patrick.net

First some nomenclature and definitions

MOI = months of inventory
AI = absolute inventory
MS = monthly sales

MOI = AI / MS

I did not read the whole thread, but I agree with the main thrust of it; that MOI is often not a good measure of anything significant, and also that the current MOI is about the same (nationally) as in the peak bubble year of ~2006.

Should there not be a graph that shows AI, the unadulterated numbers of houses listed for sale over time? Dividing the AI by some ill-defined count of monthly sales (MS) is a problem with the MOI data. The MS has probably been additionally massaged with seasonal adjustments and multi-month averages in some undefined/unknown way, which is what makes the MOI so useless.

To sum up: one should carefully study both the numerator and the denominator of MOI = AI/MS, when trying to ascertain whether "it is different now than at time X". MOI surely has its uses, but Realtor/insider claims that MOI are at exceptionally low levels should be met with considerable skepticism.

Thanks to Logan for posting some graphs of historical MOI levels, as well as getting under the hood of the hidden MS numbers by posting sales volume graphs. But I would still like to see the exact MS data that the realtors use when publishing MOI, and shown over 30-40-50 years, and compare it with unadulterated raw sales count data.

justme says

I did not read the whole thread, but I agree with the main thrust of it; that MOI is often not a good measure of anything significant, and also that the current MOI is about the same (nationally) as in the peak bubble year of ~2006.

wrong on both accounts.

In 2006, in Phoenix, there were over 60,000 homes for sale on the mls, and 3000 sold in July. 20 months of inventory. Today, there are 25,000 roughly for sale and 7500 sold in the past 30 days. If you can't see a difference, and think about how different a buying experience a ratio of over 20 homes for sale compared to sold in 30 days, and 3.5 makes, you have serious critical thinking issues.

justme says

The MS has probably been additionally massaged with seasonal adjustments a

nope. straight data. Though, since sales actually are seasonal, a higher ratio in winter wouldn't be that bad as 75% of contracts are written between march and july.

In my zip code, there are 85 single family homes for sale, and 65 sold in the past 30 days. Anything decent gets a contract in a couple weeks, only crap sits around. Prices are going up quickly, and will continue to do so all this year.

justme says

but Realtor/insider claims that MOI are at exceptionally low levels should be met with considerable skepticism.

It is real, you are just either paranoid or stupid. Don't buy, watch prices go up, come back to this thread in a year, let me know how it worked out.

Strategist says

CCGI up 100% in just 4 days. 50% jump today.

IF UNXL ends up $3 I will buy drinks and Dinner that's a 200% bagger

Just for starters, what was it about the word "nationally" that went over your head?

Your zip code (what is it?) and national number are two different things.

justme says

Just for starters, what was it about the word "nationally" that went over your head?

there is no "national" real estate market, there are thousands of local markets.

MANY areas are showing low inventory, and all that needs to matter to you, is your area.

Miami condos on the other hand , are up at like 13 months inventory, and prices are likely to soften over the next year. Either that number will come down, or prices will enter a sustained fall.

Don't worry, logjam will be along to post some graphs and charts and thesis that look negative for the market, and you can stay in your delusional bubble. I will continue making shitloads of money from houses.

Demographic economics is getting better, in time these kids will come, still way to young.

Ages 21-26 are the biggest in America, ------> this is the best thesis for pent up demand... not this cycle but in a few years

Supply of properly aged buyers

Just like 1996-2007 demographics with prime age labor force growth

blowmeironvagina says

MANY areas are showing low inventory, and all that needs to matter to you

This is true, many areas have low inventory, especially higher priced areas,

= Selling Equity Thesis is in those areas...

Move up buyer is chasing a higher priced home so you run models on how much equity is baseline needed, if you want to use the outdated affordabity index

Then their is Trump

Trump: If I win, Yellen's days at the Fed will be numbered ....... #NeverTrump

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36844-trump-if-i-win-yellens-days-at-the-fed-will-be-numbered?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=housingwire