patrick.net

All of the support for the National Popular Vote bill has not come from blue states.

In the 41 red, blue, and purple states surveyed, overall support has been in the 67-81% range - in rural states, in small states, in Southern and border states, in big states, and in other states polled.

Supporters include former Senator Fred Thompson (R–TN), Governor Jim Edgar (R–IL), Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO), and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R–GA)

More than 2,610 state legislators (in 50 states) have sponsored and/or cast recorded votes in favor of the National Popular Vote bill.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 34 state legislative chambers in 23 rural, small, medium, large, Democratic, Republican and purple states with 261 electoral votes, including one house in Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), and Oklahoma (7), and both houses in Colorado (9).

The closest popular-vote election count over the last 130+ years of American history (in 1960), had a nationwide margin of more than 100,000 popular votes. The closest electoral-vote election in American history (in 2000) was determined by 537 votes, all in one state, when there was a lead of 537,179 (1,000 times more) popular votes nationwide.

For a national popular vote election to be as easy to switch as 2000, it would have to be two hundred times closer than the 1960 election--and, in popular-vote terms, forty times closer than 2000 itself.

Which system offers vote suppressors or fraudulent voters a better shot at success for a smaller effort?

Since 2006, the bill has been introduced in legislatures in all 50 states. The text of the Compact is virtually the same in every state. Each state's bill(s) are easy to find. Wikipedia lists each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

We do and would vote state by state. Each state manages its own election and is prepared to conduct a recount.

The National Popular Vote compact is patterned directly after existing federal law and requires each state to treat as "conclusive" each other state's "final determination" of its vote for President. No state has any power to examine or judge the presidential election returns of any other state now or under the National Popular Vote compact.

The current presidential election system makes a repeat of 2000 more likely. All you need is a thin and contested margin in a single state with enough electoral votes to make a difference. It's much less likely that the national vote will be close enough that voting irregularities in a single area will swing enough net votes to make a difference. If we'd had National Popular Vote in 2000, a recount in Florida would not have been an issue.

The implication that recounts will be likely and messy with National Popular Vote is distracting.

No recount, much less a nationwide recount, would have been warranted in any of the nation’s 57 presidential elections if the outcome had been based on the nationwide count.
The state-by-state winner-take-all system is not a firewall, but instead causes unnecessary fires.
“It’s an arsonist itching to burn down the whole neighborhood by torching a single house.” Hertzberg

The 2000 presidential election was an artificial crisis created because of Bush's lead of 537 popular votes in Florida. Gore's nationwide lead was 537,179 popular votes (1,000 times larger). Given the miniscule number of votes that are changed by a typical statewide recount (averaging only 274 votes); no one would have requested a recount or disputed the results in 2000 if the national popular vote had controlled the outcome. Indeed, no one (except perhaps almanac writers and trivia buffs) would have cared that one of the candidates happened to have a 537-vote margin in Florida.

Recounts are far more likely in the current system of state by-state winner-take-all methods.

The possibility of recounts should not even be a consideration in debating the merits of a national popular vote. No one has ever suggested that the possibility of a recount constitutes a valid reason why state governors or U.S. Senators, for example, should not be elected by a popular vote.

The question of recounts comes to mind in connection with presidential elections only because the current system creates artificial crises and unnecessary disputes.

Given that there is a recount only once in about 160 statewide elections, and given there is a presidential election once every four years, one would expect a recount about once in 640 years with the National Popular Vote. The actual probability of a close national election would be even less than that because recounts are less likely with larger pools of votes.

The average change in the margin of victory as a result of a statewide recount was a mere 296 votes in a 10-year study of 2,884 elections.

The common nationwide date for meeting of the Electoral College has been set by federal law as the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December. With both the current system and the National Popular Vote, all counting, recounting, and judicial proceedings must be conducted so as to reach a "final determination" prior to the meeting of the Electoral College. In particular, the U.S. Supreme Court has made it clear that the states are expected to make their "final determination" six days before the Electoral College meets.

If Ohio or Georgia declare that either of those states cast 10 trillion votes for the Republican nominee, OBVIOUSLY that would not be accepted as legitimate by anyone.

The 2000 presidential election was determined by a mere 537 popular votes in Florida.

otto says

Which system offers vote suppressors or fraudulent voters a better shot at success for a smaller effort?

The paperless system, obviously.

otto says

If Ohio or Georgia declare that either of those states cast 10 trillion votes for the Republican nominee, OBVIOUSLY that would not be accepted as legitimate by anyone.

And yet, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has no mechanism for other states to challenge or recount it, even though it would OBVIOUSLY not be legitimate. There is also no mechanism to challenge fraud or error on a more likely scale, e.g. a million paperless votes for Democrats getting reassigned to Republicans in a state that has at least 5 million total. Georgia and Ohio each have 10 million people, and in a Presidential election each can produce at least 5 million votes. Florida can also (notoriously) produce 6 million votes in a Presidential election; why do you want the votes of California subjugated to the "Honorable" Katherine Harris, former GW Bush Campaign Chair and Florida Secretary of State?

otto says

All of the support for the National Popular Vote bill has not come from blue states.

Let me rephrase: all of the actual enactments have come from blue jurisdictions, i.e. blue states and DC. As with Obamneycare, Republicans kept their fingerprints off the enactment, letting gullible Democrats insist on doing their dirty work for them.

"Under federal law an objection to a state’s Electoral votes may be made to the President of the Senate during Congress’s counting of Electoral votes in January. The objection must be made in writing and signed by at least one Senator and one member of the House of Representatives. Both the Senate and the House of Representatives debate the objection separately. Debate is limited to two hours. After the debate, both the Senate and the House of Representatives rejoin and both must agree to reject the votes.

In January 2005, Ohio’s 20 Electoral votes were challenged. After debate, the Senate and the House failed to agree to reject the votes. Ohio’s 20 Electoral votes for President Bush and Vice President Cheney were counted."

https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/print_friendly.html?page=faq_content.html&title=U.%20S.%20Electoral%20College%3A%20Frequently%20Asked%20Questions#contestvotes