patrick.net

Ironman says

Polling isn't an exact science which has many variables and errors, that's where the MOE gets figured in.... But you wouldn't understand that simple point.

You sound even more like an ignorant hillbilly than usual here.

It's true that sampling is not an exact science, and people come up with complex sampling methodologies to represent the larger population with their samples as well as possible. The different pollsters are all using different sampling methodologies. Their reports always describe their sampling methodologies.

But Statistical inference methods, using confidence intervals, margin of error, and so on, this is Math, and it is in fact an exact science, that they are all doing the same (maybe not all the same confidence intervals - but that would be published in their fine print) that you apparently know nothing about. I'm sure you might have checked it out at some point, and been scared by all the greek letters and formulas. That's okay, I wouldn't judge that. But if you were even slightly intelligent, you would at least know and admit that you don't understand it.

Why did debbie shultz step down just before the convention?

Why do you think she can't keep her word on such a simple promise, wrt releasing the transcripts from her speeches at GS etc.? If her words were so benign, why not shut everyone up?

She is dishonest. Everytime she opens her mouth, i cringe.

errc says

Why did debbie shultz step down just before the convention?

Something about some leaked emails that seemed to indicate that the DNC (which is not HIllary) preferred Hillary. That is unseemly, but not surprising. Maybe they thought Bernie was unelectable by moderates. It seemed like back in previous cycles the RNC preferred not to even allow Ron Paul to participate in the process. Nobody knew why he couldn't get in more debates or be treated like a legit candidate, even though he was very popular. What was up with that ? Whose doing was that ? I assume some big shots in the Party. It would have never occurred to me that it was GWB, or later McCain pulling the strings on that. What makes you think this was HIllary ?

errc says

Why did debbie shultz step down just before the convention?

Because she's a liar. She lied to the public, and the DNC leaks busted her ass bad. Countless emails at the DNC between herself and a multitude of individuals on how to sabotage Bernie and help Hillary, to the point where Atheist/Jew baiting Bernie in the South was openly suggested as an idea, all the while Wasserman-Schultz declaiming left and right she had no bias.

She was replaced with Donna "Earth Tone Gravitas" Brazile, who helped Gore lose in 2000.

errc says

, wrt releasing the transcripts from her speeches at GS

Probably because her people analyzed it and found two possible phrases that could become the next "you didn't build that" right before the election. Or maybe she was critical of some policy of Obama's. Who knows ? IT's politics. But that was just a private speech that was given. That's really so insignificant compared to Trump not releasing Tax returns.

That's really so insignificant compared to Trump not releasing Tax returns.

--------------

Your poor reasoning skills are showing. The IRS audited Trump. Did they press any charges? What crime did he commit?

Hillary is the one claiming she will crack down Wall Street and insert strong regulations, to help the average folk.

Are you not worried about her history of reneging, and flip flopping? Not the least bit curious as to why all these groups that she claims to want to punish, are handing her insane amounts of cash?

I'm most concerned with the Clinton voters lack of vetting, and that they spend all day and night enamored with everything Trump. Spend some time on the candidate you plan to vote for. Have some conviction. Stand for something

We’ve all read how Elizabeth Warren convinced Hillary to oppose efforts to make it harder for consumers to escape from credit card debt by filing for bankruptcy. Warren recalls, “She said, ‘Professor Warren, we’ve got to stop that awful bill.’ ”

Then, as a newly elected senator representing Wall St, Hillary voted for the bill, which had strong support from the banking and credit card industries.

The New York Times:

Charles J. Tabb, a law professor at the University of Illinois who opposed the legislation, said Mrs. Clinton’s vote “shows the power of the consumer credit industry and our campaign finance world.”

“She did a 180 once she became senator,” he said. “It was galling.”

During the 2008 campaign, asked if she regretted her vote, she said, “Sure, I do. I was happy that it never became law.” Last year, she changed her story, blaming the whole thing on Joe Biden.

errc says

Your poor reasoning skills are showing. The IRS audited Trump. Did they press any charges? What crime did he commit?

It's not about that. How much does he pay in taxes ? What are his sources of income. He says he's worth 10 billion. Maybe he's not even worth one. Candidate for PResident ALWAYS show their tax returns. Charitable deductions ? I think the amount he gives to charity, being a billionaire and all is important. It is to me. What Hillary said in a private speech to Goldman. Sorry, not all that interesting, and I don't feel that voters should feel entitled to see that speech in the same way they should feel entitled to see Trumps Tax returns. Okay she said she would, and she changed her mind, and I know the reasons are political. You're the one whose reasoning skills are showing if you really think this is significant.

errc says

Are you not worried about her history of reneging, and flip flopping?

YOu mean like on marriage inequality ? No. But I'm not naive, and I haven't heard her claim she is going to punish Wall Street.

errc says

Not the least bit curious as to why all these groups that she claims to want to punish, are handing her insane amounts of cash?

I predict Obama is going to be making insane amounts of cash on the speaking circuit, including to Golman. People will try to claim that it's some quid pro quo. I think it's just that they like to have speakers from high levels in government.

As for that one vote, I don't know. I guess you may have actually found something that I will agree is significant. COngratulations. ALthough, votes made when a senator knows it's going to lose are sometimes made for strange reasons. I'm not defending it. I will note that Warren is strongly behind Hillary as is Bernie.

errc says

The IRS audited Trump. Did they press any charges? What crime did he commit?

Diversionary strawman. It's not about crime. One wonders why the #orangedouchebag thinks the condition of being under audit would be grounds to withhold his tax returns. Do you even question the premise? I predict your answer will start with the word Hillary or Clinton.

Marcus is an asshat.
He won't see that, so I'd appreciate a quote.

Yes, for now it seems to have leveled off at a 2 to 4 percent lead for CLinton.

The CEO of America went to a "Trade Show" and called his employees lazy in front of peers and media.

Hillary blasted half the voters as "Deplorable".

When you are desperate enough to attack the voters, it's over.

The internal polls must be horrible for Hillary.

marcus says

Yes, for now it seems to have leveled off at a 2 to 4 percent lead for CLinton.

Yeah, in NJ.

thunderlips11 is deplorable says

When you are desperate enough to attack the voters, it's over.

The internal polls must be horrible for Hillary.

Yep.

Booger says

marcus says

Yes, for now it seems to have leveled off at a 2 to 4 percent lead for CLinton.

Yeah, in NJ.

I was referring to the average of all states over a bunch of different pollsters when I said Clinton is up 2 - 4.

There's a reason why ZZYZZX only shows one pollster. I get it, what you guys want to believe. When are you going to start wanting to believe the truth ? I guarantee that if Trump was winning, I would just be sad, I wouldn't be posting a bunch of BS polls from a single pollster.

Look at one state and the kind of data 538 uses. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

538 has Clinton with a bit of an uptick, but you know, that's just based on an analysis of many pollsters in all 50 states. I said I would wait till after the first debate before bursting your bubble again, but decided to do this one, so that ZZYZZX doesn't let his delusions get too far out of hand.

Nate is still a believer.

Tenpoundbass says

Nate is still a believer.

Yes, and statistical analysis is just a cover for people pretending to analyze the collective opinion out there.

marcus says

There's a reason why ZZYZZX only shows one pollster.

Just FYI: Stock Market is hitting highs just as Trump's Odds and Polling is vastly improving.

The last refuge of #NeverTrump will be to connect a potential Trump win with Stock Market disaster.

Also, Hillary has an October Surprise, which is why she's going all out McCarthy on Russia with Trump, so beware! Keep in mind corruption in the Ukraine is worse than ever before, it's so bad the Office of the Prosecution in Ukraine "lost" the US Taxpayer money they were given to implement anti-corruption reforms!

Now the imbeciles who voted for Clinton in the primary will get what they deserve.

thunderlips11 is deplorable says

Just FYI: Stock Market is hitting highs just as Trump's Odds and Polling is vastly improving.

So what happens if you jumped on it when they had Trump at 8% chance of winning, but the day before the election they have him at 90% chance of winning.
Do they have to payout the longshot odds I bet on at the time, or the favorite odds that they post when the books end?

I know in horse racing you end up getting screwed that's why you keep your mouth shut at the track when you think you got an angle on a long shot horse.

Tenpoundbass says

thunderlips11 is deplorable says

Just FYI: Stock Market is hitting highs just as Trump's Odds and Polling is vastly improving.

They are marking the price up, because they need to sell if he wins.

Trump is losing by less and less all the time. But I still don't see how you're going to find enough uneducated white haters before November, for Trump to win.

LA Times has him up +6 now.

The bitch is going down fast...

marcus says

But I still don't see how you're going to find enough uneducated white haters before November, for Trump to win.

https://patrick.net/LA+Libs+schooled+in+Diversity+by+the+Trump+volunteer+campaign.

Romos done and OUT! Trump wins AGAIN!

http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/latino/mrc-latino-staff/2016/09/14/univision-anchors-electioneering-sparks-ramos-must-go-drive

Ha!

http://dcwhispers.com/trump-campaign-goes-spending-mode-final-weeks-election-race/#Cq5B9afeDMFqHkX9.99

Trump Campaign Goes Into Spending Mode In Final Weeks Of Election Race

This month alone, the campaign is on pace to spend some $30 million dollars on advertising, with emphasis on digital ads primarily created by the Texas-based firm, Giles-Parscale. These ads reflect Trump’s ongoing meme domination via an online presence that consistently dwarfs that of his opponent, Hillary Clinton, whose own campaign appears mired in a 1990’s mindset, and is spending hundreds of millions of dollars with little to show for it beyond collapsing poll numbers.

http://dcwhispers.com/hillary-campaign-nightmare-trump-wins-latino-vote-latest-poll/

We'll need our Latino American voters the (insert nationality here) voter loves the idea of an America that puts their HB1 visa cousin over White, Black or Latino American workers every time.

That's the best picture I have ever seen of Hillary by the way.

Ted Cruz just endorsed Trump.

As it stands now, Florida is going to be a Trump win, I'd say by 3% of the vote.

Feel free to say I told you so if I am wrong.

http://truthfeed.com/breaking-new-poll-trump-ahead-in-colorado/25860/

TRUMP AHEAD IN COLORADO!

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/breaking-breitbart-gravis-poll-trump-hillary-tied-minnesota/

Trump-Hillary Tied Up …IN MINNESOTA!

Donald Trump continues his surge in the state polling. Breitbart-Gravis released a series of polls on Tuesday. The race in blue state Minnesota is tied up at 43 to 43.

Reports coming in that Hillary is running ads in Minnesota. Now if it's a solid blue state, why is she doing that???

#NeverForgetBrexit

New Hampshire governor just endorsed Trump

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/780813996739981316