting started Feb. 17 and ends March 14, the day before the primary.

Of those 7,000, about 14 percent were Democrats who voted Republican, Kale-Pesta said. That’s about 1,000 so far.

The percentage of Democrats switching parties will grow even more, said board Vice Chairman David Betras, who also is the county Democratic chairman.

More Trump supporters in IL:
http://www.computerworld.com/article/3039353/it-careers/sen-durbin-calls-abbott-labs-it-layoffs-harsh-and-insensitive.html

socal2 says

Seems like Trump's train wreck debates are starting to catch up with him.

Yep. A couple weeks ago, the money had Trump at over 80% chance of taking the nomination. Now he's at about 65 - 67%

Cruz is up to almost 20% and "rest of field" is at mid teens (that's the category that represents Romney or someone else stepping in at the convention).

This outcome gets more and more likely as Trump manages to be his own worst enemy with the things he says. The romance could easy cool way down by late summer, even if he seems to have a lock on the needed number of delegates.

marcus says

This outcome gets more and more likely as Trump manages to be his own worst enemy with the things he says.

Trump could coast when he was on stage with 15 other people or simply getting friendly interviews by the press - or the press giving free airtime to Trump's numerous rallies. When there is only 4 people on stage, all of Trump's manifest shortcomings comes through loud and clear.

This graph below pretty much tells us all we need to know about Trump's popularity in the current primary process. These same news groups will go negative on Trump once/if the Republicans are dumb enough to make him our nominee.

Several betting companies have already paid out.

If Trump continues to win according to the polls, by the same margin he has - mid 30% - It's over. He's the nominee by May with more than enough delegates. Even if Kasich wins Ohio, it'll just take another week or two.

So says the NYT of all places.

lostand confused says

So I read somewhere that FL is closed primary and only repubs can vote?

You heard right, that's why I am now registered as a Steal the Republican party from the Republicans party voter.

socal2 says

This graph below pretty much tells us all we need to know about Trump's popularity in the current primary process. These same news groups will go negative on Trump once/if the Republicans are dumb enough to make him our nominee.

They aren't negative now? They asked him about David Duke for days, after he disavowed in no uncertain terms multiple times in multiple media vehicles inc. Social media when it first came out. GOPe Establishment Bubble.

That David Duke thing was nasy, and the next time BLM comes up somebody is going to have to pay the piper. I'm going all in calling them a hate group now.
There's no other way to describe them.

You believe what you read in the funny papers?

thunderlips11 says

They aren't negative now? They asked him about David Duke for days, after he disavowed in no uncertain terms multiple times in multiple media vehicles inc. Social media when it first came out. GOPe Establishment Bubble.

They've started to go negative about 2 weeks ago. Fox has practically been part of the Trump campaign with all of the fawning press treatment and airtime.

Here are 2 more negative reports coming out today on Trump. Old mob connections and Trump giving rich Chinese investors Visas to invest in Trump Tower.
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/trump-challenged-over-ties-to-mob-linked-gambler-100050602.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-07/trump-tower-financed-by-rich-chinese-who-invest-cash-for-visas

And WTF was Trump doing messing around with "Trump University" bilking middle class people out of $1,500 -$30,000? Seems pretty small-ball for such a big shot Billionaire to be nickle and diming people like this? Did he really need the money?

The Trump University is pure BS.
Anyone that thinks they can seminar their way to greatness needs every penny stolen from them, just to bring them back to reality.

Tenpoundbass says

I'm going all in calling them a hate group now.

There's no other way to describe them.

Only if you're a retarded racist.

They're a hate group in the sense that they see videos of police indiscriminately murdering blacks, and they hate that behavior.

This is just a natural consequence of everyone having a good camera in their pocket these days. So we've been seeing more recordings of police behavior.

Tenpoundbass says

That David Duke thing was nasy

Yeah, when they asked Trump 3 times if he wanted to repudiate David Duke and white supremacists for backing him, and he was like "ummmmmm, I'll have to look in to it, because I don't know what white supremacy means, and I've never met David Duke."

(he was obviously thinking - "damn - they represent a lot of votes - if I at least hem and haw first - they will have confirmation that I'm with them - but I have to disavow them - you know - because of that damn political correctness bs).

By the way, that transparent display by Trump on CNN was the sole reason why that SNL ad skit came in to being. They wouldn't have been so bold had Trump not made his perspective so obvious (that is that he is knowingly and very intentionally appealing to racists).

Tenpoundbass says

And you DON'T admire his resolve?

Do you bend over when you take up the can, or do you give a standing ovation?

FFS - you want to give a spoiled trust-fund baby like this one of the most powerful jobs on the planet?

Trump can sure dish it out, but when someone hits back, he threatens to sue or runs away like he did on the Fox debate and CPAC.

Even if Trump wasn't a big Crony Capitalist New York Liberal, his narcissism and temperament makes him totally unfit for this office.

Hacked Donald Trump voicemail reveals: Just some thank you messages for donating to Children's Charity. OOPS!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trumps-voicemails-hacked-by-anonymous-a6913861.html

socal2 says

FFS - you want to give a spoiled trust-fund baby like this one of the most powerful jobs on the planet?

You mean a guy who rebuilt a huge chunk of West Side Manhattan, repaired and refurbished the Mar-a-lago, has resorts, casinos, Golf Coursesand Hotels from California to Florida to Scotland?

That's not going into his best-selling books or his 14-season Television Program. He was a household name long before the Apprentice.

Or one of three "Lifelong Public Servants" (barf)?

www.youtube.com/embed/XrvdyeD7NYs

thunderlips11 says

You mean a guy who rebuilt a huge chunk of West Side Manhattan, repaired and refurbished the Mar-a-lago, has resorts, casinos, Golf Coursesand Hotels from California to Florida to Scotland?

Yes - the guy that didn't manage to drive into the ground the real estate empire he inherited from his father.

But all of the other Trump enterprises: Trump Air? Trump Vodka? Trump Steaks? Trump University? Trump Mortgage?

socal2 says

Yes - the guy that didn't manage to drive into the ground the real estate empire he inherited from his father.

But all of the other Trump enterprises: Trump Air? Trump Vodka? Trump Steaks? Trump University? Trump Mortgage?

Trump's bankruptcies: 0.2% of all business Romney's bankruptcies: 22% of all business.

Sad!

In fact Romney's businesses declared bankruptcy at 3x the rate of similar enterprises.
http://www.truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/romney-s-bain-investment-record-three-times-the-bankruptcies-of-fed-investments

Of course, Romney was aiming for bankruptcy all along with his "takeover, pay myself big management fees, downsize the company, ruin the business, then bankruptcy. Rinse. Wash. Repeat."

The Porn Actress from Yanked Cruz Ad Just Endorsed Donald Trump

www.youtube.com/embed/H8gOwzT2PY0

Meanwhile, in Establishment Elite Cloud Cuckoo Land...

PARK CITY, Utah — The presentation is an 11th-hour rebuttal to the fatalism permeating the Republican establishment: Slide by slide, state by state, it calculates how Donald Trump could be denied the nomination.

Marco Rubio wins Florida. John Kasich wins Ohio. Ted Cruz notches victories in the Midwest and Mountain West. And the results in California and other states are jumbled enough to leave Trump three dozen delegates short of the 1,237 required — forcing a contested convention in Cleveland in July.

The slide show, shared with The Washington Post by two operatives advising one of a handful of anti-Trump super PACs, encapsulates the newly emboldened view of many GOP leaders and donors. They see a clearer path to stopping Trump following his two losses and two narrower-than-expected wins on Saturday.

...
But the slow-bleed strategy is risky and hinges on Trump losing Florida, Illinois and Ohio on March 15; wins in all three would set him on track to amass the majority of delegates. Even as some party figures see glimmers of hope that Trump could be overtaken, others believe any stop-Trump efforts could prove futile.

I wonder if the campaign hacks are peddling this BS story just to make some bucks off the big Elite Donors. "Keep paying us, we can still stop Trump - honest!" Rubio is not going to win Florida, and Kasich probably (though not definitely) won't win Ohio. Note their model requires BOTH states, as well as Illinois to be lost to Trump.

Trump is doing as good or better than Cruz and Rubio combined in Illinois.
Trump is stronger than Rubio and Cruz combined in Florida.
Trump leads Kasich by 4pts in Ohio.

Honestly, Rubio dropping out before Florida would at least save Ohio for Kasich in all probability.

Ironman - just so I am clear, is your support for Trump rooted in the goal to make the Republican party a more liberal and moderate party? Romney and McCain weren't liberal enough for you, so you are reaching even farther Left to support Trump? Or do you just think that a guy who turned his inherited real estate empire into celebrity will be a better manager to "get things done" in Washington DC?

Personally, I don't want Trump "getting things done" in Washington DC if he is just going to make government bigger and more liberal. That's the problem I (along with many other Conservatives) have with Trump. Go ahead and screech "establishment" - but I don't think you know what establishment means.

On any number of core issues that are important to me, Trump is way farther to the Left than Cruz, Rubio or even Kasich. And the stuff Trump pretends to be strong on (immigration/trade), Trump will flipflop the moment he secures the nomination. He is already walking back tons of promises just in the past week when pressed directly in the debates.

The dude has no core or history to prove that he won't be anything but a big government liberal train wreck the moment he takes office.

Curious as to how all these properties Trump built in the 80s, 90s, and 2000s were inherited from his father.

Also, Free Trade as it currently exists is a proven failure for the bottom 80%. You cannot sustain traditional American life on $10/hr non-unionized no benefit McJobs, while 2/3 of H1-Bs are going to entry level positions and a long-sustained (15+ year) dearth of jobs (inc. STEM) for college graduates. America is voting that this is unacceptable.

That's unacceptable, "Conservatism" be Damned, if Conservatism doesn't mean conserving the American Way of Life.

www.youtube.com/embed/uwLWZE7nCKM

Nope, you'll have to make a decision - buy this car which is priced normally and made in the USA, or pay a 35% premium for the luxury of choosing foreign economic gains over American jobs.

Companies will have to make a decision - manufacture in the US, or be priced out of most market segments.

Tariffs on most imports, an American Tradition from 1792-1994.