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marcus
2016 Sep 5, 10:49pm
Okay, I'll answer one more of your trolls, you fricking moron.
You think the MOE of that table I posted is 3%?? Really? Then, somehow you extrapolated it DOWN to 1%?? Really??
No, I was responding to this (see the nine shaded polls)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
that go with my chart, see the shaded, the average MOE s about 3%.
you think the poll averages are determined by the Margin of Error and not the percentage of votes for each candidate?? Really?
No, I think that if you are looking at an average of polls number that represent the average of 9 different polls (see link) , the margin of error on that number, is going to be WAY lower than the average MOE of the nine separate polls. If you had any idea what margin of error means, you would not argue this.
This was a response to this:
Ironman says
Plus, the Margin of Error is 3% - 4%, so your chart has them dead even (even with the over-sampling).
Are you going to deny that you think or thought that you could apply a 3 to 4% MOE to "my chart ?" (not even now addressing why your application was very stupid).
But typical asshole CIC, knows he's wrong, so he's going to say I'm arguing something that I'm not. Actually I'm very sure that you have no idea why you're wrong. Why don't you read about margin of error and what it means, so you can feel like you learned something today.
Is it any wonder that I ignore 95% of your comments ?
marcus
2016 Sep 5, 11:44pm
Actually, it's a little interesting, so instead of finishing my work here, I'll explain a little. The interesting thing is, what would a margin of error on an average of polls even mean?
First what does it mean on an individual poll ? It depends on the confidence interval, and to understand that you should read about sampling distributions, but let's say they use a 95% confidence interval. Then a 3% margin of error means that if they conducted 1000s of different samples of the same size using the same methodology, 95% of these samples would result in a percentage within plus or minus 3% of the percentage found in the poll.
So how can you talk about the margin of error for an average of polls ? You can't really. But if you do, it would have to mean the value you got as an average for a number of polls, where all polls were repeated as complete sets. If 1000s of times, sets of polls are conducted, with different samples for each of the polls, using the same methodologies for each, then the margin of error would refer to a plus or minus estimate around the average you got, determining an interval in which the average would fall for say 95% of the times a set of polls was taken and averaged. This is a theoretical (see sampling distributions) of what the Math is describing.. All these thousands of sets of samples would come from the same population at the same time with the same unique methodologies for each of the different samples taken for each of the different polls. .
Without getting too deeply in to the math, it should be intuitively obvious that if say nine numbers are each bouncing randomly in an interval of plus or minus 3 each around specific values. The average of those nine numbers is bouncing around in a much smaller interval. (note: the possible interval may roughly the same but the interval the value is in 95% of the time is substantially narrower)
FNWGMOBDVZXDNW
2016 Sep 6, 6:08am
Trump is winning the most important race of all - the race to a giant audience for the most terrific media company ever.
junkmail
2016 Sep 6, 12:12pm
Not anymore, dickhead Pussy Ultra57 didn't close his HTML on italics...
Lol. Yeah but there should be an automatic php clean or tidy after every post.
x?php
$buffer = ob_get_clean();
$tidy = new tidy();
$clean = $tidy->repairString($buffer);
echo $clean;
?>
Rew
2016 Sep 6, 3:13pm
Trump is winning the most important race of all - the race to a giant audience for the most terrific media company ever.
Many would agree with that notion. He has hired the right mix of people into his staff, for sure.
He still has odds to hold onto Texas though. A great feat. ;)
marcus
2016 Sep 6, 6:55pm
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When does Marcus start crying???
So called independents are mostly republicans that don't want to admit it, because they know republicans these days are douchebags.
The reasons polls are adjusted in a way where more democrats are included, is that a huge percentage of those who identify as "independents" are actually republicans. They just don't want to admit it, because they know that republicans are often morons that listen to Fox News and Brietbart. So they call themselves "independents." I know some of these people. The funny thing is that a lot of them will vote for Trump, even though they hate him and think he's an idiot, and very risky, because of how much they've been programmed to hate Hillary. IF you ask them to defend their position on Hillary they can't. It's just a feeling.
Propaganda works.
But yes, I might have to do a little private crying, just I like I did on 9/11, if Trump wins. Since adolescence, I never cry because of physical pain, but I can be moved to cry by grief or extreme emotion. And yes Trumps election would be rough for me.
marcus
2016 Sep 6, 7:01pm
so I can get brutally punished by a troll moron for explaining something a little deeper than superficial
Yes. Such punishment. He really showed me.
Well, you can post paragraphs of absolute bullshit, which you're great at. Or, you can just go with the basic definition:
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Polling isn't an exact science which has many variables and errors, that's where the MOE gets figured in.... But you wouldn't understand that simple point.
When you look up *low information voter* in the dictionary, they have CIC's photo there.
zzyzzx
2016 Sep 6, 7:01pm
Latest Polls Show Trump Up or Tied in Blue States Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin
The latest Reuters-Ipsos polling shows Republican Donald Trump up or tied with Hillary Clinton in several blue states.
** Iowa – Trump 44% – Clinton 41%
** Maine – Trump 42% – Clinton 42%
** Michigan – Trump 42% – Clinton 41%
** New Hampshire – Trump 45% – Clinton 44%
** Ohio – Trump 46% – Clinton 43%
** Wisconsin – Trump 38% – Clinton 38%
because of how much they've been programmed to hate Hillary. IF you ask them to defend their position on Hillary they can't. It's just a feeling.
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Why would anyone ever waste one second "programming " people to hate Hillary, when all it takes is for people to be exposed to her, hear her speak (lie), and they come to that conclusion all on their own.
You keep repeating this line that nobody can explain why. That it's just a feeling. However, infinite people have given infinite reasons and instances as to why, and strangely, you disregard every last one of them as rubbish. Every time. Why do you think that is?
Tenpoundbass
2016 Sep 6, 7:12pm
I looked over at RCP earlier they are keeping the faith. They have her up 15 or more on several polls.
marcus
2016 Sep 6, 7:16pm
given infinite reasons and instances as to why, and strangely, you disregard every last one of them as rubbish
Because I look at the infinite attempts to pin BS on her, like Vince Fosters Death, most the white house scandals, Beghazi. IT's mostly pure bull shit, and if you find non partisan objective types, say from other countries, they agree.
You're the perfect example, with your 150 IQ, I've asked you many times, PLEASE PLEASE just tell me what the few worst examples of her sliminess or lack of integrity are. You're 100% guaranteed to resort to some kind of supposed fuzzy logic, or something like "it's too obvious to have to explain it." What bullshit !!!
If you really had a 150 IQ, you would be able to see how incredibly laughable it is. How laughable you are, with your beliefs that have no foundation in facts or logic. . You really do depend a lot on those feelings of yours don't you ? By the way, are you female ?
No fucking way will you ever answer me, because you can't without making a moron out of yourself. I dare you to. Just the 3 worst things she's done. If it's because she never does REALLY bad shit, but it's just constant small bad stuff. Give me some representative examples.
marcus
2016 Sep 6, 7:24pm
I looked over at RCP earlier they are keeping the faith. They have her up 15 or more on several polls.
Those would be state polls. They have her down to 3.3% nationally on average of polls.
Trump needs to talk.
Just the 3 worst things she's done
----------------
In no particular order
Rigged the primaries to defeat Bernie
Pay to play at State where she took money in exchange for political favors from as many unsavory actors as she could manage
Supported War in Iraq, and the domestic spying network
She sucks at everything. Not her marketing teams bullshit heap of lies on her campaign website. I mean her actions over the years, reality, what actually matters.
She approved a ton of shady arms deals
She's been against marriage equality forever
She's in bed with Wall Street. Literally
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And to be fair and equitable, I'll even say something nice.
She is as good a politician as we have ever seen. She can lie with the best of them. She can flip flop and do a 180 so fast, you never see it coming. She is great at sacrificing her own beliefs, in order to tell you what you want to hear. And she's not the Orange POS that's running as a RINO opposite her
marcus
2016 Sep 6, 9:23pm
Rigged the primaries to defeat Bernie
Ar we talking super delegates or what ? I disagree. Did she do something illegal ?
Pay to play at State where she took money in exchange for political favors from as many unsavory actors as she could manage
One or two real examples of this ? OR is it because Alex Jones and TPB said so ?
Supported War in Iraq, and the domestic spying network
Yes, that's annoying. But they had a lot of people convinced that was a good idea after 9/11 we were all traumatized.
As I thought. You could come up with as much on anyone that's been doing stuff in government for a long time. As for marriage equality. I was always fine with not using the word "marriage" and to use civil unions as long as they get marriage rights. Who cares ? The important thing is the rights, not that everyone else is willing to call them married. They're going to consider themselves and call themselves married even if it's a civil union with all the rights and benefits of marriage.
Yeah, she and Obama waited for the majority to be on board with marriage equality, which I would have probably done too. States were doing their thing. I have zero problem with that.
This country changed really fast on that issue. If people want to be critical of politicians for not leading the way better, that's stupid. It changed the way it should, from the bottom up, majority opinion.
marcus
2016 Sep 6, 9:38pm
Polling isn't an exact science which has many variables and errors, that's where the MOE gets figured in.... But you wouldn't understand that simple point.
You sound even more like an ignorant hillbilly than usual here.
It's true that sampling is not an exact science, and people come up with complex sampling methodologies to represent the larger population with their samples as well as possible. The different pollsters are all using different sampling methodologies. Their reports always describe their sampling methodologies.
But Statistical inference methods, using confidence intervals, margin of error, and so on, this is Math, and it is in fact an exact science, that they are all doing the same (maybe not all the same confidence intervals - but that would be published in their fine print) that you apparently know nothing about. I'm sure you might have checked it out at some point, and been scared by all the greek letters and formulas. That's okay, I wouldn't judge that. But if you were even slightly intelligent, you would at least know and admit that you don't understand it.
Why do you think she can't keep her word on such a simple promise, wrt releasing the transcripts from her speeches at GS etc.? If her words were so benign, why not shut everyone up?
She is dishonest. Everytime she opens her mouth, i cringe.
marcus
2016 Sep 6, 10:07pm
Why did debbie shultz step down just before the convention?
Something about some leaked emails that seemed to indicate that the DNC (which is not HIllary) preferred Hillary. That is unseemly, but not surprising. Maybe they thought Bernie was unelectable by moderates. It seemed like back in previous cycles the RNC preferred not to even allow Ron Paul to participate in the process. Nobody knew why he couldn't get in more debates or be treated like a legit candidate, even though he was very popular. What was up with that ? Whose doing was that ? I assume some big shots in the Party. It would have never occurred to me that it was GWB, or later McCain pulling the strings on that. What makes you think this was HIllary ?
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Sep 6, 10:09pm
Why did debbie shultz step down just before the convention?
Because she's a liar. She lied to the public, and the DNC leaks busted her ass bad. Countless emails at the DNC between herself and a multitude of individuals on how to sabotage Bernie and help Hillary, to the point where Atheist/Jew baiting Bernie in the South was openly suggested as an idea, all the while Wasserman-Schultz declaiming left and right she had no bias.
She was replaced with Donna "Earth Tone Gravitas" Brazile, who helped Gore lose in 2000.
marcus
2016 Sep 6, 10:10pm
, wrt releasing the transcripts from her speeches at GS
Probably because her people analyzed it and found two possible phrases that could become the next "you didn't build that" right before the election. Or maybe she was critical of some policy of Obama's. Who knows ? IT's politics. But that was just a private speech that was given. That's really so insignificant compared to Trump not releasing Tax returns.
That's really so insignificant compared to Trump not releasing Tax returns.
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Your poor reasoning skills are showing. The IRS audited Trump. Did they press any charges? What crime did he commit?
Hillary is the one claiming she will crack down Wall Street and insert strong regulations, to help the average folk.
Are you not worried about her history of reneging, and flip flopping? Not the least bit curious as to why all these groups that she claims to want to punish, are handing her insane amounts of cash?
I'm most concerned with the Clinton voters lack of vetting, and that they spend all day and night enamored with everything Trump. Spend some time on the candidate you plan to vote for. Have some conviction. Stand for something
We’ve all read how Elizabeth Warren convinced Hillary to oppose efforts to make it harder for consumers to escape from credit card debt by filing for bankruptcy. Warren recalls, “She said, ‘Professor Warren, we’ve got to stop that awful bill.’ â€
Then, as a newly elected senator representing Wall St, Hillary voted for the bill, which had strong support from the banking and credit card industries.
The New York Times:
Charles J. Tabb, a law professor at the University of Illinois who opposed the legislation, said Mrs. Clinton’s vote “shows the power of the consumer credit industry and our campaign finance world.â€
“She did a 180 once she became senator,†he said. “It was galling.â€
During the 2008 campaign, asked if she regretted her vote, she said, “Sure, I do. I was happy that it never became law.†Last year, she changed her story, blaming the whole thing on Joe Biden.
marcus
2016 Sep 7, 6:21am
Your poor reasoning skills are showing. The IRS audited Trump. Did they press any charges? What crime did he commit?
It's not about that. How much does he pay in taxes ? What are his sources of income. He says he's worth 10 billion. Maybe he's not even worth one. Candidate for PResident ALWAYS show their tax returns. Charitable deductions ? I think the amount he gives to charity, being a billionaire and all is important. It is to me. What Hillary said in a private speech to Goldman. Sorry, not all that interesting, and I don't feel that voters should feel entitled to see that speech in the same way they should feel entitled to see Trumps Tax returns. Okay she said she would, and she changed her mind, and I know the reasons are political. You're the one whose reasoning skills are showing if you really think this is significant.
Are you not worried about her history of reneging, and flip flopping?
YOu mean like on marriage inequality ? No. But I'm not naive, and I haven't heard her claim she is going to punish Wall Street.
Not the least bit curious as to why all these groups that she claims to want to punish, are handing her insane amounts of cash?
I predict Obama is going to be making insane amounts of cash on the speaking circuit, including to Golman. People will try to claim that it's some quid pro quo. I think it's just that they like to have speakers from high levels in government.
As for that one vote, I don't know. I guess you may have actually found something that I will agree is significant. COngratulations. ALthough, votes made when a senator knows it's going to lose are sometimes made for strange reasons. I'm not defending it. I will note that Warren is strongly behind Hillary as is Bernie.
neplusultra57
2016 Sep 7, 9:02am
The IRS audited Trump. Did they press any charges? What crime did he commit?
Diversionary strawman. It's not about crime. One wonders why the #orangedouchebag thinks the condition of being under audit would be grounds to withhold his tax returns. Do you even question the premise? I predict your answer will start with the word Hillary or Clinton.
marcus
2016 Sep 10, 11:29am
Yes, for now it seems to have leveled off at a 2 to 4 percent lead for CLinton.
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Sep 10, 3:14pm
The CEO of America went to a "Trade Show" and called his employees lazy in front of peers and media.
Hillary blasted half the voters as "Deplorable".
When you are desperate enough to attack the voters, it's over.
The internal polls must be horrible for Hillary.
Booger
2016 Sep 10, 3:52pm
Yes, for now it seems to have leveled off at a 2 to 4 percent lead for CLinton.
Yeah, in NJ.
joshuatrio
2016 Sep 10, 4:00pm
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
When you are desperate enough to attack the voters, it's over.
The internal polls must be horrible for Hillary.
Yep.
marcus
2016 Sep 10, 5:59pm
Yes, for now it seems to have leveled off at a 2 to 4 percent lead for CLinton.
Yeah, in NJ.
I was referring to the average of all states over a bunch of different pollsters when I said Clinton is up 2 - 4.
There's a reason why ZZYZZX only shows one pollster. I get it, what you guys want to believe. When are you going to start wanting to believe the truth ? I guarantee that if Trump was winning, I would just be sad, I wouldn't be posting a bunch of BS polls from a single pollster.
Look at one state and the kind of data 538 uses. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/
538 has Clinton with a bit of an uptick, but you know, that's just based on an analysis of many pollsters in all 50 states. I said I would wait till after the first debate before bursting your bubble again, but decided to do this one, so that ZZYZZX doesn't let his delusions get too far out of hand.
marcus
2016 Sep 10, 7:34pm
Nate is still a believer.
Yes, and statistical analysis is just a cover for people pretending to analyze the collective opinion out there.
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Sep 12, 3:20pm
Just FYI: Stock Market is hitting highs just as Trump's Odds and Polling is vastly improving.
The last refuge of #NeverTrump will be to connect a potential Trump win with Stock Market disaster.
Also, Hillary has an October Surprise, which is why she's going all out McCarthy on Russia with Trump, so beware! Keep in mind corruption in the Ukraine is worse than ever before, it's so bad the Office of the Prosecution in Ukraine "lost" the US Taxpayer money they were given to implement anti-corruption reforms!
Now the imbeciles who voted for Clinton in the primary will get what they deserve.
Tenpoundbass
2016 Sep 14, 6:24pm
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
Just FYI: Stock Market is hitting highs just as Trump's Odds and Polling is vastly improving.
So what happens if you jumped on it when they had Trump at 8% chance of winning, but the day before the election they have him at 90% chance of winning.
Do they have to payout the longshot odds I bet on at the time, or the favorite odds that they post when the books end?
I know in horse racing you end up getting screwed that's why you keep your mouth shut at the track when you think you got an angle on a long shot horse.
marcus
2016 Sep 14, 10:20pm
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
Just FYI: Stock Market is hitting highs just as Trump's Odds and Polling is vastly improving.
They are marking the price up, because they need to sell if he wins.
marcus
2016 Sep 14, 10:32pm
Trump is losing by less and less all the time. But I still don't see how you're going to find enough uneducated white haters before November, for Trump to win.
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http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/11/media/donald-trump-univision-settle-miss-usa/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom
#trump
Hey HO! Ramos has got to GO!
This is what Liberal electioneering will get you, and trying to place every Latino on the Lbieral plantation in their place along side depressed gheto blacks that the Liberals kick back down every time they try to crawl out.
http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/latino/mrc-latino-staff/2016/09/14/univision-anchors-electioneering-sparks-ramos-must-go-drive