patrick.net

ALERT!!
Obama Admits Couldn't "Convince Americans Of 'Recovery", ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-28/obama-admits-couldnt-convince-americans-recovery-bashes-big-short

-1.2 % TODAY

-0.3 % TODAY 4/29

All my stuff is history. The all time high Real Dow was 114.40 for February 2015 (calendar mo. avg.). Why don't you predict some future!
Numbers are here
http://ShowRealHist.com/TABLEnum.html

Expressing historical prices in units of consumer purchasing power is always 'right'.
I predict nothing. The past is commonly used as 'input' to figuring about the future; my Real Dow chart aids that, as intended.
You have used the chart to draw inference (your #2.).
A past that looks like Real Dow deserves BIG VISIBILITY.

-0.6 % TODAY

Level = 111.3 TODAY, May 6, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.1 TODAY, May 11, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Why don't you post the corporate profitability, inflation adjusted, over the same time period and see how that looks compared to the Dow.

That would be a much more useful graph as stocks should move with profits (or cash flow really)--not necessarily with inflation.

I update this chart from the WSJ:

It was stunning at a glance, and it still is!
It suggests 'the coming & going of irrationality', which is further evidenced here:

http://www.showrealhist.com/3warnsRD.html

"The public be damned" has evolved. It is now "The public be suckered".

tatupu70,
FYI, see this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-12/milton-berg-we-are-cusp-30-year-bear-market

I'm shocked. zerohedge is bearish? Stop the presses.

Here's a typical misleading quote:

If you look at where yields were thirty, fourty years ago when you got five, six, seven percent and now you're getting one percent, one and a half percent yield, way over valued."

He doesn't mention what the "risk free" rate was 30 or 40 years ago however. With interest rates near all time lows, of course stocks are higher.

About this it was said

"WOW!! I don't like that, plot something else!"

Level = 110.0 TODAY, May 13, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

TODAY = -1.0%

Level = 109.3, May 20, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

ttsmyf says

Level = 109.3, May 20, 2016

Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

What about the dividends? Factor that in and the index will jump to 150.

This was in the WSJ in 1999.

I update it. VERY instructive, I say!
"The coming & going of irrationality" is
well-evidenced.

Level = 111.5, May 25, 2016

Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.4, May 26, 2016

Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.1, May 31, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.4, June 2, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.2, June 3, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.9, June 6, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 112.0, June 7, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 112.4, June 8, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 112.3, June 9, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.5, June 10, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 110.7, June 13, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 110.1, June 15, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 110.0, June 17, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/dp.aspx

Does anyone think there is an increase in risk for deflation?

I have been purchasing properties mostly at 80%LTV. Not overly concerned, but I would hate to carry debt in a deflation environment. All my properties are being rented out with positive yield and I don't really believe rental rates will go down, maybe stay flat, but they have been going up and I think they will continue to go up.

Did some research at the Atlanta Fed website (graph above) and suddenly there is a 12-13% deflation probability.

Hi CC,
I don't know!
Usually one uses the past as important input for supposing the future ..., BUT the massive market manipulation since early 2009 evident in the Real Dow chart suggests 'anything is possible', IMO.
My thinking is safety first, trust not. Remember, this is kept unseen:

Level = 110.8, June 20, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 110.6, June 22, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 112.1, June 23, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

It has never been more clear that the cost of living has skyrocketed, regardless of how we currently measure "inflation"

Level = 108.3, June 24, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000
Price fell 3.4% today.

Level = 106.6, June 27, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.5, June 30, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.7, July 1, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.0, July 5, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000